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Daily Quant | 2014 | July
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2014 July

Thursday, July 31, 2014

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2014-07-30.2

Yellen speaks… Blah blah blah…

Very little came out of the FOMC meeting minutes. As expected, the taper should end in October ending the QE program. Interest rates are to remain low, so forth and so on. Markets have shown a slight increase in volatility as the three day VPM rangefinder is at 15.23, up from 7.83 just five sessions ago.

Today’s action will encompass the release of the Chicago PMI and the jobless claims, which is not likely to generate much excitement. Now the big news that everyone is waiting for is the employment numbers which are expected to be unchanged on Friday with 233,000 new jobs.

While volatility has increased slightly, the trend has not changed. We continue to be locked in the trading range between 1962.45/1985.60. As I have discussed several times in the past, it is going to take a close over 1985.60 to signal higher prices. On the downside, it would take a close below 1949.90 to signal lower prices. Meanwhile, the expectation is to remain in this sideways pattern.

There is some relative probability that we could see the market move higher into the close of the week. But today is the final session of the month of July and it will be important that we remain over 1964.10. A close below that will suggest a neutral pattern for August. A close above this will suggest a continuation of the long-term uptrend.

As with the weekly charts, the close today above 1985.60 would be very positive suggesting we would move toward some of the higher objectives that I’ve been discussing over the past several weeks.

Tune into Friday mornings Market Thunder for full coverage of those patterns.

The critical level on the downside today is 1962.45. A penetration that level would suggest a decline toward the 1958.40/1954.90 levels. There is only a 30% probability that this level will be penetrated today.

Expectations are for a continuation of the sideways pattern with a bias’s to the upside with a 40% probability that the close on Friday will be above 1985.60.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1962.45 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1985.30
  R3 1981.70
  R2 1977.70
Resistance R1 1973.65
Prior Close   1970.07 +0.12
Support S1 1966.50
  S2 1962.45
  S3 1958.40
  SX 1954.90

 

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

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 2014-07-29.2

Market Trades Higher Then Reverses…

Yesterday’s action traded right into the R1 resistance at 1985.05 with an intraday high of 1984.85. The market reversed from this level and traded lower into the close, finishing down at 1969.95 and 8.96 lower on the session. The configuration suggests that the market continues to be in this sideways pattern.  You will recall about two weeks ago that the expected range was 1952/1985.

There were only two sessions since that analysis was made were we penetrated 1985. The market traded up to 1991.39 then closed substantially off the highs that week. This reversal was the beginning of the last three sessions of the negative pattern that has been unfolding. This suggests that there could be at least two more sessions if the 1964.10 level is penetrated. Should this occur, it will indicate that the market would decline toward 1960.75/1956.60 which should be the extreme for the week.

While my expectations were for the support to hold early in the week and see us move into the upper ranges of the resistance, the opposite is occurring this week. With the FOMC meeting minutes being released and the Janet Yellen press conference, anything is possible for today as we could see yet another reversal to the upside.

Overall, I do not expect the market to penetrate the 1956.60 level over the next two sessions. However, Thursday is a monthly close and it will be critical that we remain above 1964.10 on Thursday’s close. I will discuss in detail the pattern that is unfolding on Friday morning’s Market Thunder broadcast.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1964.10 level today. 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1983.10
  R3 1980.00
  R2 1976.50
Resistance R1 1973.05
Prior Close   1969.95 -8.96
Support S1 1966.85
  S2 1963.40
  S3 1959.95
  SX 1956.85

 

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

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2014-07-28.2

Market sells off early but…

Yesterday’s action started off on a negative note due to the disappointing Pending Home Sales report. The consensus was for a gain of 0.3% instead of the surprise drop by 1%. This put some immediate pressure on the markets when they opened. But as the session unfolded, the market continue to rebound, moving into positive territory by the end of the session.

The configuration suggests that the market is likely to continue higher today due to the rebound off of the key support on the weekly support two level. This suggests that the low of the week has been most likely reached. This being the case, we should see a continued rally as the market moves into Thursday, ending the month of July on a positive note.

The key level on the downside today is 1973.90. Should the market say above this level and close higher, then we should see the market retest the highs at 1986.60 and move toward higher objectives in the pattern toward the end of the week.

Should the market penetrate 1973.90, only a 30% probability, it will signal a decline toward the 1968.90/1964.10 levels. While it’s highly unlikely, a penetration of 1964.10 would suggest a further decline toward 1956.60.

Expectations continue to be positive for the market as the intermediate chart’s trends continue to dominate overall market sentiment.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1973.90 level today. 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1988.95
  R3 1986.60
  R2 1983.90
Resistance R1 1981.30
Prior Close   1978.91 +0.57
Support S1 1976.55
  S2 1973.90
  S3 1971.25
  SX 1968.90

 

The Weekly Brief: Monday, July 28, 2014

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Market Overview
2014-07-28_YTD

YTD Performance S&P 500 Pacing 2014-02-24 SPPacing

Another month goes by as the summertime blues continue…

As we enter into the final week of July the markets have some major news to digest as both the FOMC meeting and unemployment will be occurring in the same week.

