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Daily Quant | 2014 | January
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2014 January

The Daily: Friday, January 31, 2014

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2014-01-30.2

As January goes, so does the year…

As we finish this week we’re also finishing the first month of the new year. The action so far has been quite negative. This has been one of the worst starts since 2008 giving the indication that 2014 doesn’t look positive at the least. The configuration on a weekly basis suggests that the market remains in a sidewise trading range. On a monthly viewpoint, it is critical that the market remains above 1768. There is a 60% probability of that to occur which suggests that the sidewise trading range is likely to continue into early February. However, in December we finished on the high of the month. This time we are finishing near the lower end of the range for the month. While this is a minor reversal, it does not signal a major top but there has been an intermediate top signaled at this time. With this being a weekly and monthly close, it is critical that the market closes above 1790.30 today. A close over 1808.40 would be an outright bullish signal. Yet, there’s only a 30% probability that that will be reached today. On the downside, the key number is 1778.50. A close below that level would indicate further downside moving toward the objectives that I’ve talked about of 1755 with an extreme of 1717. On a short-term basis we have seen the last three sessions gyrating from large selling to substantial buying. It looks like Friday will be no different as we are due to open sharply lower at this time after the release of the Amazon earnings. This has set market sentiment for the open or so it would appear at this time. The Facebook effect with good news only lasted one session. The news on the emerging market front is pretty quiet as we come into the close on Friday. But don’t be surprised to see further protection taken as we come into the close today. The volatility that we have seen in January appears that it will continue for at least another 3 to 4 days before we will see a contraction of the daily range indicator occur. The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1798.40 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1812.75
R3 1808.40
R2 1803.45
Resistance R1 1798.60
Prior Close   1794.19 +19.99
Support S1 1789.80
S2 1784.90
S3 1780.00
SX 1775.65

The Daily: Thursday, January 30, 2014

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2014-01-29.2

Market Participants Come to Their Senses, Fed Increases Taper…

As I mentioned in yesterday’s comments, I believed that the action by Turkey in an effort to support their currency was potentially negative for their economy. It turns out that market participants agreed with me. Last evening when I was doing the commentary the futures were up over 20 points only to fade to negative territory by the opening. This set the tone for even more weakness as there were disappointments in earnings as well as expectations for the Fed to continue to decrease the QE by another 10 billion per month. The real story that is getting more traction is not just a story on Turkey but it’s about a large segment of the emerging markets including Russia, India, Brazil, Argentina, and including issues of liquidity in China. This is reminiscent of the Asian crisis of 1997. However, this is even bigger with some of the larger players that are experiencing liquidity issues being revealed through their currencies. Many are blaming the Fed’s taper strategy on this and they don’t seem to be concerned about the emerging markets situation as we know that they moved to continue to decrease the QE. From a pure technical viewpoint, the markets closed under the 1778.50 level signaling a move toward the 1764/1755 levels. At the close Yesterday, I tweeted that the extreme level could be as low as 1717. Thursday’s action will be key as it is the sixth day of the decline with a key technical extreme signal about to fire. If the market holds the 1768 level and closes higher, then we could see a 2 to 3 day rebound back toward the 1793.50 level which is a key pivot point. The fact that we didn’t receive the signal when we closed below 1778.50 does not mean it goes directly lower as we are reaching an oversold condition. GDP will be out today and is expected to show over 3% growth. If there’s a disappointment here, this could put additional pressure on the markets. There are plenty of earnings reports coming out in the next two sessions as the forward-looking forecast are putting a lot of pressure on market sentiment keeping it in a negative position. The key level on the downside today is the 1768 level. A penetration of this level which was last month’s low will signal a further move toward the 1755 level with an extreme of 1717. On the upside today, a move above 1783.75 will be necessary to signal a reversal. There is only a 30% probability for that to occur today. The market should open higher with a 60 percent probability to close higher should the market remain above the 1768.00 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1793.25
R3 1788.70
R2 1783.75
Resistance R1 1778.70
Prior Close   1774.20-18.30
Support S1 1769.70
S2 1764.65
S3 1759.60
SX 1755.15

