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Daily Quant | 2014 | February
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2014 February

The Daily: Friday, February 28, 2014

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2014-02-27.2

Yellen Says the Magic Word: Weather

Yesterday, Janet Yellen said that weather slowed the economy down. In reality the markets were set to rally and it took very little stimulus from the testimony from Janet Yellen. There was just enough positive sentiment to get the market to close over 1850.50 with the close of 1854.29. Watching Janet Yellen in the testimony yesterday was sort of like watching your grandmother talk about the economy. It was really weird. She uses odd words and references which is going to take us a while to get used to for sure. As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, a close above 1850.50 would signal a retest of the highs at 1858.71 and potentially signal a move to the 1869 level. It is critical that the market remains above 1850.50 at the close. Should this occur, it will suggest that the market will move higher toward this 1869 level. I will discuss the alternative pattern that is unfolding should this occur. The configuration suggests that the market is likely to move higher today as long as it remains above the 1847.95 level. A penetration of 1847.95 will signal a retest of the critical level that has held for the last two sessions at 1841.60. Today is a monthly close with February being a complete reversal of January’s trend. As I mentioned earlier, should the market close over 1850.50 then this would suggest at least another month up. We will see the 1869 level and possibly the 1905 level reached during this period. The critical level on the downside is 1841.60. If this level is penetrated, then it will suggest a decline toward the 1832/1825 levels over the next 3 to 5 sessions. The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1847.95 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1867.05
R3 1864.00
R2 1860.65
Resistance R1 1857.30
Prior Close   1854.29 +9.13
Support S1 1851.30
S2 1847.95
S3 1844.60
SX 1841.60

The Daily: Thursday, February 27, 2014

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2014-02-26.2

All Eyes on Yellen!

As Thursday’s session begins market participants will be focused on the testimony by Janet Yellen. Many folks are anticipating her comments about the recent weakness in the economy. There’s even talk about her continuing to suggest that the weakness has been due to the harsh weather that’s been in the United States this winter. Any statement that takes the weakness due to weather off the table will be negative. While this may be a focus, there’s little to be expected from her comments other than more of the same. With the market hovering in a sideways pattern for the last three sessions, we continue to see market participants completely focused on the next action by the Fed. The unfortunate part of the crisis of 2008 is that there is a new paradigm that has emerged. It appears that the markets are continuing to wait for the normalization of the economy, which I discussed in my annual Outlook, so that we can start to respond to actual movements in the economy versus the expectations of what the Federal Reserve may do. It’s just likely that this new paradigm will continue to dominate market action until it’s proven to be invalid. Anybody over the last four years that has ignored the actions of the Fed or misunderstood that the quantitative easing that drove asset prices higher has missed out completely on one of the larger rallies that has ever unfolded. There are some elements beginning to appear out of the emerging markets that could trigger some of the potential currency issues to come back in play. Some folks in Europe believe that this could be triggered by comments by Janet Yellen today, depending on her stance or if she even mentions the emerging market currency situation. So, in the end there is a lot that can come out of her comments today. This worry has set some caution in the fragile five. The market action yesterday traded within the previous day’s range. The market traded to up to exactly the R2 value at 1852.65. From here, the market traded down toward the S1 support and continued to trade sideways, settling flat on the session. One of things I’ve discussed over the last several days is the contraction of the daily range. When it gets to around 10 handles, this tends to be the point where the market will make a substantial move. We are currently around 14 and have contracted from a high of 23. This has been a very good indicator over the past several months of when a breakout or directional change is likely to occur. To get to the 10 handle range it will take at least three more sessions of a contracted range. The 1850.50 level was the old historical highs. Since we penetrated that level three days ago, we have yet to have a close above it. If we can get a close above this level then it will signal a move to test the highs rendered the other day at 1858.71 and the possibilities of continue to go toward the 1869 level. Today’s action is likely to be a critical point in the pattern. The key penetration point on the upside is the 1852.95 level which will signal a move to test the 1858.71 level. On the downside, penetration of the 1837.40 level will indicate a move down to the 1829.60/1825.80 levels. There continues to be a slight bias to the upside but it will be critical if the market trades higher that we close above 1850.50 today or this will signal a lower sequence for 3 to 5 sessions. The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1841.50 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1860.70
R3 1857.05
R2 1852.95
Resistance R1 1848.85
Prior Close   1845.16 +0.04
Support S1 1841.50
S2 1837.40
S3 1833.30
SX 1829.60

