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Daily Quant | 2013 | September
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2013 September

Weekly Research: Monday, September 30, 2013

Posted by | Weekly Research | No Comments
   

2013-07-22 Major Markets

Major Markets

Major Markets Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
MSCI EAFE Index EFA 64.26 513.021 2012-07-02 50.13 28.19%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM 41.23 195.501 2013-09-09 40.39 2.08%
S&P 500 Index SPY 168.9 148.779 2013-01-28 150.33 12.35%
S&P MidCap 400 Index MDY 226.2 219.335 2013-01-07 191.44 18.16%
S&P SmallCap 600 Index IJR 99.54 114.54 2012-12-24 77.98 27.65%
 

2013-07-22 The Globe

 

The Globe

Country Ticker Name ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares 25.62 112.214
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 21.85 18.351 2013-09-16 22.12 -1.22%
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 19.35 143.976 2013-08-12 18.27 5.91%
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 15.39 119.351 2012-07-02 11.53 33.48%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares 47.94 248.086 2013-09-16 47.54 0.84%
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 22.01 43.823
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares 28.43 105.134 2013-08-19 27.94 1.75%
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 22.82 1.575 2013-08-23 22.67 0.66%
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 51.27 127.659 2013-09-30 51.66 -0.76%
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 43.28 81.488 2013-09-09 42.75 1.24%
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares 47.74 129.547 2013-08-19 45.84 4.15%
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares 37.65 238.845 2013-08-19 36.36 3.55%
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares 46.6 142.23 2013-08-19 44.92 3.74%
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 40.46 658.746 2013-08-19 39.33 2.87%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares 32 263.916 2013-08-19 28.94 10.57%
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares 27.14 106.483 2013-08-05 25.8 5.19%
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 28.03 107.266 2013-08-05 26.63 5.26%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 37.4 64.67 2013-08-19 35.78 4.53%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares 20.23 168.63
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 30.09 502.343 2013-09-03 29.43 2.24%
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares 22.43 88.216
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares 21.1 47.575
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 24.4 86.825
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 33.29 7.716 2012-09-10 22.07 50.84%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 45.67 204.759 2013-09-30 45.8 -0.28%
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares 14.21 131.82 2013-08-12 13.55 4.87%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 12.02 151.476 2012-12-31 9.66 24.43%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 51.48 81.285
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 54.99 60.433
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 15.21 720.513 2013-09-30 15.63 -2.69%
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 64.66 180.466
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 23.94 78.171 2013-07-22 22.57 6.07%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 38.64 100 2013-09-30 38.28 0.94%
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares 29.61 217.786 2013-09-16 30.02 -1.37%
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares 32.85 195.205
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 33.86 165.74
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 28.93 208.729 2013-07-22 26.48 9.25%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares 21.91 74.583 2013-08-26 20.3 7.93%
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares 13.49 248.593
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares 30.56 61.443
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares 63.44 125.229 2013-08-12 61.37 3.37%
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares 62.19 101.262 2013-08-26 55.99 11.07%
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares 34.76 108.613 2013-08-05 31.64 9.86%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares 34.44 189.797 2012-12-10 28.91 19.13%
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 31.4 208.734 2012-09-04 23.75 32.21%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares 14.02 84.727 2013-09-03 13.84 1.30%
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 76.25 554.088
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 54.91 928.249
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares 19.72 178.856 2013-07-22 18.95 4.06%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 38.27 152.167 2013-07-15 34.35 11.41%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 169.85 195.514 2013-04-08 156.01 8.87%
 

2013-07-22 Commodities Comparison

Commodities

Commodity Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Gold GLD 128.97 200.895 2013-09-03 135.43 -4.77%
Oil OIL 24.33 256.621 2013-07-08 23.86 1.97%
Silver SLV 20.96 108.206 2013-08-19 22.42 -6.51%

