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Daily Quant | 2013 | July
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2013 July

The Daily: Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments
2013-07-30.2

Market Comments

Yesterday’s action unfolded as expected. Market participants focused on the release of the Fed comments and Bernanke’s conference as the market traded in a narrow choppy range. As I mentioned in yesterday’s comments, Monday’s lower close has placed the market in a side wise pattern until after the release by the Fed tomorrow. While we are likely to see a reaction to the Fed’s comments, the pattern could extend into Friday’s open after the release of the employment numbers. I believe the big story this week will likely be in the Treasury market.  There are new projections suggesting that yields will move higher toward 3.20% with an extreme of 3.50% to 3.65%. The pattern suggests we could even see the 2.79 level challenged this week. While there may be a negative reaction to a rise in yields, should it occur I continue to believe that longer term this is a positive for stocks. As I have discussed over the past couple of weeks, the projections for the S&P 500 is for a rally to the 1750/1775 levels with an extreme of 1810. The pattern continues to suggest that we should see these prices sometime in late Q3 or Q4 this year. As long as the market remains above 1669.10 on a closing basis, the probabilities will continue to support prices moving above the 1700 level. The financials have been leading the rally over that past couple of quarters as these higher rates offer more opportunity for the banks and other institutions that rely on spreads between the short and long rates. This also will show that the economy is normalizing after 5 years of an artificial economy and fiscal support by the Federal Reserve though the QE program. The critical level today on the S&P 500 is the 1680.00 level. A penetration would suggest a move toward the lower levels of support between 1676 and 1674. I don’t expect that a move below the 1674 level will be likely prior to the employment numbers on Friday. The upside should also be capped at the 1697.85 level until the after the release of the employment numbers on Friday. All probabilities point to a close above the 1700 level on Friday. The markets should open flat to lower indicating a higher close if the market remains above the 1680.00 level today.  

Today's Key Levels

RX 1697.85
R3 1695.05
R2 1691.90
Resistance R1 1688.75
Prior Close   1685.96 +0.63
Support S1 1683.15
S2 1680.00
S3 1676.90
SX 1674.10

The Daily: Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments
2013-07-29.2

Market Comments

Yesterday’s action came under pressure within the first hour of trading. Most of the selling was absorbed by the close of the second hour. A moderate rally attempt got the market back to about 50 percent of the losses for the day, but faded into the close to settle at 1685.33, down 6.32 on the session. As I mentioned in yesterday’s comments, it was critical that the market close higher to confirm the outside reversal session on Friday. The lower close has negated the pattern and suggests that a retest of the 1676.25 level rendered last week. This level should hold and the markets are likely to continue in a sidewise pattern until after the press conference by Bernanke on Wednesday. Most likely this event combined with the employment report on Friday will be the ultimate decision maker for the direction of the markets. The probabilities still point to higher prices above the 1700 level but it will be important that the market doesn’t penetrate the 1669.10 level. Should this level hold then expect the market to close above the 1700 level on Friday. The markets should open flat to higher indicating a higher close if the market remains above 1679.40 level today.  

Today's Key Levels

RX 1697.50
R3 1694.45
R2 1691.30
Resistance R1 1688.15
Prior Close   1685.33 -6.32
Support S1 1682.50
S2 1679.40
S3 1676.25
SX 1673.40

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Weekly Research as of 2013-07-29

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2013-07-22 Major Markets

Major Markets

Major Markets Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
MSCI EAFE Index  EFA 513.021 60.8 2012-07-02 50.13 21.29%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM 195.501 39.83
S&P 500 Index SPY 148.779 169.11 2013-01-28 150.33 12.49%
S&P MidCap 400 Index MDY 219.335 223.29 2013-01-07 191.44 16.64%
S&P SmallCap 600 Index IJR 114.54 96.77 2012-12-24 77.98 24.10%

2013-07-22 The Globe

 

