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Daily Quant | 2014 | August
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2014 August

Friday, August 29, 2014

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2014-08-28.2

The end of the summer and the month. The beginning of a long weekend!

Yesterday’s action continued the very quiet and narrow range. While the market did trade down below the extreme support yesterday, it bounced from that level to close moderately lower on the session. The configuration continues to indicate that the 2006.30 level is a critical level on the charts. This suggests that we still need a close above this level to signal higher prices. There is only a 40% probability that this will occur today.

With today being a monthly close, a close above 1989.70 will be positive. However, as I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, there is an outside reversal occurring. There’s a tendency for this type of pattern to form at a top rather than a continuation pattern to the upside.

Today is also a weekly close. A close above 2001.95 will suggests some follow through early next week.

While the market remains in a very quiet sideways range, it reminds me of an adage that I heard when I first started in the markets in 1979, “Never sell a quiet market.”

As of the writing of this commentary the European markets have started off quite strong in spite of what you would consider geopolitical risk as Russian tanks and troops are actually in the Ukraine. But the market participants seem to like it this time. There is a big powwow occurring in Rome and there will be a news release today at noon considering new sanctions against Russia.

The sanctions that have been in place so far have been a double edge sword. Many are expecting a potential retaliation by the Russians by hindering some energy exports from Russia to European nations. Italy for example gets 50% of their energy from Russia. Not to mention that winter is just around the corner and the energy battle could be the best bullet that Putin can shoot. But for now market participants don’t seem to be wavered by any of the activities in the Ukraine.

What does this all mean?

Tune into Market Thunder in the morning for a complete overview as it would take pages and pages to cover this in detail.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/vpm-partners

The key number on the downside today is 1991.55. A penetration of this level will suggest a decline toward 1981.45/1979.60

From a technical standpoint, it does appear that we will rally early in the session. But with many getting out of town early in the final day of summer and the Labor Day weekend, volume and activity is likely to dry up early in the session. Often thinly traded sessions can make some drastic movements. With the VPM rangefinder at 6.811, it is at the lowest levels we seen in many weeks suggest that a spike in volatility is just around the corner.

 

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1991.55 level today.  

 

 

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2003.55
R3 2001.95
R2 2000.15
Resistance R1 1998.35
Prior Close   1996.74 -3.38
Support S1 1995.15
S2 1993.35
S3 1991.55
SX 1989.95

 

Thursday, August 28, 2014

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2014-08-27.2

Markets remain flat…


Yesterday’s action continued the contraction in volatility. Currently, the VPM range finder is now at 7.54 while the VIX index closed at 11.78.
Further evidence of the markets being way overpriced is the current S&P earnings per share ratio. It is at 19.16. This is the highest level since 2010. One has to wonder what could drive this market higher. Europe is just opening and it is showing some moderate declines across the board as there seems to be no conviction after the comments from Draghi at Jackson Hole.
The reality is that the market seems to be waiting for more central bank stimulus to continue to drive the markets. I believe in the end, market participants will be disappointed. Later today we will have the release of GDP which is expected to show a 3.7% growth rate. In addition are the Jobless Claims at 300k and Pending Home Sales, up .5%.

Meanwhile the treasury market continues to decline as it has reached the 2.36% level and the German Bund has declined below 1% to .90%. As long as the European rates continue to decline, the influx of capital into the US treasuries will also continue. At this time, I do not believe the economic reports from the US are having much impact as the capital that is driving this market lower is not being driven by economic considerations.

Because of the configuration of both the 3 day VPM range indicator at 7.54 and the VIX at 11.78 the tone is set for an explosion in volatility which most likely will be to the downside. There is a 60% probability today that the market will take out the extreme low projected today at 1992.60 signaling a move potentially to 1981.65/1979.70.

 As I discussed in yesterday’s commentary, it is critical that the market closes above the 2006 level by the end of today’s session otherwise the upward momentum will fail indicating a high probability for the declines just discussed.

Today should be the biggest day from an economic report viewpoint as the reports that are coming out today could have some material impact on market sentiment. This being the case, expect market participants to respond to these reports with more enthusiasm than we’ve seen for a while.

 With only two sessions to go to the end of the month, it is likely that the market is going to finish above the 1989.70 level which was the extreme projected for the month of August.

While this month’s action has experienced an outside reversal bar to the upside, these tend only to be valid when they happen at a low point not at historical highs. About 60% of the time these type of patterns will be a climactic pattern suggesting a correction to follow on a monthly level. 

The action over the next two sessions will be important for the next several weeks of market activity.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2005.90 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2007.65
  R3 2005.90
  R2 2003.90
Resistance R1 2001.90
Prior Close   2000.12 +0.10
Support S1 1998.35
  S2 1996.35
  S3 1994.35
  SX 1992.60

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2014-08-26.2

Europe continues to struggle …

After a great start to the week, European markets are continuing to trade in a sideways pattern and are losing momentum quickly. Despite having moved higher to render new historical highs in the US, momentum continues to struggle to accelerate in Europe and the US.

Now we are in the final week of summer as the typical September volume is about 25% higher than August. But more volume does not equate to higher prices.

As I have mentioned over the last several sessions, the target range is 2001/2008 and yesterday’s high was 2005.04. Volatility continues to contract as the three day VPM range indicator is at 8.48. The market finished near the lows of the session, indicating a minor reversal. While the folks at CNBC are partying over the close at 2000.02, there’s really not much to celebrate as the breath of the market continues to be quite narrow.