2013-07-22 Diversified Assets

Diversified Assets

Mutual Fund Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Commodities Broad Basket DXCLX 53.22 119.508 2013-09-03 52.19 1.97%
Diversified Emerging Mkts GBFAX 13.45 292.287
Foreign Large Value FIVLX 8.73 205.029 2013-09-16 8.58 1.75%
Foreign Small/Mid Value QUSOX 11.08 495.944
Global Real Estate FIRAX 10.32 132.544
Large Blend PIXAX 6.64 578.933 2013-07-15 6.566 1.13%
Large Growth IWIRX 27.55 105.532 2012-09-10 20.275 35.88%
VHCAX 103.37 160.95 2012-09-10 74.285 39.15%
Large Value CAMAX 14.21 198.61 2012-12-24 10.88 30.61%
SFLNX 13.12 222.912
Real Estate KSRAX 28.19 238.981
Small Blend FSCRX 29.64 171.075 2012-09-10 21.658 36.86%
2013-09-30 Sector Exposure2013-09-30 Fund Exposure     One of the new developments that we have made within the VPM Labs are the Sector and Fund Investment Exposure Charts. These charts are designed to provide a high level view of the current Long positions and any new Buys and Sells in term of percentage of that category. The Opt. Weekly Sector Investment Exposure charts shows the percentage of all stocks within each sector that are Long in addition to the percentage of new Buys and Sells this week using the current mapped Optimized Weekly Trade Systems. The Opt. Weekly Fund Investment Exposure Chart details the current Mutual Fund investment exposure by Investment Group and Category. This is a look at all Funds in our system across all shares classes to provide a comprehensive view of the current investment exposure in each of the investment categories that are represented in your Mutual Fund portfolios.    

The Weekly Brief: Monday, September 30, 2013

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Market Overview

YTD Performance 2013-09-30 YTD S&P 500 Pacing 2013-09-30 SPPacing

A vortex of events are upon us again as volatility is set to increase!

As this week begins there are some major events coming into play. First is the European Crisis as Italy is teetering on collapse again. Then, Germany is struggling to form a coalition government. Expectations are that the German liberal party will cause tax increases.  And then there is the partial shutdown of the U.S. Government that is pending. Additionally, there is the U.S. economy to evaluate this week.  On Tuesday the ISM Manufacturing report will be released followed by the Fed’s Red book. Wednesday has the ADP employment report then Big Ben speaks at the community Bank conference in St. Louis. Thursday has factory orders. Then comes the big report on Friday with the Employment situation. During all of this in the background will also be the debt ceiling talks. There is literally so many things going on it could be a crazy week. Although, depending on how this situation with the partial government shutdown goes, market participants tend to focus on just 1 or 2 factors.  This week will be very interesting to say the least.

By the Box

YTD Performance
2013-09-30 StyleBoxes1
Performance Divergence
2013-09-30 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 09/23/2013

2013-09-30 PriorWeek

Looking back on last week’s action:

Monday The market began on a lower note as we spent the first several hours on the downside with the seller clearly in control. Most market participants were concerned about the lack of progress in the budget negotiations. The result was that 7 of the 10 sectors finished in the red while Tech and telecoms bucked the trend finishing up slightly on the session. In the end, the S&P500 finished lower by 0.47%. Tuesday The market continued under pressure as it was in the process of finishing lower for the fourth consecutive session. The first hour of trading was lower primarily in reaction to the below-consensus consumer confidence report for September. Despite the lower opening, the S&P attempted a recovery but was unable to remain above the 1700 level. This set the tone for an afternoon decline to finish lower by 0.26%. Wednesday The market opened slightly higher but slipped by the close extending the losing streak to 5 sessions.  The session for the most part was sloppy and but was lead into the red by energy and materials. The sloppy trade represented a consolidation as the previous 4 sessions lost nearly 3.5%. Market sentiment remained cautious as the political rhetoric continued to suggest that there would be no near term solution for the debt crisis. Thursday Finally a positive session as the market participants gained some confidence as the market was able to trade above the 1700 level. However, the market would not be able to hold onto the gains and finished just below the 1700 level as this was the second try to remain above this key psychological level. Friday The market came under pressure again as it widened the loss for the week to 1.1% as Friday ended 0.41% lower. The market was driven by the concerns over the budget debate as the markets were very choppy, trading near the lower range for the better part of the session. It was a flip of a coin whether to stay long or short for Monday’s opening.  We now know that the right bet was to come in short. Meanwhile, the Senate passed a funding bill that would keep the government running through November 15 but removed the provision to defund Obamacare. This sent the bill back to the House of Representatives where the defunding provision originated.

