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Daily Quant | 2014 | May
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2014 May

The Daily: Friday, May 30, 2014

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2014-05-29.2

Market extends advance… Is bad news good news?

Yesterday’s continuation of the rally was in spite of a negative GDP revision for 1st quarter of -1% that had been previously reported as a 0.1% advance. Market participants shrugged this off due to the decrease in jobless claims and the theory that the weather caused the weakness in the economy.

As I have discussed in past reports, not always does positive news equal higher prices. At the moment there was such a build up over last winter’s weather causing the weakness in the economy that any uptick in the current environment has to be perceived that this was indeed the case.

As I discussed in yesterday’s commentary, I continue to see the market moving to the short-term target range between 1920.95/1930.95. The market did trade and close at 1920.03. The higher close yesterday suggests that the market is likely to extend for at least 2 to 3 more sessions before a top will be in place. It does appear that the minor sequence will be completed in the expected range between the 1920/1930 levels.

After going through nearly 13 weeks of the sideways trading range it is now obvious that market participants are more than willing to continue to buy this market as it moves higher. While relative volume continues to be low, this is more of a positive sign than a negative one. Once we see a climactic session with high-volume and prices surging this will be likely the high of the sequence.

The three day average volatility range continues to stay below 10 at 9.23. This would indicate that there is a strong possibility of volatility expanding over the next two sessions.

With today being a weekly close, it will be necessary for the market to remain above 1912.95 to remain bullish as we move into next week.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1915.40 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1929.25
  R3 1927.05
  R2 1924.65
Resistance R1 1922.20
Prior Close   1920.05 +10.25
Support S1 1917.85
  S2 1915.40
  S3 1912.95
  SX 1910.80

The Daily: Thursday, May 29, 2014

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2014-05-28.2

Market completes minor pattern…

Yesterday’s action was able to continue higher as the market printed to the 1914.46 level. Shortly after printing these new highs, the market reversed to close lower on the session. As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, it is likely that we would see at least 2 to 3 days of lower prices, but they would be compressed as we would not likely see any extreme selloff at this point.

The objective of 1920/1930 is still valid. The market is likely to continue toward that level sometime Friday or early next week. The critical level on the downside is 1901.30. A penetration of this level would suggest a further decline to 1897.50. Yet. There is only a 30% probability of this level being reached at this time. Should the market hold this level today and close higher, then the market will resume the uptrend moving into the target range of 1920/1930.

There is very little news that is coming out to affect the markets today. We will see jobless claims and pending home sales. Don’t expect much from either of these reports

The market should open flat to higher with a 60 percent probability to close higher should the market remain above the 1901.30 level today.

 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1918.25
  R3 1916.25
  R2 1914.00
Resistance R1 1911.80
Prior Close   1909.78-2.13
Support S1 1907.80
  S2 1905.55
  S3 1903.30
  SX 1901.30

The Daily: Wednesday, May 28, 2014

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 2014-05-27.2

Four days in the same direction and counting…

The market continued to follow through to the upside as we closed at the 1911.91 level yesterday making a statement on the breakout. As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, it is important for the markets to continue to follow through once a key number is broken. If you recall we spent several weeks gyrating around the 1882.60 level. Finally, four sessions ago it broke above this level and it hasn’t looked back since.

The configuration suggests that the market has a 60% probability that a minor top will form today as long as the market remains below 1916.75. Should this occur and the market closes lower on the session, it will suggest a minor correction for two days trading back toward the 1902.20/1897.50 levels. If the market is unable to trade below 1902.20 for the next two sessions it is likely that we will see a continuation to the upside toward the target range of 1920/1930.

This target range is a minor objective. The intermediate objectives now are 1973 with an extreme of 2032/2073. While this is not likely to occur overnight, it’s very likely that we will reach at least the 1973 level over the next 6 to 8 weeks.

It would take a close back below 1882.60 to signal a pattern failure. There is only a 30% probability for that to occur. There is now a 60% probability that the 1920/1930 level will be reached and a 40% probability for the 1973 level to be reached.