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

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2014-01-28.2

Turkey doubles rates, markets rally…

The action overnight by Turkey was an effort to support the Turkey lire by raising the overnight lending rate to 12% from 7.75% and the overnight borrowing rate to 8% from 3.5%. This immediately has triggered a rally in Asia and Europe. This boosted futures Wednesday morning ahead of the Fed meeting. While this action has triggered a positive response, it would seem that this type of action will crush their economy and ultimately not achieve stability in their currency. Market participants however have taken the risk on attitude and markets across the planet are rallying sharply. Ultimately, the action here in the US will come down to the release of the Federal Reserve minutes and conference call, which will be Ben Bernanke’s final meeting, combined with the continuation of the earning season. As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, the market was able to hold the 1778.50 level and rally. We should now begin a rally back toward the 1802/1808 levels. Within the past five sessions we have seen a sharp increase in the daily volatility range indicator. This suggests that we have probably 1 to 2 more days of expanded volatility and then we should start to see it contract. It is still my expectation that the market will remain in a sideways range. After breaking down from the 1849 level and trading down as low as 1772 two days ago, the action suggests that we have set an intermediate high which would indicate several weeks of consolidation before the market will be able to make any significant move in either direction. The key level today on the downside is 1786.70. Based on current overnight action the market is due to open flat after an initial overnight positive response. This suggests that we will move into this 1802 to the 1808 retracement level with an extreme of 1811.40. If the 1786.70 level is penetrated today, which has only a 30% probability, then a retest of the 1780/1778 level will be signaled. The market should open flat, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1786.70 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1817.20
R3 1811.40
R2 1804.85
Resistance R1 1798.35
Prior Close   1792.50 +10.94
Support S1 1786.70
S2 1780.15
S3 1773.65
SX 1767.80

The Daily: Tuesday, January 28, 2014

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2014-01-27.2

Ben Bernanke’s final meeting…

Interesting enough, while the final chapter in the storied tenure of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship is coming to an end and the baton is being handed off to Janet Yellen there is a potential crisis brewing. We have not seen a currency crisis for decades. You have to dig deep in the archives to find a dislocation in currency that triggered other financial events. Last evening in a surprise move, India’s central bank raised their rates by 1/4% to 8% from 7.75%. The rupee got a minimal bounce out of this move. It wasn’t even able to generate much of a news story on European TV last night. But as this situation unfolds we continue to see countries struggling to offset the actions of the Fed’s taper. The story is far from over and is likely to continue to evolve over the next several months. So, this sets the tone for the very first challenge of the new Janet Yellen Fed. As I have said in the commentary over the last several weeks, for one reason or another there always seems to be a new financial dislocation of capital that arises within the first year of a new Fed chairman tenure. Yesterday’s action saw the market selloff sharply, trading down to the 1772 level, below the key 1778.50 level that I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary. The market rebounded from this level and managed to trade positive on the session before fading to close lower. This action is pretty typical around the key number as we were able to close at 1781.56, just above the key pivot level that I discussed yesterday. The key number on the downside today is 1775.10. A penetration would suggest that a further decline to retest yesterday’s low at 1772 along with the possibility of trading down to the 1767 / 1754.25 levels over the next two sessions would be signaled. On the upside, if 1788.00 is penetrated expect the market to begin a rally that could last over the next 2 to 3 sessions, trading up toward the 1802/1808 levels representing a retracement rally. The most likely configuration to unfold will be a sideways pattern moving toward these levels. The market should higher with a 60 percent probability to close higher should the market remain above the 1775.10 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1808.89
R3 1802.44
R2 1795.23
Resistance R1 1788.01
Prior Close   1,781.56 -8.73
Support S1 1775.11
S2 1767.89
S3 1760.68
SX 1754.23

Weekly Research: Monday, January 27, 2014

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2014-01-21 Major-Markets-Comparison

Major Markets

Major Markets Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
MSCI EAFE Index EFA 513.021 64.84 2012-07-02 50.13 29.34%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM 195.501 38.24 2013-09-09 40.39 -5.32%
S&P 500 Index SPY 148.779 178.89 2013-01-28 150.33 19.00%
S&P MidCap 400 Index MDY 219.335 238.9 2013-01-07 191.44 24.79%
S&P SmallCap 600 Index IJR 114.54 106.3 2012-12-24 77.98 36.32%
 