S&P 500 for 09/27/2013

2013-09-27.2 Friday’s action was a very choppy session finishing below the key pivot of 1692.80 with a close at the 1691.75. This has signaled weakness for Monday and Tuesday of this week.  The configuration suggests that the market will decline for at least for 1 to 2 more sessions. The critical level today is the 1686.95 level. A penetration will set the tone for a decline toward the 1684/1677 levels over the next 3 to 5 sessions. As I mentioned earlier, the volatility is likely to be high this week suggesting that we will see an expanded range this week. The bias will be to the downside at least into Wednesday. The intermediate charts have lost a lot of momentum over the past two weeks. This combined with the close below 1692.80 suggests that the market will have a downward bias. There is only a 30 percent probability for the market to rally above the 1707.70 level this week. A move above this level would be positive but for now is not very probable. The intermediate objectives of 1769/1804 are still valid as long as the market remains above the 1667.40 level. A penetration will negate these objective and signal a pattern failure and major top.  For now there is only a 30 percent probability for that to occur this weekend. The markets should open lower suggesting a lower close as long as the market remains below the 1696.60 level today.

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 1723.60
R3 1716.10
R2 1707.70
Resistance R1 1699.30
Prior Close   1691.75 -18.16
Support S1 1684.25
S2 1675.80
S3 1667.40
ES 1659.90

Today’s Key Levels

ER 1701.40
R3 1699.15
R2 1696.60
Resistance R1 1694.05
Prior Close   1691.75 -6.92
Support S1 1689.50
S2 1686.95
S3 1684.40
ES 1682.10

The Daily: Friday, September 27, 2013

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2013-09-26.2 Yesterday’s action finally broke the pattern and closed higher, confirming the completion of the 5 day down pattern.  As I mentioned in yesterday’s comments, the market should begin a 3 to 5 session rally moving the market back toward the 1711/1715 levels. This was confirmed with yesterday’s action. The overall expectation is for a sidewise trading range to unfold over the next 5 to 8 sessions followed by a resumption of the uptrend toward the end of next week. Today is a weekly close and a close above 1709.80 will be necessary to signal a bullish pattern for next week. There is only a 30 percent probability that this will occur.  A close below 1692.80 is necessary to signal a negative pattern. And a close between these levels will signal a sidewise trading range which is the expected pattern to unfold over the next 3 to 5 sessions. The markets should open flat to lower suggesting a higher close as long as the market remains aove the 1693.15 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1709.80
R3 1707.17
R2 1704.25
Resistance R1 1701.30
Prior Close   1698.67 + 5.90
Support S1 1696.05
S2 1693.15
S3 1690.20
SX 1687.60

