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Daily Quant | 2013 | June
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2013 June

The Globe: Friday, June 28, 2013

Posted by | Globe at a Glance | No Comments

The Globe

2 ETFs switched from negative YTD to positive. These countries include Indonesia, Philippines. 5 ETFs changed from positive to now negative YTD. These countries include Belgium, China, Finland, France, Sweden. Last week, Finland had the largest loss with a loss of -5.63%. Mexico saw the largest gain across the globe with a gain of 9.02%. The average change last week was 0.28%.

The Global Markets

GlobalMarkets_2013-06-28
Country Ticker Name YTD Last Quarter Last Week
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares -10.18% 7.56% -0.62%
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares -23.17% 5.29% -1.68%
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -10.78% -5.44% -5.25%
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -1.66% 2.38% -2.99%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares -21.59% -2.61% -0.18%
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares -23.56% -1.33% 1.53%
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares -7.92% 0.39% -0.61%
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares -11.74% -2.33% -0.72%
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -14.94% 2.64% 5.20%
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares -2.68% 2.99% -3.66%
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares -15.97% -6.67% 1.73%
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares -19.60% -8.70% -0.67%
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares -15.75% -6.58% 0.67%
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 7.22% 8.07% -0.72%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares -2.60% 2.10% -5.63%
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares -1.19% -1.61% -2.10%
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 0.00% -0.93% -1.24%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 5.71% 5.19% -0.61%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares -5.66% 2.16% 0.11%
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 2.74% 7.16% 0.37%
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares -10.48% -4.16% 2.98%
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares -10.44% -3.53% 2.62%
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 3.01% 15.14% 5.63%
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 14.43% 13.31% -0.03%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 2.55% 7.85% -1.29%
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares -12.19% -12.27% -2.72%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 15.08% 10.77% 0.90%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 13.55% 10.15% 0.67%
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 11.83% 15.41% 0.40%
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 2.78% -1.06% 1.50%
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -7.50% 5.76% 9.02%
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 1.41% 0.39% -0.67%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -3.01% 7.78% -0.09%
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares -7.32% 1.07% -2.92%
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares -25.61% -3.12% 0.26%
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 1.45% 19.11% 5.64%
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -17.89% -13.23% -2.21%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares -18.77% -7.02% -1.64%
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares -6.57% 1.97% 0.55%
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares -4.03% 6.17% 0.66%
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares -18.36% -10.80% 5.58%
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares -16.02% -6.19% 3.70%
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares -8.49% -6.48% -2.71%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares -1.29% 7.65% -2.71%
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 6.90% 9.55% -0.14%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares -2.35% -2.06% 3.99%
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -4.91% 10.44% 3.94%
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -11.05% 6.60% 2.10%
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares -1.56% 1.84% -1.40%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 5.83% 8.12% -0.58%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 12.40% 9.94% 0.12%
2013-06-28 ModelReturns

The Daily: Friday, June 28, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

Market Comments

Yesterday extended the rally as the market traded into the 1618.45 level I discussed yesterday. From here, the market traded largely between the R2 and R3 levels of the day before closing on the R2 level of 1613.20. The high on Thursday was 1620.07. There is a 60 percent probability that that was the high of this sequence. However, if a new high is rendered today it should not exceed the 1624.65 level. The pattern suggests that a 3 session decline will unfold if the market remains below the 1624.65 level today. In this event, it would indicate a retracement toward the 1598/1588 levels. The configuration will remain in a sidewise pattern between the 1560/1624 levels for at least 10 more sessions. Today is a weekly and monthly close. Should the close today be above the 1598.25 level then it will set a bullish tone for early next week. A close below 1579.70 will be negative. For the month, a close above the 1624.64 level will be necessary for a bullish tone for the month of July and a close below the 1598 level will be negative. A close between these levels will be neutral. The markets should open flat to higher indicating a lower close if the market remains below the 1620.70 level today.