The Daily: Wednesday, February 26, 2014

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2014-02-25.2

Market continues to hover near historic highs…

Yesterday morning’s opening weakness was quickly erased as the continuing underlying bid in the market showed up. The market rallied to just above the 1851.60 resistance level with a high of 1852.91. The market reversed from there to trend lower for the balance of the session and close at 1845.12, down 2.49 on the session. Since rendering a new historic high two sessions ago, the market continues to consolidate just below the 1850.50 level. While there continues to be a reasonable underlying bid, the configuration suggests that if we cannot close above 1850.50 by Thursday, then the market is likely to begin a decline back toward the 1830s/1824 levels over the next several sessions. Market participants are neutral coming into today’s session. Most are waiting for the testimony on Thursday by Janet Yellen. Whether Yellen will continue the dovish discussions and keep a bid in the market has yet to be seen. She is going to have to walk a thin line between the tapering strategy and a continuation of support in the economy. Many market participants are under the opinion that the weakness that has shown up in the economy is due to the cold weather that has hit the United States. But this does not explain the weakness that we are also seeing in Europe, China, and other emerging markets at this time. The jury is still out on whether or not the US economy is rolling over or not. As I have mentioned several times in the past, it does appear that the market is completing the final leg of this rally and is likely to spend the next several months declining back toward the mid-1600s. Currently, the futures are indicating that the market is going to open sharply higher. If this holds into the open, I think it is going to be difficult to find more buyers to push the market through the highs that we made the other day at 1858.71. It appears to me today’s higher opening is likely to draw in some more selling. As I mentioned earlier, the probability of folks buying aggressively before the testimony on Thursday by Janet Yellen is unlikely. The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1856.60 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1860.20
R3 1856.60
R2 1852.65
Resistance R1 1848.70
Prior Close   1845.12 -2.49
Support S1 1841.60
S2 1837.60
S3 1833.60
SX 1830.05

The Daily: Tuesday, February 25, 2014

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2014-02-24.2

Was that a breakout?

Yesterday’s action was able to penetrate the 1850.50 level, trading as high as 1858.71. However, the market was unable to hold above the historic highs, closing just below them at 1847.50. The configuration suggests that a lower close today will indicate that a high of the B Wave occurred yesterday, suggesting a decline toward the 1830/1823 levels over the next 3 to 5 sessions. The key level to the upside is the 1851.60 level. A penetration will signal a move toward 1856.60/1860.50. In spite of the penetration of the 1850.50 level yesterday, the pattern suggests that yesterday’s action was not a breakout and resumption of the uptrend but part of a larger corrective pattern. This suggests a lower close today signaling the beginning of the C wave down. This would indicate a minimum of 5 to 8 sessions of lower prices. However, a close above the 1856.05 level will trigger a rally toward the 1869 level. There is only a 40% probability for that to occur today. The market should open flat to lower with a 60 percent probability to close lower should the market remain below the 1851.60 1864.50 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1864.50
R3 1860.50
R2 1856.05
Resistance R1 1851.60
Prior Close   1847.61 +11.36
Support S1 1843.60
S2 1839.20
S3 1834.70
SX 1830.70

Weekly Research: Monday, February 24, 2014

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2014-01-21 Major-Markets-Comparison

Major Markets

Major Markets Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
MSCI EAFE Index EFA 611.053 66.97
MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM 189.198 39.43
S&P 500 Index SPY 148.779 183.89 2013-01-28 150.33 22.32%
S&P MidCap 400 Index MDY 238.278 246.98
S&P SmallCap 600 Index IJR 142.94 107.66
 

2014-01-21 Globe-Comparison

 