2014-01-21 Globe-Comparison

 

The Globe

Country Ticker Name ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares 109.943 22.91
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 12.257 19.2
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 143.976 20.23 2013-08-12 18.27 10.73%
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 119.351 16.01 2012-07-02 11.53 38.86%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares 248.086 39.97 2013-09-16 47.54 -15.92%
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 43.823 18.32
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares 101.852 28.15
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 2.396 22.52
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 127.659 42.46 2013-09-23 51.66 -17.81%
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 81.488 45.65 2013-09-09 42.75 6.78%
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares 121.387 45.06
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares 190.927 34.22
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares 145.582 43.68
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 658.746 45.75 2013-08-19 39.33 16.32%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares 263.916 33.25 2013-08-19 28.94 14.89%
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares 106.483 27.18 2013-08-05 25.8 5.35%
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 107.266 30.52 2013-08-05 26.63 14.61%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 64.67 40.97 2013-08-19 35.78 14.51%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares 168.63 19.46
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 502.343 29.94 2013-09-03 29.43 1.73%
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares 88.216 23.63 2013-10-14 24.39 -3.12%
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares 47.575 22.35 2013-12-09 24.11 -7.30%
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 86.825 22.64
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 7.716 36.44 2012-09-10 22.07 65.11%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 204.759 47.73 2013-09-23 45.8 4.21%
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares 131.82 15.61 2013-08-12 13.55 15.20%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 151.476 11.68 2012-12-31 9.66 20.91%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 81.285 50.55 2013-11-04 50.88 -0.65%
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 50.315 53.88 2014-01-21 55.35 -2.66%
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 733.759 14.53
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 180.466 62.61 2013-11-18 66.8 -6.27%
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 78.171 25.12 2013-07-22 22.57 11.30%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 2575.56 38.21
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares 112.894 30.09 2014-01-21 31.15 -3.40%
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares 195.205 33.18
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 165.74 31.03
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 208.729 28.13 2013-07-22 26.48 6.23%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares 75.718 19.98
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares 248.593 12.25
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares 61.443 25.88
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares 118.317 58
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares 100.32 57.64
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares 108.613 38.03 2013-08-05 31.64 20.20%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares 191.037 34.86
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 248.271 32.49 2014-01-13 33.03 -1.64%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares 84.727 13.85 2013-09-03 13.84 0.07%
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 554.088 66
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 928.249 40.95
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares 178.856 20.36 2013-07-22 18.95 7.44%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 152.167 40.96 2013-07-15 34.35 19.24%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 195.514 179.9 2013-04-08 156.01 15.31%
 

2014-01-21 Commodities-Comparison

Commodities

Commodity Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Gold GLD 200.895 122.29 2013-09-03 135.43 -9.70%
Oil OIL 260.146 22.62
Silver SLV 108.206 19.16 2013-08-19 22.42 -14.54%

2014-01-21 Diversified Assets-Comparison

Diversified Assets

Mutual Fund Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Commodities Broad Basket DXCLX 113.569 57.38
Diversified Emerging Mkts GBFAX 292.15 13.77 2013-10-21 14.057 -2.04%
Foreign Large Value FIVLX 204.88 8.73 2013-09-16 8.372 4.28%
Foreign Small/Mid Value QUSOX 495.079 12.43 2013-10-14 11.227 10.72%
Global Real Estate FIRAX 101.471 9.9
Large Blend PIXAX 584.845 6.41 2013-07-15 5.955 7.64%
Large Growth IWIRX 105.522 30.08 2012-09-10 20.194 48.96%
VHCAX 160.952 107.44 2012-09-10 71.644 49.96%
Large Value CAMAX 198.61 16.17 2012-12-24 10.88 48.62%
SFLNX 223.33 13.67 2013-11-11 13.62 0.37%
Real Estate KSRAX 238.956 27.91
Small Blend FSCRX 171.059 30.39 2012-09-10 21.095 44.06%
  2014-01-27 Sector Exposure 2014-01-27 Fund Exposure One of the new developments that we have made within the VPM Labs are the Sector and Fund Investment Exposure Charts. These charts are designed to provide a high level view of the current Long positions and any new Buys and Sells in term of percentage of that category. The Opt. Weekly Sector Investment Exposure charts shows the percentage of all stocks within each sector that are Long in addition to the percentage of new Buys and Sells this week using the current mapped Optimized Weekly Trade Systems. The Opt. Weekly Fund Investment Exposure Chart details the current Mutual Fund investment exposure by Investment Group and Category. This is a look at all Funds in our system across all shares classes to provide a comprehensive view of the current investment exposure in each of the investment categories that are represented in your Mutual Fund portfolios.  