The Daily: Thursday, September 26, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments
2013-09-25.2Yesterday’s action unfolded in a familiar pattern as the market began in a defensive stance, trading below the support at the 1692.80 level, then rallied into positive territory, only to fade to close lower on the session. While the rhetoric around the markets is about the Debt ceiling, the action is nowhere near the type of activity we had last year around this event.  Overall, most market participants don’t believe that they will shut down the government. Therefore, the market action over the next several weeks will be about economics not the debt ceiling. The configuration suggests that the market has most likely completed the bottom of the pattern and should now unfold in a 3 to 5 day pattern back toward the 1711/1715 levels.  The market closed right at the 1692.90 level with a close of 1691.77. While this is below the support, the pattern still is signaling a rebound.  Current activity overnight, should it hold into the open, suggests the S&P will open near the highs of yesterday as some optimism has shown up in Asia and Europe. The critical level today is the 1689.90 level. A penetration of this level will signal an extended decline toward 1683/1680. There is only a 30 percent probability for this level to be penetrated. The markets should open higher signal a higher close as long as the market remains above the 1689.90 level today. today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1705.05
R3 1702.20
R2 1698.90
Resistance R1 1695.65
Prior Close   1691.77 -4.55
Support S1 1689.90
S2 1686.60
S3 1683.40
SX 1680.45

The Daily: Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments
2013-09-24.2 Following a soft open, yesterday’s action attempted to rally early in the session and trade higher with a high of 1707.6 but just below the R2 resistance level at 1708.50. The market sold off in the last two hours to settle at 1697.42.  The configuration suggests that today should be the low of the sequence. There is a 60 percent probability to trade toward the 1692.80/1690.20 level, completing a 5-day downward sequence. Should the market trade below the 1694 level early in the session, there will be a 60 percent probability for an upward reversal. This suggests a rally back to close above the 1700 level as long as it remains above the 1692.80 level. However, should the market penetrate and close below the 1692.80 level, this will signal an intermediate high, suggesting a further decline toward the 1682/1678 levels. While there is only a 30 percent probability for this to occur, it would place the market into a large consolidation range for the next 3 to 6 weeks. A higher close today will signal a 3 to 5 day recovery rally back toward the 1711/1715 levels. The markets should open flat to lower with a higher close to be signaled if the market remains above the 1692.80 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1711.90
R3 1708.50
R2 1704.65
Resistance R1 1700.85
Prior Close   1697.42 -4.42
Support S1 1694.00
S2 1992.80
S3 1690.20
SX 1686.35

The Daily: Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments
2013-09-23.2   Yesterday’s action continued the decline, trading below the 1700 level to a low of 1697.10. The market rebounded but closed below the 1705.60 level at 1701.84.  The configuration suggests that the market should bottom today as long as it remains above 1695.15. From here, the market should rally back toward the 1708/1715 levels. As I mentioned in yesterday’s comments, the critical level is the 1692.80 level. A penetration of this level will indicate that an intermediate top has been reached at the 1729.86 level. There is currently only a 30 percent probability for the 1692.80 level to be penetrated. The pattern that is likely to unfold is a sidewise pattern between the 1695/1715 levels for the next 3 to 5 sessions followed by a resumption of the uptrend moving toward the 1769/1804 longer term targets. Should the 1692.80 level be penetrated then it will negate the 1769/1804 targets. The markets should open flat to lower. A higher close will be signaled if the market remains above the 1695.15 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1715.30
R3 1712.10
R2 1708.55
Resistance R1 1705.00
Prior Close   1701.84 -8.07
Support S1 1698.70
S2 1695.60
S3 1691.60
SX 1688.40

Weekly Research: Monday, September 23, 2013

Posted by | Weekly Research | No Comments
   

2013-07-22 Major Markets

Major Markets

Major Markets Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
MSCI EAFE Index EFA 64.26 513.021 2012-07-02 50.13 28.19%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM 42.07 195.501 2013-09-09 40.39 4.16%
S&P 500 Index SPY 170.72 148.779 2013-01-28 150.33 13.56%
S&P MidCap 400 Index MDY 226.28 219.335 2013-01-07 191.44 18.20%
S&P SmallCap 600 Index IJR 99.53 114.54 2012-12-24 77.98 27.64%
 

2013-07-22 The Globe

 