The Globe

Country Ticker Name ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Australia EWA Australia Index MSCI Ishares 109.943 25.01
EWAS Australia Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 12.257 20.98
Austria EWO Austria Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 142.852 20.82
Belgium EWK Belgium Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 141.963 16.69
Brazil EWZ Brazil Index MSCI Ishares 209.056 40.76
EWZS Brazil Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 43.823 17.87
Canada EWC Canada Index MSCI Ishares 101.852 28.99
EWCS Canada Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 2.396 23.4
Chile ECH Chile Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 89.734 43.24
China ECNS China Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 81.488 47.14 2013-09-09 42.75 10.27%
FCHI FTSE China [Hk Listed] Index Ishares 121.387 46.16
FXI FTSE China 25 Index Fund Ishares 190.927 35.74
MCHI China Index MSCI Ishares 145.582 45.36
Denmark EDEN Denmark Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishare 658.746 49.45 2013-08-19 39.33 25.73%
Finland EFNL Finland Cp Investable Mkt Indx Fund MSCI Ishares 310.186 35.04
France EWQ France Index MSCI Ishares 105.747 28.79
Germany EWG Germany Index MSCI Ishares 107.266 31.58 2013-08-05 26.63 18.59%
EWGS Germany Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 64.67 42.94 2013-08-19 35.78 20.01%
Hong Kong EWH Hong Kong Index MSCI Ishares 168.63 19.86
EWHS Hong Kong Smallcap MSCI Ishares 468.178 30.72
India INDA India Index Fund MSCI Ishares 88.216 24 2013-10-14 24.39 -1.60%
INDY S&P India Nifty 50 Index Ishares 36.621 22.74
Indonesia EIDO Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 86.825 25.92
Ireland EIRL Ireland Cppd Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 7.716 39.09 2012-09-10 22.07 77.12%
Israel EIS Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 204.759 49.35 2013-09-23 45.8 7.75%
Italy EWI Italy Index MSCI Ishares 131.82 16.59 2013-08-12 13.55 22.44%
Japan EWJ Japan Index MSCI Ishares 164.055 11.51
ITF S&P/Topix 150 Index Ishares 79.624 49.77
SCJ Japan Smallcap Index MSCI Ishares 44.603 52.56
Malaysia EWM Malaysia Index MSCI Ishares 733.759 15.3
Mexico EWW Mexico Investable Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 173.52 61.81
Netherlands EWN Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 78.74 25.58
New Zealand ENZL New Zealand Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 2575.56 39.02
Norway ENOR Norway Capped Investable Mkt Idx Fd MSCI Ishares 46.587 30.92
Peru EPU All Peru Capped Index MSCI Ishares 195.205 33.81
Philippines EPHE Philippines Invstb Mkt Idx MSCI Ishares 165.74 33.45
Poland EPOL Poland Investable Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 208.729 30.58 2013-07-22 26.48 15.48%
Russia ERUS Russia Capped Index MSCI Ishares 75.718 19.71
Singapore EWS Singapore Index MSCI Ishares 248.593 12.71
EWSS Singapore Smallcap Fund MSCI Ishares 61.443 26.52
South Africa EZA South Africa Index MSCI Ishares 118.317 60.98
South Korea EWY South Korea Index MSCI Ishares 100.32 59.88
Spain EWP Spain Index MSCI Ishares 108.613 39.32 2013-08-05 31.64 24.27%
Sweden EWD Sweden Index MSCI Ishares 203.496 35.56
Switzerland EWL Switzerland Index MSCI Ishares 240.013 33.61
Taiwan EWT Taiwan Index MSCI Ishares 90.705 13.99
Thailand THD Thailand Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 554.088 67.91
Turkey TUR Turkey Invest Mkt Index MSCI Ishares 928.249 44.18
United Kingdom EWU United Kingdom Index MSCI Ishares 175.007 21.23 2014-02-24 21.1 0.62%
EWUS United Kingdom Smallcap Index Fund MSCI Ishares 152.167 43.84 2013-07-15 34.35 27.63%
United States IVV S&P 500 Index Ishares 213.828 185.08
 

2014-01-21 Commodities-Comparison

Commodities

Commodity Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Gold GLD 200.895 127.58 2013-09-03 135.43 -5.80%
Oil OIL 260.146 24.09
Silver SLV 108.206 20.97 2013-08-19 22.42 -6.47%

2014-01-21 Diversified Assets-Comparison

Diversified Assets

Mutual Fund Ticker ER Ratio Last Close Entry Date Entry Price GainsLoss
Commodities Broad Basket DXCLX 113.569 61.99 2014-02-24 62.43 -0.71%
Diversified Emerging Mkts GBFAX 292.15 13.91 2013-10-21 14.057 -1.05%
Foreign Large Value FIVLX 183.767 9.03
Foreign Small/Mid Value QUSOX 495.079 12.64 2013-10-14 11.227 12.59%
Global Real Estate FIRAX 101.471 10.18
Large Blend PIXAX 541.322 6.6
Large Growth IWIRX 105.522 31.21 2012-09-10 20.194 54.55%
VHCAX 160.952 113.39 2012-09-10 71.644 58.27%
Large Value CAMAX 198.61 16.71 2012-12-24 10.88 53.59%
SFLNX 223.33 14.03 2013-11-11 13.62 3.01%
Real Estate KSRAX 238.956 29.34
Small Blend FSCRX 204.232 30.42
  2014-02-24 Sector Exposure 2014-02-24 Fund Exposure One of the new developments that we have made within the VPM Labs are the Sector and Fund Investment Exposure Charts. These charts are designed to provide a high level view of the current Long positions and any new Buys and Sells in term of percentage of that category. The Opt. Weekly Sector Investment Exposure charts shows the percentage of all stocks within each sector that are Long in addition to the percentage of new Buys and Sells this week using the current mapped Optimized Weekly Trade Systems. The Opt. Weekly Fund Investment Exposure Chart details the current Mutual Fund investment exposure by Investment Group and Category. This is a look at all Funds in our system across all shares classes to provide a comprehensive view of the current investment exposure in each of the investment categories that are represented in your Mutual Fund portfolios.  