The Weekly Brief: Monday, January 27, 2014

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Market Overview

YTD Performance 2014-01-27 YTD S&P 500 Pacing 2014-01-27 SPPacing

Global illiquidity? China and key emerging markets running out of cash?

Just when it starts to feel okay, could it be another sovereign crisis spreading across emerging markets including China? Rumors overnight suggest that China may be running out of cash. Citibank has halted transfers between several Chinese banks supposedly due to the Chinese New Year. The scuttlebutt started early last week and continued to grow until we saw a massive selloff here in the United States. While it appears to be mostly rumors, there are some situations that are unfolding that are causing market sentiment and fear to flow back into the markets. Most of this is evident in the emerging market currencies. Turkey, South Africa, Brazil and others saw their currencies trading toward 2008 lows. What does this mean for our markets? Can the contagion spread further into the United States should these events become reality? The VPM models’ saw mass liquidation this weekend. Most of the markets have been affected by the rumors and yet have very little exposure in South America and in certain regions in Asia. This situation will need to be monitored very closely as it could be further evidence that there are risks that could affect all world markets. While none of the situation is currently a reality, there are signs that many of the emerging markets are being affected from a market sentiment and a devaluation of their currencies. This is one of the unintended consequences which was discussed prior to the tapering of the QE program. The IMF had issued warnings against it and now we are seeing market sentiment and fear start to flow into the emerging markets causing an overflow into the primary markets in Europe and the United States. While it doesn’t appear at the moment to be capable of triggering a full-blown panic, it does appear that it is affecting overall the ability for the continuation higher. Several key levels were violated suggesting markets are going into a larger corrective phase. For the most part the VPM models saw selling primarily in all asset classes of value but concentrated in large-cap value from an individual equity viewpoint. The underlying trends in larger indices such as SPY, MDY, etc. continue to suggest that the longer-term trends are in place and that with the intermediate markets showing a top.  This suggests that we are likely to go into a sideways trading band that will be larger than the one that we saw for the first several weeks of the year. As we come into the final week of January the old saying that “As January goes, so does the year” is at the forefront. This could be a further influence on market sentiment as we get closer to the end of the week.

By the Box

YTD Performance
2014-01-27 StyleBoxes1
Performance Divergence
2014-01-27 StyleBoxes2
 

SP 500 for the week of 01/20/2014

2014-01-27 PriorWeek2014-01-27 PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week

Monday, Markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Tuesday The market started on a solid ground as early strength pushed the market into the highs of the day but quickly evaporated. The S&P attempted to rally above 1850 again during the opening minutes but failed to penetrate it causing sellers to drive the markets down toward their lows of the session. The earnings season continued to disappoint overall. This added insult to injury as there was very little to entice buyers back into the markets. Wednesday Wednesday’s market action began similar to Tuesday’s with a higher opening that the average were unable to hold as the markets finished once again in a mixed fashion with the NASDAQ finishing up .04%, S&P up 0.1%. The Dow Jones remained under pressure for most of the session as 19 of the 30 components were underwater. Thursday The moderate two-day winning streak was snapped as the action unfolded with the sellers taking control with the S&P 500 closing down 0.9%. Most of the influence here was due to the flash PMI out of China which showed a 49.6, below the 50 reading which is indicative of a manufacturing slowing. This spooked investors, keeping the market under pressure for most of the session. To make matters worse an SEC administrative law judge issued a ruling that censures the accounting arms of the big four in China for six months due to their unwillingness to turn over requested documents. This helped the markets to finish near the lows of the session and damaging sentiment even further. Friday Friday started off weak and just continued to sell off as the session unfolded. This set up the end of a brutal week seeing a 2.1% decline for the S&P and extending this January declined to 3.14%. There was hardly an uptick for the entire session as a steady slide over the concerns about China and other issues in the emerging markets continued to keep the sellers in control. By the end of the session there was no positives to be found and we witnessed heavy institutional selling right into the close. After the close the futures markets continued to decline as the featured sellers into the close were Goldman, Salomon Brothers and Chicago Corp. These players represent large institutional interests that were most likely hedging portfolios ahead of today’s open.