S&P 500 for 06/27/2013

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1628.15
R3 1624.65
R2 1620.70
Resistance R1 1616.75
Prior Close 1613.20 + 9.94
Support S1 1609.70
S2 1605.70
S3 1601.75
SX 1598.25

The Daily: Thursday, June 27, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

Market Comments

Yesterday’s action saw a continuation of the recovery rally that began three sessions ago. As I mentioned on Tuesday, the expectation was for a rally back toward the 1603/1606 level which represents a 50 percent retracement of the decline that began last Wednesday from 1654 to the low of 1560.33 reached on Monday. These levels have been satisfied but there still is a 40 percent probability for a continuation toward the 1618.45 level before this sequence will be complete. Should a lower close be rendered today, then this will suggest that a 3 to 5 session decline toward the 1583/1577 levels will unfold. There is a 40 percent probability for the market to retest the 1560 lows of Monday. The configuration suggests there will most likely be a minor decline toward the 1583/1577 levels then a rebound to test the highs of this sequence before making a larger directional move. The extreme allowed in this pattern is the 1638.40 level to keep the consolidation pattern intact. Should this level not be penetrated, then the intermediate pattern suggests that the market is likely to move toward the lower targets of 1530/1509 over the next 8 to 12 weeks. The markets should open higher. Expect a lower close to be rendered if the market remains below 1613.20 level today.  

S&P 500 for 06/26/2013

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1623.15
R3 1618.45
R2 1613.20
Resistance R1 1607.95
Prior Close 1603.26 +15.23
Support S1 1598.55
S2 1593.30
S3 1588.05
SX 1583.95

Разновидности Рулетки

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Разновидности Рулетки

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The Daily: Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

Market Comments

Yesterday’s action traded higher for the entire session as expected. The configuration suggests that a further rebound is likely toward the 1599.15/1605.00 levels. Should this occur today then a top would be indicated and a 3 to 5 day decline begin. However, a close above 1605 will signal an extended rally toward the 1614/1620 levels. There currently is only a 30 percent probability for that to occur. The pattern suggests that it will be difficult to get back above the 1600 level, indicating a high probability of a downward reversal in the next two sessions. If the market renders a new high above the 1594 level today and then reverses to close lower, then this will confirm a decline to retest the 1560 lows made three sessions ago. The critical level today on the downside is the 1576.95 level. A penetration will signal much lower prices. The markets should open lower. Expect a higher close to be rendered if the market remains below the 1605.00 level today.

S&P 500 for 06/25/2013

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1610.25
R3 1605.00
R2 1599.15
Resistance R1 1593.30
Prior Close 1588.03 +14.94
Support S1 1582.80
S2 1576.95
S3 1571.05
SX 1565.80

The Daily: Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

Market Comments

Yesterday’s action continued the sharp drop in prices from last week by testing the critical pivot level of 1559.10 with an intraday low of 1660.33. The market rebounded from these levels toward the 1584 level before settling back at 1573.09. The configuration suggests that if 1559.10 holds today then a minor rally back toward the 1588/1596 levels will develop. There is currently only a 40 percent probability for the market to get above the 1603.20 level in the next 3 to 5 sessions. Should the 1559.10 level be penetrated then a decline toward the 1550.15 level will be signaled. The expectations are for a minor trading range to setup between the 1559.10/1606.30 levels. Once this is completed then a decline toward the 1509/1480 level will unfold. The pattern will take a minimum of at least 2 to 3 weeks to form. The markets should open flat to lower. Expect a higher close to be rendered if the market remains above the 1559.10 level today.

S&P 500 for 06/24/2013

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1603.20
R3 1596.60
R2 1588.15
Resistance R1 1580.10
Prior Close 1573.09 -19.34
Support S1 1565.95
S2 1559.10
S3 1550.15
SX 1541.00

The Weekly Brief: Monday, June 24, 2013

Posted by | The Weekly Brief | No Comments

Market Overview

YTD Performance S&P 500 Pacing

The Tipping Point!