The Weekly Brief: Monday, February 24, 2014

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Market Overview

YTD Performance 2014-02-24 YTD S&P 500 Pacing 2014-02-24 SPPacing

Is G-20 relevant?

As we begin this week, markets will be initially focused on the G-20 statement that was released yesterday. They stated that an accommodative policy will continue while the Federal Reserve tapering looms in the background. There was an effort in the statement to attempt to keep the emerging markets in focus enough to hopefully head off further currency issues. Meanwhile, they continued to state that the world economies are softening and they will keep an accommodative policy to offset any significant risks. It appears that most of the statement is posturing which is not likely to have much of a significant effect. The reality is that the Federal Reserve will be leading this pack no matter what way they decide to go in the future.  It is clear that the G-20 has become more of a country club than a governing body of any sort. For now, the Fed will continue to taper their asset purchases in spite of the weakness in the economy. As I mentioned in the podcast last week, I continue to see a lack of news that can drive the market sentiment to be bullish enough to push the market into new highs at this time. This is why we tested the old highs last week but could not find any new buyers above the 1840 level to push the market through the extreme resistance at the 1850.50 level. It appears there continues to be risk in South Africa, Brazil, and India. While their currencies have stabilized, there remains a great risk of further downside for the next several quarters. The clear economic drivers in the recovery since 2008 have been China, India and Brazil. Should these economies continue to weaken, this may cause the Fed to cut the taper off.  But this will cause more risk and regardless of the Fed’s actions, it will not change the outcome in these countries. In economic news, this coming week is pretty light. On Thursday durable goods orders will be released and Janet Yellen will be speaking as well. On Friday the biggest report of the week will be the GDP release which is expected to show a 2.5% increase versus the previous release of 3.2%. A further sign of a weakening economy will cause a deterioration of sentiment and push the stock market lower.

By the Box

YTD Performance
2014-02-24 StyleBoxes1
Performance Divergence
2014-02-24 StyleBoxes2
 

SP 500 for the week of 02/18/2014

2014-02-24 PriorWeek2014-02-24 PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week

Monday All markets were closed for Presidents’ Day. Tuesday Markets began on a quieter note with the laggard small-cap stocks rebounding 1% on the session while the S&P 500 added only 0.1%. There was some early weakness but it was quickly reversed as the healthcare sector helped to lead the way off the lows. The biotechnology group also led the way as they jumped approximately 2.6% on the session. Wednesday Markets were able to start on a stronger note, but quickly faded as the S&P 500 closed down 0.65%. The NASDAQ recovered some of the early losses from the open but struggled to trade positive. After the release of the notes from the Fed meeting, market sentiment turned negative for the balance of the session as tech and financial stocks led the way down. Thursday The market opened on a weaker note but began a sustained rally to erase most of Wednesday’s losses with the S&P closing up 0.6%. The Russell 2000 continued to lead the way higher as it rose 1.1% by the close. In spite of the weaker manufacturing data out of China, Japan, and the Eurozone, the US markets were able to reverse and close higher. One of the factors that helped to rally the market was the US manufacturing PMI which showed a 56.7 versus an expected 53.0. While this report was not believed to be a significant report, it does appear that it triggered most of the short covering that occurred. Friday In the end, the major indices finished on a lower note. While the close was just slightly lower, they were unable to maintain the higher levels that were reached on Thursday. In many ways Friday’s session was very similar to Wednesday’s as it was unable to sustain the higher levels that were reached early in the session and slipped to close lower on the session. While technology was leading the market higher early in the session, it was not enough to keep the selling that came in ahead of the weekend from pushing the market into negative territory by the close with the S&P 500 closing down 0.13% for the week.