The Globe

Country Ticker Name ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares 112.214 24.05
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 18.351 20.36
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 143.913 17.46
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 119.351 14.29 2012-07-02 11.53 23.94%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares 247.944 44.66
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 43.823 21.24
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares 105.134 28.04
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 1.575 22.2
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 127.659 50.81
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 81.488 41.16
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares 129.547 43.88
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares 238.845 34.72
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares 142.23 43.28
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 658.746 37.25
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares 263.916 27.17
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares 106.483 25.51
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 107.266 26.31
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 64.67 34.28
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares 163.552 19.27
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 502.343 27.73
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares 88.216 23.98
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares 47.575 22.95
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 86.825 29.66
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 7.716 30.81 2012-09-10 22.07 39.60%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 204.759 44.82
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares 131.82 13.09
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 151.476 11.38 2012-12-31 9.66 17.81%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 81.285 49.02
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 60.433 50.86
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 720.513 15.76
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 180.466 67.39
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 78.171 22.74 2013-07-22 22.57 0.75%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 100 36.15
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares 217.786 29.3
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares 195.205 32.9
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 165.74 37.29
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 208.729 26.7 2013-07-22 26.48 0.83%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares 74.583 20.6
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares 241.981 13.45
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares 61.443 29.4
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares 125.229 59.9
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares 101.262 56.44
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares 108.613 31.14
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares 189.797 33.28 2012-12-10 28.91 15.12%
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 208.734 29.79 2012-09-04 23.75 25.43%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares 84.727 13.73
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 554.088 79.89
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 928.249 56.99
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares 178.856 18.93 2013-07-22 18.95 -0.11%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 152.167 35.04 2013-07-15 34.35 2.01%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 195.514 170.02 2013-04-08 156.01 8.98%
 

2013-07-22 Commodities Comparison

Commodities

Commodity Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Gold GLD 200.895 128.78
Oil OIL 256.621 24.58 2013-07-08 23.86 3.02%
Silver SLV 108.206 19.32
   

2013-07-22 Diversified Assets

Diversified Assets

Mutual Fund Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Commodities Broad Basket DXCLX 119.508 52.22
Diversified Emerging Mkts GBFAX 292.287 13.26
Foreign Large Value FIVLX 205.029 8.33
Foreign Small/Mid Value QUSOX 495.944 10.69
Global Real Estate FIRAX 123.109 10.22
Large Blend PIXAX 585.489 6.75 2013-07-15 6.68 1.05%
Large Growth IWIRX 105.532 26.19 2012-09-10 20.275 29.17%
VHCAX 160.944 99.42 2012-09-10 74.421 33.59%
Large Value CAMAX 198.61 13.53 2012-12-24 10.88 24.36%
SFLNX 195.382 13.15 2012-09-10 10.469 25.61%
Real Estate KSRAX 241.998 29.65 2013-07-15 29.79 -0.47%
Small Blend FSCRX 171.075 29.08 2012-09-10 21.658 34.27%
   

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The Globe: Friday, July 26, 2013

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The Globe

3 ETFs switched from negative YTD to positive. These countries include China, Spain, Taiwan. No countries changed from positive to now negative YTD. Last week, Japan had the largest loss with a loss of -4.77%. Spain saw the largest gain across the globe with a gain of 7.38%. The average change last week was 0.87%.