Monday kicks it off with Pending Home Sales which is not likely to have much of an impact ahead of the FOMC meeting which begins on Tuesday and the release of the Case Schiller index and Consumer Confidence. On Wednesday the ADP Employment Report and GDP will be released which is likely to have a substantial impact ahead of the FOMC meeting announcement and the conference call with Janet Yellen.

While these meetings happen roughly every six weeks and not much changes on the big scheme of things, market participants will be focused on every word that comes out of the FOMC this week. While generally there is little expectation of change from last statements from Janet Yellen’s testimony just a few weeks back, it will create a lot of focus and thoughts by market participants.

Thursday will also be action-packed as Chicago PMI jobless claims and the employment cost index will have plenty to set the tone ahead of the Employment Situation to be released on Friday. The expectation for unemployment is to stay unchanged at 6.1% and new jobs to be 233K.

So, to say the least we have an action-packed week ahead of us. This is in spite of the summertime blues of low volume and relatively high markets. Expect plenty of volatility to increase as the week unfolds.

By the Box

YTD Performance

2014-02-24 StyleBoxes1

Performance Divergence

2014-02-24 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 07/21/2014

2014-02-24 PriorWeek2014-02-24 PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week

Monday

The market started off on a down session but it could have been worse. The markets declined fairly quickly at the start of trading but then stabilized to recover most of the losses by the end of the session. Continued geopolitical concerns drove the sentiment early in the markets due to the assault in Gaza and continuing rhetoric around the MH17 Malaysia flight that was shot down. Market participants realized fairly quickly that the US would be taking no further actions as Putin continues to have a dominant role on the international scene. The S&P finished down by 0.23%.

Tuesday

The market finished on an upbeat note as the market was able to render a new historical high, closing up 0.5% on the session. Geopolitical concerns quickly have moved to the back pages of the journal as market sentiment improved substantially with eight of the 10 sectors finishing in the green on Tuesday. The big news was of all about burritos as Chipotle soared 11.8%, beating estimates and setting the tone for the markets. There was little else to drive the markets other than earnings as they unfolded throughout the week.

Wednesday

Wednesday’s action traded in a lackluster mode but was able to finish higher by 0.2% on the S&P 500 with five of the 10 sectors settling positive. As I mentioned in last week’s commentary, it would be all about the earnings reports as there was little to no economic news to be released. Most of the markets traded in a flat line for the bulk of the session. This continued to push the S&P 500 into record territory.

Thursday

Thursday’s action was also very flat as it maintained a very narrow range as volatility contracted again. The three day VPM range indicator contracted to 7.86. This did suggest that volatility was likely to increase over the next 2 to 3 sessions but for Thursday it didn’t matter as the markets remained flat with the S&P finishing up by .05%. While the S&P was able to finish slightly higher, the Russell 2000 underperformed again even though there was early strength in reaction to the China’s Manufacturing PMI. This surged to an 18 month high overnight. While this helped sentiment, it was unable to drive the markets in either direction.

Friday

The market ended the week with a loss across most of the averages with the S&P down 0.48% on the session to finish the week unchanged. The Dow Jones was down 0.7% or 123.23 points with the Russell 2000 down 0.9% as both indices underperformed and posted respective losses of 0.8% and 0.6% for the week.

Earnings was driving the market action as several heavyweights disappointed the market with earnings misses or negative guidance which triggered some broader market selling. Shortly after the open the markets stabilized but were unable to stage any real recovery by the end of the session. Eight of the 10 sectors finished in the red with Discretionary leading the way down -1.2%. The NASDAQ composite was up 0.5% as this was pressured by Amazon declining 9.7% by the end of the session. This helped to keep overall sentiment negative.

S&P 500 for 07/25/14

2014-07-25.2

Friday’s action was driven primarily by the miss on Amazon earnings as selling pressure persisted throughout the session, pushing the market down .48% on the session. The configuration suggests that the market is likely to remain in the trading range that we been stuck in for several weeks again this week. Over the last two weeks the market his traded within the weekly VPM projected ranges of Support 2 and Resistance 2.

While last week I believed we would break out to the upside and reach the 2000 level, we saw the market remain in the trading range after just briefly making a new historical high. The probability remains at 60% that we could move above the 2000 level this week. The key will be a close over 1985.70. This close will signal a breakout and move toward a minimum objective of 1997/2006.

Intermediate charts continue to remain at trend levels suggesting that the market will continue higher over the next 6 to 8 weeks. The short-term charts are in a neutral phase and are waiting for this break out to be signaled. The critical level to the downside today is 1974.60. A penetration of this level would suggest a move down toward the 1970.80/1964.10 levels.

This week’s action will complete a monthly close. As long as we close above 1964.10 on Thursday, a continuation of the expanding monthly trend will be signaled.

For full details of the current trends and their expectations, tune into Market Thunder on Monday at 12 noon Eastern time.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1974.60 level today. 