The critical level today is 1907.05. If this level is penetrated we could trade down toward the 1902.20 level. Also, the three day average range dropped below 10 today as it is 9.74. This suggests there’s a possibility for the volatility to increase over the next two sessions. The underlying trends confirm that the likelihood is that the market will surge to the upside, raising the probabilities of the 1973 level to be reached.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1907.05 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1921.65
  R3 1919.35
  R2 1916.75
Resistance R1 1914.20
Prior Close   1911.91 +11.38
Support S1 1909.60
  S2 1907.05
  S3 1904.50
  SX 1902.20

 

The Weekly Brief: Tuesday, May 27, 2014

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Market Overview

YTD Performance 2014-02-24 YTD S&P 500 Pacing 2014-02-24 SPPacing

Market finally breaks out…

After spending 13 weeks in a sideways pattern the market was finally able to close above the 1900 level last week with a close at 1900.53. This is a significant event based upon the psychological aspects of the market breaching the 1900 level. This suggests that the market is likely to continue higher for the next 4 to 6 weeks. The VPM database did see some additional buying come in this week as there was a net 1400 new purchases generated. This has pushed our bullish percent back to 50.54% but the actual sectors and groups remain in a neutral position as many of the indices have not resumed their uptrends. Please see our dashboard for a breakdown of all these purchases.

As the week begins we look to economic news with durable goods being released prior to the opening and then the Case Schiller Index to be released later in the session. While this is a holiday shortened week we still have plenty of information coming out on Thursday with GDP as well as jobless claims to be released. From a news standpoint, Friday should be uneventful as the only real news to be released is consumer sentiment. Overall, we should see a continuation of the positive movement to the upside as this week unfolds.

By the Box

YTD Performance

2014-02-24 StyleBoxes1

Performance Divergence

2014-02-24 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 05/19/2014

2014-02-24 PriorWeek2014-02-24 PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week

Monday

The market began on a modestly higher note as the S&P was able to add 0.38% on the session. Meanwhile, the underlying theme that would unfold for the entire week was the rebound in the Russell 2000 as it advanced 1.1% on Monday. The Russell has a lot of catching up as it has been much weaker than the other indices. There was no real economic data of any sort on Monday so market participants focused on the acquisition of DirecTV by AT&T. This seemed to keep market sentiment positive

Tuesday

The market began on a weaker note and continued under pressure into midsession. There was a slight recovery in the last hour however the S&P 500 still finished down 0.65%. Most of the disappointment in the markets came from the retailers as many of them reported disappointing earnings. This pressured the discretionary sector down 0.9%. There was very little news to move the markets either way.

Wednesday

The Market opened higher, allowing the indices to move higher throughout the session with the Dow Jones finishing up 1% and the S&P 500 finishing up 0.8% as they reclaimed Tuesday’s losses. The Russell lagged a little bit but was up 0.5% after spending part of the morning in negative territory. The FOMC meeting minutes were released and market participants had very little reaction to that. Yet, it did keep a positive tone into the close.

Thursday

After Wednesday’s positive action the market was able to continue higher early in the session on Thursday. While most of the action was muted there was a positive underlying tone throughout the session. Overall it was a quiet session with very little to report. The S&P 500 finished up 0.24%

Friday

The tone was set for Friday as we saw a stronger opening. The market rallied early in the session, pushing above the 1900 level for the second time in the last two weeks. The market hovered around 1900 for most of the session but managed to push just above it at the close to finish at 1900.53. This action was able to set the tone for the entire week as the S&P 500 finished the week up 1.2%. As I mentioned earlier, the Russell and the NASDAQ outpaced the action in the S&P 500 as they rose 2.1 and 2.3% respectively on the week. The Russell 2000 remains negative on the year while other indices were flat to slightly higher with the S&P leading the way up 2.8%. The volume was quite low but in my viewpoint this is positive as are no excesses in the markets at this time as we penetrated through these critical levels.

 

S&P 500 for 05/23/14

2014-05-23.2

As the end of the week unfolded the S&P 500 was able to rally substantially in the last three sessions of the week. This pushed the S&P 500 into positive range for the year up 2.8%. As I discussed last week, the large cap index is leading the way for the first time in the last several years.