S&P 500 for 01/24/14

2014-01-10.2 Friday’s action broke through all known support as we continued to trade through the 1798 level trading down to 1790.29 and closed at the low tick of the session. The configuration suggests that the market is likely to continue down toward the 1781.35/1778.50 levels. While the discussion above would suggest there is a substantial amount of risk in the markets, the patterns suggests that we’re likely to see a low in the next two sessions setting up a rally back toward the 1802 to 1808 levels. However, should the 1778 level be penetrated, we could continue toward 1755 before finding a bottom of this pattern. I mentioned in a post on our Twitter account that there has been an intermediate high signaled with the close on Friday. While this is the case it does not suggest that a major decline has begun. It suggests that there has been an intermediate top which indicates that there could be a 6 to 8 week consolidation before a final determination of this current sequence will be able to be made. It appears that the 1849 level has satisfied the initial sequence. The configuration that will unfold over the next several weeks will trade between the 1778 to the 1808 levels with an extreme on the downside of 1755 on the range and the upside could extend toward the 1822/1828 levels. With the daily volatility range indicator expanding to current levels it suggests that there will be a stabilization and a consolidation before any lower prices will be rendered. As usual, I’ll continue to use the Twitter account on any intraday situation that needs to be updated after the release of the commentary in the mornings. As I have discussed over the past several weeks, the bullish percent continues to remain reasonably high at 62%. This suggests that the market still has a substantial amount of stocks and indices that are illustrating uptrends. What we are seeing from the database though is the evolution of the ending of this trend that we have been in for the past 14 months. This will continue to evolve and there will be at least another 6 to 8 weeks before a determination that the larger trend is failing. The long-term objective of 1905 is still valid. However, a penetration of 1778 will negate that target suggesting that there is a larger pattern unfolding that has negative implications as we move forward. The market should open flat to higher with a 60 percent probability to close lower should the market remain below the 1795.40 level today.

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 1828.25
R3 1819.35
R2 1809.25
Resistance R1 1799.25
Prior Close   1790.29 -48.41
Support S1 1781.35
S2 1771.30
S3 1761.35
ES 1752.25

Today’s Key Levels

ER 1811.95
R3 1806.80
R2 1801.10
Resistance R1 1795.40
Prior Close   1790.29 -38.17
Support S1 1785.20
S2 1779.50
S3 1773.75
ES 1768.65

The Globe at a Glance: Friday, January 24, 2014

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The Globe

No countries switched from negative YTD to positive. 10 ETFs changed from positive to now negative YTD. These countries include Canada, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Norway, Peru, Spain, United Kingdom. Last week, Turkey had the largest loss with a loss of -7.60%. Philippines saw the largest gain across the globe with a gain of 0.68%. The average change last week was -3.17%.