This Week’s Key Levels

  ER 2006.80
  R3 2000.05
  R2 1992.55
Resistance R1 1985.05
Prior Close   1978.34 +0.12
Support S1 1971.65
  S2 1964.10
  S3 1956.60
  ES 1949.90

Today’s Key Levels

  ER 1985.70
  R3 1984.10
  R2 1982.10
Resistance R1 1980.15
Prior Close   1978.34 -9.64
Support S1 1976.55
  S2 1974.60
  S3 1972.60
  ES 1970.80

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Friday, July 25, 2014

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 2014-07-24.2

Volatility Contracts Again…

Yesterday’s action was one of the quieter sessions we’ve seen recently as the three day VPM range indicator dropped to 7.66. This continues to suggest that we are likely to see an increase in volatility over the next 2 to 3 sessions but it will take a break above the 1992.75 level today.

Should this occur, we should see the market move toward the 2000.40/2000.75 levels. The configuration suggests that a minor consolidation phase is unfolding. However, the market should not decline below the 1980.30 level today. A penetration of the 1991.80 level will signal a move towards 1995.65/2000.40.

With today being a weekly close, a close above 1986.20 will be bullish. This would suggest a continuation of this upward pattern for next week. It would take a close below 1963.70 to signal a weaker pattern. There is currently only a 30% probability for that to occur.

So far this week has unfolded in a S2/R2 pattern, just like last week. The projected support for the week was 1963.70. The actual low was 1965.77. Resistance 2 for the week was 1992.75. The intraday high for the week, which was rendered yesterday, was 1991.39.

I mentioned on Monday that this would be the week that we would see a break out above the key level of 1985.60. If we remain above this level today, it will signal a move toward the higher projections levels that I’ve talked about several times toward 2034/2072.

In yesterday’s commentary I mentioned that we did see the breakout above the 1985.60 level which has signaled new projections toward the higher range on the intermediate charts of 2039/2171.

The patterns continue to consolidate, stair-stepping prices higher without any excessive volume or volatility in the markets. This suggests that this pattern is likely to continue until we start to see some larger volatility come into the marketplace.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1980.30 level today. 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1995.65
  R3 1993.85
  R2 1991.80
Resistance R1 1989.80
Prior Close   1987.98 +0.97
Support S1 1986.20
  S2 1982.10
  S3 1980.30
  SX 1980.30

 

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Thursday, July 24, 2014

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2014-07-23.2
Market Closes into New High, Signals New Sequence…

Yesterday the market was finally able to close above 1985.60 with the close of 1987.01. This has signaled the next upward sequence for the market to begin. It will be critical that we remain above 1985.60 from the next two sessions to confirm this breakout.

The VPM projection tool has signaled a new upward target of 2074/2087 with an extreme target now of 2039/2171. As I’ve mentioned many times, both on Market Thunder as well as in the Daily Commentary, the patterns that keep unfolding are consolidating to signal the next sequence to the upside.

This projection also suggests that the probability that the market will stall at the 2000 level is only 30%. This pattern suggests that the market should move directly to the 2019/2034 levels and then continue on toward the 2074/2087 minimum objective.

The overall configuration on the intermediate charts suggests that if we get a close above 1985.60 on Friday then we should see at least 5 to 8 weeks of upward movement before the next consolidation or top will be rendered. The VPM three-day rangefinder has contracted back from 18.40 to 9.52 suggesting that we could see the volatility expand back toward the 18/22 levels in the next two sessions.

On a short-term basis, the key number is the 1991.75 level. Once this level is penetrated, we should see the challenge of 1996.55/2000.35 by Friday’s close.

The critical level on the downside today is 1982.25. If this level holds for the next two sessions then we should see the market maintain prices over 1985.60 with the possibility to reach the higher range objective of 1996/200.35.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1982.25 level today. 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1996.55
  R3 1994.30
  R2 1991.75
Resistance R1 1989.25
Prior Close   1987.01 +3.48
Support S1 1984.75
  S2 1982.25
  S3 1979.75
  SX 1977.50

 

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

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2014-07-22.2 

Market Moves Forward As Earnings Drive Markets…

We continued to see an upward bias throughout the session as we traded into a new historical high but failed to close at a new historical level. The 1985.60 level continues to be elusive from a closing basis. However, there is a 60% probability that we will see this level penetrated and closed above today. The short-term models have issued a minimum objective of 1990.10 but most likely target now is 1999.40/2005.15.

As I have discussed over the last several sessions, the market continues to have an upward bias and there is now a 60% probability that we will see the market move toward the 2000 level by the end of the week. A penetration of the 1990.35 level will be the trigger point for acceleration to the upside.

The critical level on the downside for today is 1976.70. If this level is penetrated, it will suggest a decline toward 1969.90/1965.45. Furthermore, it indicates that we will fall back into the trading range with a narrower range of 1965/1985.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1976.70 level today. 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1997.15
  R3 1993.95
  R2 1990.35
Resistance R1 1986.75
Prior Close   1983.53+9.90
Support S1 1980.30
  S2 1976.70
  S3 1973.15
  SX 1969.90

 

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