Two years ago I had expected that there would be leadership within the S&P 500 and the large cap stocks would lead the market to its final high and we are seeing that at this time. Overall, the patterns that continue to unfold suggests that the markets will go higher but they also suggest that this is the final sequence of this trend. While this is the final sequence, it does not mean that necessarily that the prices will end in a sharp reversal.

Daily charts continues to suggest that a minimum rally to the 1920/1930 levels is likely with the most probable target of 1926.55. This would be the expectations for the short-term patterns but the intermediate charts suggest that the targets on the upside could be more substantial. The VPM database continues to show an overall positive tone as it has moved back to the 50.54% bullish range. This suggests that there is likely to be more of a continuation of this pattern.

The intermediate target for the upside is a minimum of 1973 with the extremes now at 2034/2072 levels. As I discussed over the last couple weeks, this would suggest another 5 to 8% on the upside. While this is not substantial percentage move, the prices that we are likely to see from here will feel much bigger than they are.

This has been one of the more dynamic patterns that I’ve seen over the last several years as we go through the stair stepping of patterns that continues to perpetuate higher prices. But as I have discussed many times in the past, I still believe that sometime this quarter is the likely point for an extreme high to be formed. For now it looks like the pattern will continue and only a close below the 182.60 level will signal a pattern failure. There is currently only a 30% probability for that to occur.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1885.30 level today.

This Week’s Key Levels

  ER 1934.60
  R3 1926.55
  R2 1917.60
Resistance R1 1908.60
Prior Close   1900.53
Support S1 1892.50
  S2 1883.50
  S3 1874.50
  ES 1866.45

Today’s Key Levels

  ER 1912.00
  R3 1909.30
  R2 1906.25
Resistance R1 1903.25
Prior Close   1900.53
Support S1 1897.85
  S2 1894.80
  S3 1891.80
  ES 1889.10

The Daily: Friday, May 23, 2014

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2014-05-22.2

Finally…

Yesterday’s action continued to move higher as the market was able to close over 1890 with a close of 1892.49. The configuration suggests that we should continue to go toward the historical highs of 1902.17 and penetrate this as a minimum objective now is 1904.60. A penetration of this level will suggest a move toward the 1920/1930 levels over the next 5 to 8 sessions. However, it will be critical that the market remains above the 1900 level once it penetrates the old highs at 1902.17. While psychologically it feels like the market won’t go through this time, it does appear that it has a 70% probability to move up toward this 1920/1930 levels.

A failure at this juncture and a decline to close back below the 1882.60 level would be devastating in the pattern and suggest much lower prices. However, there is only a 30% probability for that to occur. While the market appears that it will move higher, there still is some vulnerability to a market failure even after a high is reached between the 1920/1930 levels.

On the downside today, the critical level is 1885.30. A penetration of this level will suggest a failure and a market decline back toward the 1882.60/1878.10 levels.

With today being a weekly close it will be critical that on a weekly basis we remain above 1882.60 today.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1885.30 level today.

 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1906.90
  R3 1903.50
  R2 1899.70
Resistance R1 1895.90
Prior Close   1892.49 +4.46
Support S1 1889.10
  S2 1885.30
  S3 1881.50
  SX 1878.10

The Daily: Thursday, May 22, 2014

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2014-05-21.2

One more time…

Yesterday’s action saw yet another reversal of the previous day’s weakness as the market has been moving back and forth. However, yesterday the market was able to close well above the 1882.60 pivot number and above the previous three days highs at 1888.03.

The configuration suggests that the market should continue higher for the next 3 to 5 sessions trading toward a minimum objective of 1904. The intermediate objective now is 1920/1930 which could be reached in the next 8 to 12 sessions. As we’ve seen in the past, the market has not been able to remain over the 1900 level. Still, we are now back in striking range within the next two sessions to penetrate the old highs at 1902.17 and move toward the objectives I just mentioned.

I discussed many times on Market Thunder that the overall configuration both on the intermediate and long-term charts continue to be positive suggesting that the market has an underlying bullish tone. Having said this, this suggests that the markets are likely to move into a higher level as long as they remain over 1870.40 this week. A penetration of this lower level would suggest a pattern failure. At this time there is only a 30% probability that will occur.

