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Daily Quant | 2013 | August
writings

2013 August

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The Daily: Friday, August 30, 2013

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2013-08-29.2 As we finish what has been a volatile week, there is one big question for market participants to answer; and it doesn’t have anything to do with economics. The question today for the traders and investors is, Do I want to stay in for the weekend? As I mentioned in the podcast last evening, I believe the technical patterns suggest that the market will continue in a positive trend if a minimum close above the 1644.60 level is rendered today; otherwise there could be more downside moving into September.  However, predicting if the US will bomb Syria this week or not is anyone’s guess. But I believe as long as the UN inspectors are on the ground then the US will not take any action. So, most likely the markets will remain stable. While there are two economic reports coming out today, (the consumer sentiment and the Chicago PMI) neither are really likely to have any significant impact. It is likely market participants will be watching the news for events out of the middle east rather than the economy. It appears that some of the major indices could be close to an exit if the market closes below the 1639.80 level which would happen if we closed flat today. While, I don’t expect a massive exit of any sort, some of the indexes have been under pressure.  So, it will be important that the market remains above the 1644.60 level. If the market closes above the 1650.60 level, then that would confirm a further retracement rally toward the 1666/1674 levels for next week. Yesterday’s action was able to trade higher and penetrate the 1644.50 level moving up to a high of 1646.41. Shortly after reaching this level, the market drifted lower into the close. The action into the last hour was very chaotic, setting up an unorthodox pattern.  The failure to remain above the 1644.50 level yesterday has placed the market in a vulnerable position as we end the week and the month of August. The long term charts show that the month of August was the worst month of the year. Yet the decline came from a historic high which carries a lessor impact.  It would take a penetration of 1604.57 to signal a major high. There is only a 20 percent probability for that to occur. The key support on the downside is the 1629.40 level. If penetrated, then a new low for this sequence would be rendered, signaling further downside with a target of the 1620/1616 levels for today. As I mentioned in yesterday’s comments, the short-term trend is down but after the last two sessions it has begun to form a minor bottom. This suggests that if the market remains above the S2 support at the 1629.40 level for the first three hours then a higher close will be rendered. The markets should open flat to higher, indicating a higher close, if the market remains above the 1629.40 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1655.75
R3 1651.60
R2 1646.95
Resistance R1 1642.30
Prior Close   1638.17 +3.21
Support S1 1634.00
S2 1629.40
S3 1624.75
SX 1620.16

The Daily: Thursday, August 29, 2013

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2013-08-28.2Most of yesterday’s action continued to be focused on Syria. However, some relief came as it is uncertain that the US will strike Syria due to the veto at the UN by Russia. Regardless of this event, the US is posturing in moving forward with some sort of attack to keep some respect.  Should actions be taken, the fear is still the counter attacks threatened by Syria and Iran.  This will most likely be hanging over the market for the next several sessions or even weeks depending how it plays out. Yesterday’s action was able to trade into a new low for this sequence just above the yesterday’s S1 support level at 1626.80 with a low of 1627.47.  The market reversed from this level to close higher, but just above a minimum level to suggest there will be a continuation of the upward retracement rally for at least 1 to 2 more sessions. The 1644.50 level will be critical in the pattern. A penetration will indicate that the market will be able to move toward the 1647.90/1652.55 levels. The configuration suggests that failure to penetrate the 1644.50 level in the next two sessions will set the tone for further decline toward the 1622/1618 levels.  The potential downside for this sequence is at the 1608/1602 levels with an extreme of 1594. It is critical that the market close higher today to signal a continuation of this pattern.  Failure to close higher will suggest a move toward the 1618/1612 levels. This event would also suggest that there will be at least three more sessions of lower prices. As I mentioned yesterday, the action on Wednesday was a key pivot session and there was not enough evidence that a low is in place. Today’s action is most important as a higher close will keep an upward bias in the market. It is important to understand that while the short-term trend (daily) is negative, the intermediate trends are neutral as long as it doesn’t trade below 1595.  This suggests that most likely the pattern is for a trading range to develop over the next 2 to 4 weeks. The pattern that sets up from this sequence will show the way to how the market will trade into Q4 and if a major top is forming.  For now, the long term trend (monthly) is positive and likely to keep the market from declining much more that the 1595 levels over the next several weeks. The markets should open flat to higher indicating a higher close if the market remains above the 1630.95 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1651.85
R3 1647.90
R2 1643.40
Resistance R1 1638.95
Prior Close   1634.96 + 4.48
Support S1 1630.95
S2 1626.50
S3 1622.05
SX 1618.05