The Globe

Country Ticker Name ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares 25.6 112.214
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 22.08 18.351 2013-09-16 22.12 -0.18%
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 18.93 143.976 2013-08-12 18.27 3.61%
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 15.44 119.351 2012-07-02 11.53 33.91%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares 48.52 248.086 2013-09-16 47.54 2.06%
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 22.3 43.823
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares 28.38 105.134 2013-08-19 27.94 1.58%
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 22.94 1.575 2013-08-23 22.67 1.19%
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 52.41 127.659
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 43.16 81.488 2013-09-09 42.75 0.96%
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares 48.42 129.547 2013-08-19 45.84 5.63%
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares 38.43 238.845 2013-08-19 36.36 5.69%
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares 47.24 142.23 2013-08-19 44.92 5.17%
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 40.65 658.746 2013-08-19 39.33 3.36%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares 32.29 263.916 2013-08-19 28.94 11.58%
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares 27.14 106.483 2013-08-05 25.8 5.19%
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 27.99 107.266 2013-08-05 26.63 5.11%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 37.23 64.67 2013-08-19 35.78 4.05%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares 20.28 168.63
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 30.58 502.343 2013-09-03 29.43 3.91%
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares 23.07 88.216
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares 21.93 47.575
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 26.43 86.825
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 33.15 7.716 2012-09-10 22.07 50.20%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 45.48 204.759
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares 14.35 131.82 2013-08-12 13.55 5.90%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 11.9 151.476 2012-12-31 9.66 23.19%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 51.18 81.285
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 54.4 60.433
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 15.71 720.513
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 66.42 180.466
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 24.23 78.171 2013-07-22 22.57 7.36%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 38.45 100
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares 30.37 217.786 2013-09-16 30.02 1.17%
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares 34.08 195.205
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 34.28 165.74
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 28.7 208.729 2013-07-22 26.48 8.38%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares 22.3 74.583 2013-08-26 20.3 9.85%
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares 13.54 248.593
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares 30.43 61.443
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares 64.47 125.229 2013-08-12 61.37 5.05%
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares 62.68 101.262 2013-08-26 55.99 11.95%
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares 34.36 108.613 2013-08-05 31.64 8.60%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares 35.26 189.797 2012-12-10 28.91 21.97%
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 31.36 208.734 2012-09-04 23.75 32.04%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares 14.21 84.727 2013-09-03 13.84 2.67%
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 81.06 554.088
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 58.32 928.249
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares 19.8 178.856 2013-07-22 18.95 4.49%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 38.15 152.167 2013-07-15 34.35 11.06%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 172.47 195.514 2013-04-08 156.01 10.55%
 

2013-07-22 Commodities Comparison

Commodities

Commodity Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Gold GLD 127.96 200.895 2013-09-03 135.43 -5.52%
Oil OIL 24.87 256.621 2013-07-08 23.86 4.23%
Silver SLV 20.99 108.206 2013-08-19 22.42 -6.38%

2013-07-22 Diversified Assets

Diversified Assets

Mutual Fund Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Commodities Broad Basket DXCLX 54.46 119.508 2013-09-03 52.19 4.35%
Diversified Emerging Mkts GBFAX 13.52 292.287
Foreign Large Value FIVLX 8.72 205.029 2013-09-16 8.58 1.63%
Foreign Small/Mid Value QUSOX 11.07 495.944
Global Real Estate FIRAX 10.32 132.544
Large Blend PIXAX 6.68 585.489 2013-07-15 6.68 0.00%
Large Growth IWIRX 27.62 105.532 2012-09-10 20.275 36.23%
VHCAX 104.48 160.944 2012-09-10 74.421 40.39%
Large Value CAMAX 14.2 198.61 2012-12-24 10.88 30.52%
SFLNX 13.26 222.912
Real Estate KSRAX 28.57 238.983
Small Blend FSCRX 29.56 171.075 2012-09-10 21.658 36.49%
  2013-09-23 Sector Exposure2013-09-23 Fund Exposure   One of the new developments that we have made within the VPM Labs are the Sector and Fund Investment Exposure Charts. These charts are designed to provide a high level view of the current Long positions and any new Buys and Sells in term of percentage of that category. The Opt. Weekly Sector Investment Exposure charts shows the percentage of all stocks within each sector that are Long in addition to the percentage of new Buys and Sells this week using the current mapped Optimized Weekly Trade Systems. The Opt. Weekly Fund Investment Exposure Chart details the current Mutual Fund investment exposure by Investment Group and Category. This is a look at all Funds in our system across all shares classes to provide a comprehensive view of the current investment exposure in each of the investment categories that are represented in your Mutual Fund portfolios.    