Last week’s action continued under pressure as the S&P shed 2.1 percent for the week. I have been discussing for the past several weeks that the market has been locked in a trading range. However, in the last week’s Podcast and in Thursday’s commentary, I warned about the risk if the market were to penetrate the 1598 lows of three weeks ago. This occurred and we traded sharply lower under heavy volume, pushing the market to close below the 1598 level. This has triggered a massive exodus by the VPM Database. Those of you that have been around for several years understand the magnitude of VPM issuing 5956 sell signals. I have written about how the database needed to remain above the 62% bullish level. Last week was at 61.7% just below the critical level. With the exits for today it will be at 45.67%. A collapse in the database holding at this level suggests that this is major turning point. Typically, this is how an end of a major move occurs. While there had been continued expectations of higher prices when the S&P 500 hit the 1650+ levels objective discussed in the 2013 market outlook that we released earlier this year,  this satisfied these objectives. The action after the market spiked in May has been extremely volatile, suggesting a major consolidation was unfolding. With last week’s action and close below the 1598 level, we have now instantly entered into a new phase of the markets. Over the past 4 weeks the VPM models have been scaling back risk.  In this span of time, VPM has issued 11,207 exits. 2013-06-24_Trades_by_Week

By the Box

YTD Performance
Performance Divergence
2013-06-24_StyleBoxes2

S&P 500 for the week of 06/17/2013

2013-06-24_PriorWeek 2013-06-24_PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week’s action:

Monday

The market opened higher and traded with a firm tone with all market participants focused on the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rumors were flowing all over the street that the Fed was not going to modify the bond purchase program. As a result, the market moved higher and remained higher in a fearless mode as the major averages ended the session with solid gains with the S&P 500 up 0.8%. The highlight of the session was Netflix as they made an announcement of a deal with DreamWorks, pushing the stock up 7.1%.

Tuesday

More of the same as the markets opened higher and maintained a steady climb right into the close, pushing the S&P 500 up 0.8 percent for the second session. Everyone was expecting Chairman Bernanke to have mostly dovish words for the markets on Wednesday after the release of the outcome of the two day meeting. Once again another fearless trading session as the market was positioned to move higher into the meeting results on Wednesday.

Wednesday

The market opened unchanged and was locked in a range prior to the FOMC statement and the press conference by Bernanke. However, things began to change once the FOMC statement was released at 2pm. While the statement was mostly as expected, as always there were just a few items the market participants decided were import. The initial response was negative, pushing yields higher and stocks lower. A significant bid was in the US dollar. Most of the comments suggested that conditions have continued to improve which triggered traders to sell stocks and bonds. The Press conference by Bernanke was embarrassing as questions in the Q & A session began. The more he talked, the lower the market went. The market participants didn’t believe a word and the market collapsed and yields moved toward the 2.33 level by the end of the session.

Thursday

Things just got worse as global shares sold off overnight triggering a sharply lower open and the selling continued through the session. Yields continued to rise as they pushed toward the 2.4+ levels on the treasury rates. This triggered heavy selling in Consumer Staples, Utilities, Gold and silver. The metals had a flash back to the collapse back in mid-April with gold hitting 1280 and silver at 19.59 per ounce. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost 2.5 percent on the session.

Friday

The market opened higher but was unable to get back above the 1600 level. It then faded back to render new lows for this move to the 1584 levels. The tech sector was under heavy pressure with Oracle down 9.3 percent. The market rebounded mid-session as they held onto moderate gains at the end of the session to close up by 0.3%. The big story was in the bonds as yields on the 10-year reached 2.51 percent. You have to go back to August of 2011 to find yields at this level. Expect the volatility to continue this week. After the sharp drop, we should see a moderate rebound. Market sentiment will likely continue to deteriorate.