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The Daily: Wednesday, August 28, 2013

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2013-08-27.2 Yesterday’s action expressed the anxiety about the Syrian situation, triggering heavy liquidation and a flight to quality. The sharp decline penetrated the critical level at the 1631 level and closed below it at 1630.48.  This close has signaled a larger decline. Today is a critical day as it has a potential to signal a minor bottom by closing higher. Should this occur, it will signal a minor 3 to 5 day rally toward the 1655/1664 levels. However, the probabilities point to a lower close which will confirm at least two more sessions of lower prices. There is the potential for 5 more before a low will be reached. Economics do not matter for now as this potential “Black Swan” event with Syria will dominate. No one knows if the administration has the conviction to take action or not. The real issue is the response by Syria and others itself. Do they lash out at Israel or fire missiles at our warships? Most are aware they just received a shipment of high tech missiles that are capable of hitting targets 150 miles away. This is the reason market participants are worried. It is because of the potential responses from Iran, Russia, China and Israel. This situation could escalate quickly. You can see the flight to quality in Gold and treasuries.  This fear is real and market participants will be waiting and watching. The technical configuration suggest that a decline toward the 1601/1695 level is likely and could be a reality faster than one would expect.  A lower close today will suggest a minimum decline toward the 1622/1614 levels over the next couple of sessions. Yesterday’s action closed below a key number and also penetrated the projected low of the week at 1632.20.  This has not occurred since back in June.  This suggests that major patterns are failing. Market participants are taking this opportunity to act out all of their fears. There are massive amount of issues coming into this window of time with the debt ceiling, tapering and now a potential war. These are big issues and the treasury secretary made it clear on Tuesday’s on CNBC that the administration is not going to negotiate on the debt ceiling so the political posturing has already begun and battle lines are being drawn. The markets should open flat to lower indicating a lower close if the market remains below the 1638.30 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1646.15
R3 1642.45
R2 1638.30
Resistance R1 1634.20
Prior Close   1630.48 -26.30
Support S1 1626.80
S2 1622.65
S3 1618.50
SX 1614.80

The Daily: Tuesday, August 27, 2013

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  2013-08-26.2Yesterday’s action traded higher early in the session reaching 1669.51, just below the key R2 upward pivot point of 1670.50.  This positive tone was in spite of the negative news that the durable goods orders declined by 7.3 percent in July. The market traded sidewise until the Secretary of State made aggressive comments about the situation in Syria. This combined with the durable goods orders was all it took to trigger heavy selling as the market began to decline toward the lows of the session and closed just off the lows at 1656.78. The original set up was for a 3 to 5 day rally. The market needed to close above the 1671 level to signal a full retracement of the decline and move toward the 1680/1687 levels. Yesterday’s reversal suggests that the pattern was a 3 day rally and now a 5 session decline will begin if a lower close is rendered today. The inability for the market to penetrate the 1671 level suggests that the next decline will challenge the 1639 level and ultimately test the critical pivot point at the 1631 level. The pattern set up suggests that there is a 60 percent probability for a new low in the sequence below 1639.43. Should this level be penetrated, then the last line of defense is the 1631 level. A penetration of this level will indicate a decline as low as 1604/1592. The markets should open flat to lower indicating a lower close if the market remains below the 1663.15 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1669.50
R3 1666.45
R2 1663.15
Resistance R1 1659.75
Prior Close   1656.78 -6.72
Support S1 1653.80
S2 1650.45
S3 1647.10
SX 1644.15