The Weekly Brief: Monday, September 23, 2013

Posted by | The Weekly Brief | No Comments

Market Overview

YTD Performance 2013-09-23 YTD S&P 500 Pacing 2013-09-23 SPPacing

The Money Supply Remains Open

As we begin this week the German elections which what perceived to be of interest for market participants ends up to be just another yawn with a huge win for Angela Merkel wining a third term. The politics that unfolded last week that affected the market began with Larry Summers pulling his name for a possible Federal Reserve chairman. This was followed by a complete boondoggle by the Federal Reserve on the tapering of the debt purchases. Then on Friday, the comments by Bullard suggested that the taper could be back on in the October meeting. This leaves market participants wondering what is real. Just more of the process of floating ideas to see what works and what doesn’t. With over 34 years of watching the Fed, this one in my opinion has caused some real loss of credibility. This just brings in more uncertainly. With the next round of debt ceiling negotiations underway, there is no telling what is likely to come out of this the next several weeks. So it would appear that volatility will pick up in the next several weeks as more emotion will start to enter into the markets. While all of this is unfolding, the underlying market sentiment remains positive. The economics this week will have some influence as there are several significant reports that will likely affect market sentiment. Monday is pretty light but it all picks up as we get into Tuesday through Thursday as consumer confidence, durable goods, and the Richman Manufacturing Index. Then Thursday with GDP, Jobless claims, and pending home sales.  These reports should supply plenty for market participants to consider which will bring on more rhetoric around the possibilities of the tapering coming back on the table.

By the Box

YTD Performance
2013-09-23 StyleBoxes1
Performance Divergence
2013-09-23 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 09/09/2013

2013-09-23 PriorWeek

Looking back on last week’s action:

Monday The market began the session sharply higher after Larry Summers, who was thought to be the hawkish frontrunner, withdrew his name from consideration to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. This kept the market strong for most of the session. Yet, the S&P 500 faded into the close while stilling ending higher by 0.57%. Tuesday There wasn’t much to be said about the trading action in the stock market on Tuesday as the market was in a wait and see mode before the Fed announcement. Volatility and volume was very low as the markets treaded water. Wednesday Wednesday was the day we had been waiting for. For the past several weeks and even months, the market awaited the announcement from the FOMC on their decision to cut back the purchases on mortgages and treasuries. When the news release was made that the Fed had decided to hold up on the “tapering,” the market rallied sharply as this was one of the bigger surprises that we have had for years. Also, the policy statement did contain updated economic projections. Notably, the forecast for 2013 and 2014 GDP was lowered with the Committee expecting this year’s growth between 2.0% and 2.3% (2.3%-2.6% June forecast) and 2014 growth ranging between 2.9% and 3.1% (3.0%-3.5% June projection). This sent the treasuries sharply lower in yields to the 2.71% level from the 2.84% level a day earlier. By the end of the session, the S&P closed up 1.22% at a new historic high of 1,725.52. Thursday The session didn’t have many headlines to react to and the market traded like a deer in the headlights in disbelief of what happened from the FOMC meeting press release. The market was lower for most of the session and the S&P 500 finished down 0.18%. Friday Sellers remained in control throughout the day amid comments from Fed president Bullard and some divisive headlines from Washington. The House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution bill to fund the government through December 15. However, the inclusion of a provision to defund the Affordable Health Act set the tone for another big standoff with the Senate on the debt ceiling. The big news that drove sentiment was the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard as the stated that the “taper” vote would be back on and could curtail the bond purchases going forward beginning next month. This kept the market under pressure into the close as the market finished near the lows of the session. In the end, the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.72% on the session, but finished the week at historic highs with a solid gain for the week of 1.3%