The Global Markets

GlobalMarkets_2014-01-24  
Country Ticker Name YTD Last Quarter Last Week
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares -5.99% -3.56% -3.37%
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares -6.11% -5.63% -4.10%
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 2.17% 2.54% -2.55%
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -2.26% 6.43% -1.36%
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares -10.54% -6.74% -5.31%
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares -7.57% -10.64% -4.93%
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares -3.46% 3.00% -2.02%
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares -0.75% -0.57% -1.87%
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -10.63% -5.30% -6.78%
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares -1.68% 7.20% -2.85%
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares -8.00% 4.66% -3.39%
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares -10.79% 3.45% -4.39%
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares -9.42% 4.71% -4.55%
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 1.67% 11.25% -0.54%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares -4.81% 10.61% -3.51%
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares -4.46% 5.84% -3.00%
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares -3.90% 14.20% -2.77%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 0.49% 9.54% -2.43%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares -5.53% 2.85% -5.58%
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares -6.44% 5.72% -5.76%
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares -4.56% 11.08% -3.55%
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares -4.93% 11.85% -3.20%
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -0.88% -3.18% -3.21%
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 1.65% 8.08% -1.11%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -1.43% 4.53% -3.79%
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares 0.13% 10.41% -2.50%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares -3.71% 1.76% -3.07%
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares -4.03% 3.07% -2.94%
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares -0.72% -1.68% -2.41%
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares -8.15% 5.19% -3.33%
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -7.93% 6.43% -3.93%
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -3.12% 8.95% -2.29%
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 2.33% -2.91% -2.03%
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares -2.65% 6.04% -3.03%
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares -1.40% 3.19% -2.53%
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares -1.80% -3.92% 0.68%
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -5.22% 3.63% -1.64%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares -8.77% 1.30% -3.62%
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares -6.99% -1.35% -3.54%
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares -5.06% -10.27% -1.71%
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares -10.05% 1.98% -5.12%
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares -10.87% 5.15% -4.55%
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares -1.40% 10.99% -5.00%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares -2.71% 4.61% -2.65%
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares -1.52% 5.47% -1.34%
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares -3.95% 3.59% -1.77%
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares -3.86% -7.93% -1.51%
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The Daily: Friday, January 24, 2014

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2014-01-23.2

China data triggers selling…

Yesterday’s action saw a very sharp drop in reaction to weakness in economic data from China. The markets fell sharply, trading through the 1829.60 support level that I discussed yesterday. While it appeared that the markets would continue in a very quiet range for the week, it took some outside stimulus to break us out of the volatility contraction that I discussed in yesterday’s commentary. It was obvious that we were close to some sort of breakout. Yesterday took us below the 1829.60 level with a close at 1828.46, down 16.40 on the session. The sharp decline came close to the low that was rendered on January 13 at 1815.52. The configuration suggests that there is a 60% probability that this level will hold and suggests that the market will continue in the sideways range that we have been locked in for most of this year. Today is a weekly close suggesting that a close below 1829.70 will indicate lower prices trading down toward more extreme support levels between 1802 in 1798 early next week. The 1802 level continues to be a major pivot area for the S&P 500. A penetration would suggest a decline toward the 1778 level. Currently, there is only a 30% probability for that to occur. It would take a close above the 1838.70 level today to signal a positive tone. There is only a 40% probability of that to occur. Should the 1820.95 level be penetrated today, it will signal a move to test the lows of 1815.50. If that is also penetrated, then we will head toward the 1813.40 level today. The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1832.00 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1843.50
R3 1839.90
R2 1835.45
Resistance R1 1832.00
Prior Close   1828.46-16.40
Support S1 1824.90
S2 1820.95
S3 1816.90
SX 1813.40

The Daily: Thursday, January 23, 2014

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2014-01-22.2

Yesterday’s action saw a slightly higher opening with the market trading in a very narrow range for the entire session. Yesterday’s narrow range of trading failed to penetrate the previous day’s high which negates the outside reversal bar from Tuesday. The configuration suggests that this week is likely to be one of the lowest volatility weeks we’ve seen in the past several weeks. As I have mentioned over the last week, the key pivot number on the upside is 1849.50. The lack of momentum and volatility has kept the market below this level failing to signal higher prices. The sidewise trading band between 1829/1849 looks like it will remain intact for at least two more sessions. While the market is consolidating we are continuing to lose short-term momentum suggesting that we are approaching a reversal point in the market. Should the market close below 1829 it would suggest a further decline toward the 1821/1817 levels. There currently is only a 30% probability for this to occur. The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1847.50 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1856.10
R3 1853.45
R2 1850.50
Resistance R1 1847.50
Prior Close   1844.86+1.06
Support S1 1842.20
S2 1839.25
S3 1836.30
SX 1833.60
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