Weekly Research as of Monday, August 26, 2013

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2013-07-22 Major Markets

Major Markets

Major Markets Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
MSCI EAFE Index EFA 513.021 61.57 2012-07-02 50.13 22.82%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM 195.501 38.65
S&P 500 Index SPY 148.779 166.62 2013-01-28 150.33 10.84%
S&P MidCap 400 Index MDY 219.335 221.78 2013-01-07 191.44 15.85%
S&P SmallCap 600 Index IJR 114.54 96.8 2012-12-24 77.98 24.13%

2013-07-22 The Globe

 

The Globe

Country Ticker Name ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares 112.214 23.93
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 18.351 20.97
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 143.913 18.76 2013-08-12 18.27 2.68%
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 119.351 15.28 2012-07-02 11.53 32.52%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares 247.944 43.78
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 43.823 19.99
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares 105.134 27.68 2013-08-19 27.94 -0.93%
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 1.575 22.67 2013-08-23 22.67 0.00%
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 127.659 47.99
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 81.488 42.39
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares 129.547 45.35 2013-08-19 45.84 -1.07%
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares 238.845 35.65 2013-08-19 36.36 -1.95%
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares 142.23 44.18 2013-08-19 44.92 -1.65%
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 658.746 39.31 2013-08-19 39.33 -0.05%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares 263.916 28.94 2013-08-19 28.94 0.00%
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares 106.483 26.19 2013-08-05 25.8 1.51%
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 107.266 27.02 2013-08-05 26.63 1.47%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 64.67 36.47 2013-08-19 35.78 1.93%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares 163.552 18.95 2013-07-29 19.1 -0.79%
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 502.343 28.76
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares 88.216 20.95
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares 47.575 19.73
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 86.825 24.26
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 7.716 32.22 2012-09-10 22.07 45.99%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 204.759 43.78
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares 131.82 13.8 2013-08-12 13.55 1.85%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 151.476 11.32 2012-12-31 9.66 17.18%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 81.285 48.61
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 60.433 51
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 720.513 14.43
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 180.466 65.17
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 78.171 23.71 2013-07-22 22.57 5.05%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 100 34.47
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares 217.786 29
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares 195.205 34.72
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 165.74 32.47
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 208.729 28.47 2013-07-22 26.48 7.52%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares 74.583 20.46
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares 248.593 12.61
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares 61.443 28.16
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares 125.229 59.7 2013-08-12 61.37 -2.72%
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares 101.262 55.62
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares 108.613 32.63 2013-08-05 31.64 3.13%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares 189.797 33.61 2012-12-10 28.91 16.26%
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 208.734 30.77 2012-09-04 23.75 29.56%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares 84.727 13.27
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 554.088 70.73
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 928.249 51.5
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares 178.856 19.04 2013-07-22 18.95 0.48%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 152.167 36.56 2013-07-15 34.35 6.43%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 195.514 167.54 2013-04-08 156.01 7.39%
 

2013-07-22 Commodities Comparison

Commodities

Commodity Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Gold GLD 200.895 134.9
Oil OIL 256.621 25.07 2013-07-08 23.86 5.07%
Silver SLV 108.206 23.15 2013-08-19 22.42 3.26%
   

2013-07-22 Diversified Assets

Diversified Assets

Mutual Fund Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Commodities Broad Basket DXCLX 119.508 53.35
Diversified Emerging Mkts GBFAX 292.287 12.72
Foreign Large Value FIVLX 205.029 8.35
Foreign Small/Mid Value QUSOX 495.944 10.77
Global Real Estate FIRAX 123.109 10.04
Large Blend PIXAX 585.489 6.57 2013-07-15 6.68 -1.65%
Large Growth IWIRX 105.532 26.21 2012-09-10 20.275 29.27%
VHCAX 160.944 99.16 2012-09-10 74.421 33.24%
Large Value CAMAX 198.61 13.71 2012-12-24 10.88 26.01%
SFLNX 195.382 12.91 2012-09-10 10.469 23.32%
Real Estate KSRAX 238.983 27.65
Small Blend FSCRX 171.075 29.15 2012-09-10 21.658 34.59%
   
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