The Global Markets

GlobalMarkets_2013-07-26  
Country Ticker Name YTD Last Quarter Last Week
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares -4.34% -16.49% 2.12%
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares -16.49% -27.04% 0.05%
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -4.01% -5.64% 2.52%
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 3.18% -3.95% 0.63%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares -20.16% -19.49% 2.15%
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares -23.60% -22.53% 1.48%
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares -1.27% -8.28% 0.47%
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares -5.89% -9.64% 2.54%
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -19.66% -17.13% -1.59%
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 0.17% -5.51% 2.24%
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares -11.62% -9.97% 2.05%
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares -14.17% -11.94% 2.97%
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares -10.76% -9.82% 3.05%
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 16.48% -0.78% 1.14%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares 3.82% -4.60% -0.88%
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares 8.14% 0.43% 3.11%
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 6.52% 0.94% 0.53%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 11.84% 0.50% 1.24%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares -0.77% -7.66% 2.94%
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 3.97% -4.13% 0.22%
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares -8.58% -6.60% -1.28%
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares -7.87% -7.16% -0.95%
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -1.98% -10.53% -1.56%
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 22.80% 0.98% 2.60%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 6.97% -4.91% -0.75%
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares -2.68% 0.08% 4.22%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 16.72% 3.89% -4.77%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 15.48% 3.08% -4.65%
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 14.60% -3.10% -2.66%
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 4.16% 3.87% 0.00%
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -4.45% -12.54% 1.97%
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 10.87% 1.02% 1.16%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 4.54% -10.01% 2.32%
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares 0.69% -8.30% 0.31%
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares -28.29% -23.22% 2.94%
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 7.96% -14.83% 2.61%
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -9.86% -5.37% 1.68%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares -12.90% -12.64% -2.65%
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares -1.75% -8.38% 2.05%
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares -1.97% -9.61% 1.38%
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares -16.32% -8.47% 1.96%
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares -10.91% -10.48% 2.79%
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares 2.91% -2.16% 7.38%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares 10.20% -8.31% 2.05%
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 11.16% -2.42% -0.20%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares 0.81% -0.30% 1.70%
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -3.15% -13.90% -0.39%
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -14.66% -16.56% -4.30%
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares 5.52% -3.34% 0.32%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 14.70% -2.12% 0.26%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 18.79% 2.24% -0.08%

The Daily: Friday, July 26, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2013-07-25.2Market Comments

Yesterday’s action tested the key 1680.90 level twice. The first test was early in the session as it hit 1680.38 then rallied to the 1688.76 level. From here, the market sold off and printed a new low at 1680.07 but then reversed again, closing higher on the session at the 1690.25 level. The rally stopped just short of the projected R2 resistance level of 1691.00 with a high of 1690.96. The higher close yesterday has signaled a rally to test the 1698.78 highs with a 60 percent probability to rally above the 1700 level and test the RX at the 1701.70 level. The expectations were for a short lived and shallow correction. This is what unfolded with yesterday’s close. This has indicated an upward reversal pattern and a higher close today will confirm the projections mentioned above. As I have mentioned over the past several sessions, the short-term target for this rally is the 1704/1711 range with an extreme of 1735. The critical level on the downside today is the 1684.50 level. A penetration will signal a minor pattern failure and lower prices (only a 40 percent probability for today). The markets should open flat to higher indicating a higher close if the market remains above 1684.50 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1701.70
R3 1699.00
R2 1696.00
Resistance R1 1692.95
Prior Close   1690.25 + 4.31
Support S1 1687.55
S2 1684.50
S3 1681.45
SX 1678.80

The Daily: Thursday, July 25, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2013-07-24.2

Market Comments

The market opened higher testing the R3 resistance at 1698.15 with a high of 1698.38. A reversal occurred from this level in the first 5 minutes of trading and began a steady decline penetrating the extreme support at the 1684.85 level with a low of 1682.57. As I discussed yesterday, the market was likely to enter into a sidewise to downward pattern. The sharp downward reversal and lower close confirms that this pattern has begun. This suggests that today is likely to be the bottom of the pattern and should not exceed the 1675.80 level. Should this level be penetrated, then an extended decline toward the 1668 level will be signaled. There is only a 30 percent probability for that to occur today. The key pivot on the upside is now the 1696.05 level. A penetration will signal a rally to the 1704/1711 levels. Should the 1680.90 level hold today and a higher close be rendered, then this will suggest a rally into Friday’s close. The markets should open flat to lower indicating a higher close if the market remains above 1680.90 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1696.05
R3 1693.70
R2 1691.00
Resistance R1 1688.35
Prior Close   1685.94 -6.45
Support S1 1690.60
S2 1688.65
S3 1686.60
SX 1684.85
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