S&P 500 for 06/21/2013

2013-06-21.2 Friday’s action started higher, but was unable to penetrate the 1600 level with an intraday high of 1599.19. The market sold off sharply at the open to reach a low of 1577.70 before rebounding to close at the 1592.43 level. The configuration suggests that the market is likely to trade back and retest the 1577.60 level over the next two sessions. However, should the market remain above the 1577.60 level for the next two sessions, then a rally toward the 1606/1620 level will unfold. A penetration of the 1577.60 level will signal a move to test the 1570.70 pivot point. A penetration will trigger a sharp move toward the 1559.10 level. The intermediate charts indicate that last week’s market action has negated the targets of the 1697/1711 levels and now a decline toward the 1530/1509 levels is likely. The close below the 1598 level has indicated that an intermediate to long term high has been achieved and further declines will unfold to a minimum of the level of 1559.10. Should the 1559.10 level be penetrated then 1530/1509 levels will be reached in the next several weeks. With the outside reversal that was signaled from last week, a lower close this week will signal at least 2 to 3 more weeks of lower prices giving a 60% probability for the market to decline to a minimum of 1559.10. The markets should open lower. Expect a higher close to be rendered if the market remains above the 1577.60 level today.

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 1647.60
R3 1634.55
R2 1620.00
Resistance R1 1605.45
Prior Close 1592.43 -34.30
Support S1 1579.40
S2 1564.85
S3 1550.30
ES 1537.30

Today’s Key Levels

ER 1620.90
R3 1614.15
R2 1606.65
Resistance R1 1599.15
Prior Close 1592.43 +4.28
Support S1 1585.70
S2 1578.20
S3 1570.70
ES 1563.00

The Globe: Friday, June 21, 2013

Posted by | Globe at a Glance | No Comments

The Globe

No countries switched from negative YTD to positive. 5 ETFs changed from positive to now negative YTD. These countries include Indonesia, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, United Kingdom. Last week, Poland had the largest loss with a loss of -10.02%. Japan saw the largest gain across the globe with a gain of 2.42%. The average change last week was -4.41%.

The Global Markets

GlobalMarkets_2013-06-14
Country Ticker Name YTD Last Quarter Last Week
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares -9.63% 7.56% -5.10%
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares -21.86% 5.29% -5.79%
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -5.83% -5.44% -4.19%
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 1.37% 2.38% -4.29%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares -21.45% -2.61% -7.75%
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares -24.71% -1.33% -9.90%
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares -7.36% 0.39% -3.91%
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares -11.11% -2.33% -3.76%
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -19.15% 2.64% -7.61%
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 1.02% 2.99% -2.21%
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares -17.40% -6.67% -4.49%
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares -19.06% -8.70% -3.62%
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares -16.31% -6.58% -3.91%
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 8.01% 8.07% -4.74%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares 3.21% 2.10% -3.09%
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares 0.93% -1.61% -4.45%
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 1.26% -0.93% -4.69%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 6.36% 5.19% -4.54%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares -5.77% 2.16% -3.33%
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 2.36% 7.16% -2.64%
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares -13.08% -4.16% -4.88%
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares -12.73% -3.53% -5.27%
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -2.48% 15.14% -6.41%
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 14.47% 13.31% -2.15%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 3.89% 7.85% -4.03%
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares -9.74% -12.27% -5.08%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 14.05% 10.77% 2.39%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 12.79% 10.15% 2.42%
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 11.38% 15.41% 2.23%
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 1.26% -1.06% -3.34%
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -15.16% 5.76% -7.64%
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 2.10% 0.39% -3.72%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -2.92% 7.78% -4.44%
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares -4.54% 1.07% -5.99%
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares -25.81% -3.12% -6.48%
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -3.97% 19.11% -4.66%
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -16.04% -13.23% -10.02%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares -17.42% -7.02% -1.96%
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares -7.09% 1.97% -3.93%
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares -4.67% 6.17% -3.41%
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares -22.67% -10.80% -3.91%
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares -19.02% -6.19% -5.32%
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares -5.95% -6.48% -5.26%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares 1.46% 7.65% -7.01%
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 7.05% 9.55% -3.92%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares -6.09% -2.06% -3.40%
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -8.51% 10.44% -6.56%
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -12.88% 6.60% -9.32%
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares -0.17% 1.84% -4.22%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 6.45% 8.12% -3.62%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 12.27% 9.94% -2.03%
2013-06-21 ModelReturns
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