S&P 500 for 09/13/2013

2013-09-13.2

Friday’s action was under pressure from the early trading as the market began to retrace the gains from the “No taper” surprise on Wednesday. In spite of the heaving selling, the market did finish at new historical highs on a weekly basis, but fell short of the technical benchmark of closing above the 1714.60 level as the S&P 500 finished at 1709.91. From a technical viewpoint, the market action was very sloppy and suggests there is likely to be some moderate declines to begin this week. However, the S&P 500 should not decline below the 1701.85 level and the most likely target for the downside is the 1705.60/1701.85 levels. A penetration of the 1701.85 level would suggest a decline toward the 1692.80 level which only has a 30 percent probability. The trends on the weekly chart or intermediate trends have accelerated after last week’s action even though Friday’s action was weak. The underlying trends continue to accelerate. After a brief hesitation, the market should continue higher. As I mentioned last week, the new objectives of the 1769/1804 levels are now in play. This suggests that the market is likely to continue toward these objectives as long as the market remains above the 1692.80 level. A penetration of this level will signal a possible major high but the probabilities are low for this to happen at this time. The Bullish percent remains at the 59.81 percent just below the key 62% level to signal a further rotation. With the longer trends in the markets remaining positive, there is a reasonable probability that this will be achieved. The long term weekly charts remain positive. It is going to take at least 2 to 4 months to reach a peak in this trend as the recent action has triggered an acceleration of the long term trends suggesting that the rally could carry into Q1 of 2014. This trend is far from over as the breakout into new prices has triggered a new rotation and cycle in the markets with only a small probability to turn lower at this time. It is still my expectation that when this sequence does complete that it will represent a multiyear top, but for now that is a ways off and from a higher level. The markets should open flat to higher indicating a higher close if the market remains above the 1705.60 level today.

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 1744.15
R3 1736.10
R2 1727.05
Resistance R1 1717.95
Prior Close   1709.91 +21.92
Support S1 1701.85
S2 1692.80
S3 1683.75
ES 1675.70

Today’s Key Levels

ER 1728.30
R3 1723.95
R2 1719.10
Resistance R1 1714.25
Prior Close   1709.91 -12.43
Support S1 1705.60
S2 1700.75
S3 1695.90
ES 1691.55

The Daily: Friday, September 20, 2013

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments
2013-09-19.2 Yesterday’s action was able to render a new high before drifting lower for the balance of the session, closing lower at the 1722.34 level.  The configuration suggests that the market will close lower today but maintain the positive momentum that was generated by the action on Wednesday.  The pattern suggests that if the market remains above the 1714.60 level today on a closing basis, then this will set the tone for a 3 to 5 day rally to unfold early next week. The action this week has triggered a massive acceleration in momentum suggesting that there should be at least two to three more weeks of positive action. This indicates a rally toward the 1769 /1774 levels during this period. This will be confirmed by a close above the 1714.60 level today. It will take a close below the 1705.60 level to signal a negative pattern for next week. There is only a 30 percent probability for that to occur. There is a 60 percent probability for the market to close into a positive configuration and move higher next week. The markets should open flat to higher, indicating a higher close, if the market remains above the 1714.60 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1737.85
R3 1734.20
R2 1730.10
Resistance R1 1726.00
Prior Close   1722.34 -3.18
Support S1 1718.20
S2 1714.60
S3 1710.50
SX 1706.85
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