S&P 500 for 02/14/14

2014-01-10.2 Friday’s lower close suggests that we could see some early weakness and trade down toward the key level at 1823.70. A penetration of this level (a 60% probability) by Tuesday would signal a move toward the 1814/1802 levels. As I have discussed over the past several sessions, I continue to believe that the rally over the past two weeks has represented an upward B wave. This suggests that we will begin to decline at least back to the 1737 levels with the possibility of going as low as the 1697/1645 levels. The intermediate charts do suggest there is support at the 1823.70 level. Should the market close below this level, then there will be a confirmation of the above scenario. Over the past three weeks the market has been consolidating. We have seen a slight increase in the bullish percent from 48% to 51.06%. The critical level for bullish percent is 42% a break below that level would suggest a sustained decline. However, as long as we stay above that level and below 62%, the market is likely to remain in a wide choppy pattern. On the upside, the critical level is 1844.45. A penetration would set the tone for a retest of the historic high at 1847.50/1850.50. A penetration would suggest a continuation toward the 1869 level. Currently, there is only a 30% probability for this to occur. If the 1844.45 level is not penetrated by Tuesday, then expect the market to trade near the lower end of the range for the week toward 1814/1802. The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1844.45 level today.

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 1880.53
R3 1870.10
R2 1858.40
Resistance R1 1846.70
Prior Close   1836.25 -2.38
Support S1 1825.80
S2 1814.10
S3 1802.40
ES 1791.95

Today’s Key Levels

ER 1852.70
R3 1848.80
R2 1844.45
Resistance R1 1840.15
Prior Close   1836.25 -3.53
Support S1 1832.40
S2 1828.05
S3 1823.70
ES 1819.85

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The Daily: Friday, February 21, 2014

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2014-02-20.2

Market Rallies Negating Reversal Top…

As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, it was critical that the market closed lower to move us out of this sideways trading range. The sharp reversal that occurred yesterday with the market closing at the 1839.78 level has negated the outside reversal top that I discussed yesterday. The configuration suggests that if we can close above the 1847.55 level today, then the market will signal a move toward the 1869 objective. With today being a weekly close, it is critical that the market maintains at least a close over 1838.60 to remain positive but a bullish close will be above the 1847.55 level. On the downside, it would take a close under 1824.25. There is only a 30% probability for this to occur. When a key reversal is negated, usually we will see at least 2 to 3 days of higher prices. In this case, the market should move toward the 1869 level if we can close higher and confirm the pattern. As I mentioned in yesterday’s podcast, it continues to be very difficult to nail down market sentiment and what’s driving the markets. It appears with some of the weaker economic news that is coming out from China, Europe and the US that it’s possible that were back into the bad news is good news as market participants are expecting the Fed to bail out the market once again. The configuration suggest that it is critical that the market closes over the 1850.50 level in the next two sessions or another reversal is likely to occur to the downside The market should open higher with a 60 percent probability to close higher should the market remain above the 1832.00 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1855.30
R3 1851.65
R2 1847.55
Resistance R1 1843.45
Prior Close   1839.78 +11.03
Support S1 1836.15
S2 1832.00
S3 1827.90
SX 1824.25

The Daily: Thursday, February 20, 2014

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2014-02-19.2

Volatility contracts as market experiences key downward reversal!

Yesterday’s action early in the session continued to defy gravity as the market traded up to the 1847.50 level. However, the market went from +7 handles to -12 by the close. This reversal has happened at a key level as we were just three points away from the historical high. For the past several days, I have been discussing that the market should reverse. A lower close today will confirm the reversal, suggesting that at least another 3 to 5 sessions to the downside are ahead. The lower close today will also confirm a pattern failure and we should now start a decline back toward the 1814/1802 levels over the next 5 to 8 sessions. The confirmation of a move toward the 1802/1797 levels will be a close below the 1817.45 level in the next two sessions. As I discussed yesterday, I believe we’re in a large sideways pattern. There has been no indication on this last nine session rally that there was any sort of resumption of an uptrend during this period. As I discussed in the annual Outlook and over the past couple weeks, this rally that is unfolding is an upward B wave correction. This suggests that the market should decline below the lows that we saw at the 1737 level and continue down toward the 1697/1645 levels over the next 6 to 8 weeks. The key level on the upside today is 1836.15. A penetration of this level would suggest a rally back toward the 1843.55 level. Yet, there was only a 30% probability for this to occur. On the downside, a penetration of 1821.35 will signal a move toward the 1814/1802 levels. However, should the market manage to close higher today, it will negate the outside reversal bar suggesting further sideways action before this decline will resume. There is only a 40% probability for the market to close higher today. The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1836.15 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1843.55
R3 1840.05
R2 1836.15
Resistance R1 1832.25
Prior Close   1828.75 -12.01
Support S1 1825.25
S2 1821.35
S3 1817.45
SX 1813.95
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