The key level on the downside today is 1884.45.  This level should hold. If it is penetrated then a minor decline toward 1880.40 would be signaled. There is only a 30% probability for that to occur.

As I have mentioned several times before, each time the market gets at the upper end of this range it sets the tone for a breakout to the upside. An element that I have discussed many times on Market Thunder is the PPMs. PPM1 has now moved up to a value of .25 on the intermediate charts which suggests there is a trend in place.

This fact in itself should be enough to hold the market and propel it moderately toward new highs. The danger is that the pattern that is unfolding suggests that the new highs could be short lived. As this pattern unfolds I will be updating this both in commentary and our Market Thunder broadcast on a regular basis.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1880.40 level today.

 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1903.30
  R3 1899.70
  R2 1895.65
Resistance R1 1891.65
Prior Close   1888.03 +15.20
Support S1 1884.45
  S2 1880.4
  S3 1876.35
  SX 1872.75

The Daily: Wednesday, May 21, 2014

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2014-05-20.2 

Here we go again… and again…

 

As I discussed in yesterday’s commentary, the market tends to get up at the top end of the range, closes over 1882.60 for yet another time, only to see the market fail and decline back into the range. This pattern has continued over the past several weeks and is frustrating to say the least. However, every time this happens there becomes an even higher level of failure as it now appears that the market is attempting to set up a larger topping pattern. With the intraday high of 1902.17, this has satisfied the long term objectives that I talked about of 1905.60. This projection came from way back in 2011 and now it has become reality. Now, the market is struggling substantially.

As I have discussed over the past several weeks, there seems to be very little news or events that can change sentiment at this time. The danger is that market participants become very complacent and find themselves caught in a downdraft when everything is declining. I’ve talked about the potential contagion on the tech market as well as the Russell 2000 leading the market down. This continues to be an issue.

The great debate is whether treasuries are seeing the markets right. There is indeed becoming more economic risk suggesting that a more significant decline will unfold over the next several months. As you’re very aware, I have been projecting that there will be a top sometime in Q2. This continues to be a substantial risk.

The critical level on the downside today is 1869.40. A penetration will suggest a decline toward the 1861.70/1858.25 levels. If the 1858.25 level were to be broken, then the new downward objectives would be for a decline to 1846/1841 with an extreme range to the downside of 1830/1821.

As it has been the case for the past 14 weeks now, the trading range of 1841/1882 continues to be the dominant pricing range for the market action.

Please tune into Market Thunder show at noon Eastern Time for full details and further review.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1893.90 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1887.40
  R3 1884.00
  R2 1880.15
Resistance R1 1876.25
Prior Close   1872.83 -12.25
Support S1 1869.40
  S2 1865.55
  S3 1861.70
  SX 1858.25

 

The Daily: Tuesday, May 20, 2014

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2014-05-19.2
Here we go again…

After a brief two day decline down to 1862.36 the markets have rebounded to close back above the critical pivot number of 1882.60. The configuration suggests that if the market can trade through the 1889.25 level today then a retest of the 1902.17 level will be in the cards.

With no new information or news of significance coming out tomorrow it will be up to market sentiment to drive the markets higher. At the moment there doesn’t appear to be the momentum or the sentiment to cause this retest of the historical highs. As I mentioned in yesterday’s Market Thunder we are just two sessions from rallying to all-time new highs. With valid objectives of 1916/1925 the probabilities point to a retest or at least a move to new highs before the ultimate high will be in place.

As I also discussed in yesterday’s commentary, the intermediate targets are still valid with a minimum target of 1973 and an extreme target of 2034/2072. There are several issues that could arise once new highs are reached. Momentum is low enough that we could see a rather abrupt failure if the market cannot get above the 1902.17 level over the next 2 to 3 sessions. However, should it penetrate this level, the resistance between the 1916/1925 levels are substantial enough for a reversal to occur from this level as well.

Overall, the pattern continues to have an underlying bias to the upside.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1880.90 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1902.70
  R3 1898.55
  R2 1893.90
Resistance R1 1889.25
Prior Close   1885.08 +7.22
Support S1 1880.90
  S2 1876.30
  S3 1871.60
  SX 1867.50

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