Today is one of the quieter sessions this week from a news standpoint. We will likely see some backfilling if the market cannot get above 2006.50 today. Failure to penetrate this level will indicate the possibilities of the market declining toward the 1993.55/1991.55 levels. A penetration of 1991.55 will suggest a minimum decline toward 1979.70 over the next 3 to 5 sessions.

However, should the 2006.50 level be penetrated then a continuation rally will be signaled toward the 2008/2012 levels. It appears from a news standpoint that Thursday will be the big day this week. There is a release of GDP which is anticipated to show a 3.7% growth rate. Jobless Claims are projected to be at 300k. And then the final report of the day, Pending Home Sales, is expected to be up 0.5%. These reports may have a positive effect, but reports so far have been mixed with a bias to the weaker side overall.

The geopolitical risk both in the Gaza Strip as well as the Ukraine has had very little effect on any of the market participant’s recent activities.

The market should open flat to higher with a 60 percent probability to close lower should the market remain below the 2006.50 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2008.50
  R3 2006.50
  R2 2004.25
Resistance R1 2002.05
Prior Close   2000.02 +2.10
Support S1 1998.00
  S2 1995.80
  S3 1993.55
  SX 1991.55

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

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2014-08-25.2

Is the party over in Europe?

As European markets started last evening, they began trading on the downside slightly and all of the enthusiasm from yesterday’s rally seemed to have lost its luster. There is a big meeting with the Russians and the Ukrainians today to discuss many elements of the conflict that has been ongoing over the past four months. It appears to be a failure before it even has begun. At risk are Russian oil flow and the possibility of shortages of gas as well as LP over the winter months as we are getting closer to the fall.

But the risk here is that the rally that unfolded yesterday was due to the expectations of the ECB implementing some sort of QE program. But it appears that it would be late September, may be late October, before any action would be taken. There doesn’t seem to be anything on the short term other than expectations of these events.

Here in the US we will be focusing on Durable Goods, the Case Schiller Index, and Consumer Confidence reports to give us further evidence of what’s going on in the economy. Yesterday’s reports missed across the board, showing weaker than expected results. This has continued to be the case over the past several weeks as market participants have been more focused on geopolitical risk than economic results.

This may ultimately be the beginning of a minor decline that would be driven by weaker economic expectations and the continuation of the backdrop of geopolitical risk.

From a technical viewpoint the VIX has moved back to 11.70. This sets a scenario for a decline back to the 1960/1951.65 level over the next 5 to 8 sessions. This will be signaled by a decline below 1988.95.

Also, the VPM three-day range indicator has dropped to 8.98. This suggests that there is a further increase in the probability of a downward spike in the next two sessions. Should this occur, the market would decline to the next support levels between 1979.70 and 1970.00.

The configuration further indicates that if the market cannot close above 2002.40 that there will be an increased risk of a minor failure at these levels. However, should the market close above this level, we could see a further gain in the market toward 2008/2012 basis the S&P.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2002.40 level today. 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2006.90
  R3 2004.80
  R2 2002.40
Resistance R1 2000.05
Prior Close   1997.92 +9.52
Support S1 1995.80
  S2 1993.45
  S3 1991.05
  SX 1988.95

The Weekly Brief: Monday, August 25, 2014

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Market Overview
2014-08-25 YTD

YTD Performance S&P 500 Pacing2014-08-25 SPPacing

Draghi stimulates Europe from Jackson Hole…

European markets have begun on a very strong note after comments that Mario Draghi wants European nations to lower taxes to stimulate economy… This may be the big turning point that I been discussing on Market Thunder shows over the past several weeks. It is possible that Europe can take the lead here which could ultimately cause declines or underperformance on a relative basis here in the US. While initially the markets are likely to sympathetically tag along, ultimately there will be a disconnect between Europe and the US. As we come into the end of August as well as the summer, the markets are continuing to move higher as we saw the market action move the S&P above the extreme expectation for August which was 1989.70. This coming week the news that will drive the market is substantial as we have a barrage of new information coming out on the economy. On Monday New Home Sales and PMI services. Tuesday, Durable Goods, Case Schiller Index, and Consumer Confidence. Wednesday has very little coming out but then Thursday picks up the slack with GDP which is expected to be positive by 3.7%, Jobless Claims at 300k, and Pending Home Sales up one half of percent. Lastly on Friday we have Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment. While we have seen volatility drop over the last several days, it is likely to increase over the next 3 to 5 sessions partially due to the news and the activity that is occurring in Europe. Expect this to be an active week in the markets.

By the Box

YTD Performance

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes1

Performance Divergence

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 08/18/2014

2014-08-25 PriorWeek

2014-08-25 PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week

Monday

Monday the market began the week on an upbeat note with small caps leading the markets. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% while the S&P 500 gained 0.9% with eight of the 10 sectors posting gains. The markets surged right out of the gate and spent the entire afternoon in narrow ranges near their high. Although the Russell 2000 led the way, it was unable to get above some key resistance areas. We saw the geopolitical risk move further to the background early in the week taking off a lot of risk in the markets.

Tuesday

The markets continued to move higher as the market started on a strong note, pushing the S&P 500 up 0.5%. It was a broad-based rally that sent nine of the 10 sectors in positive territory. Most of it stimulated by an in-line CPI report suggested inflationary pressures remain contained combined with better than expected housing starts report boosted the market and we saw homebuilders up 0.8% on the session

Wednesday

While the markets continued higher on Wednesday, we saw a mixed market as small caps finished lower on the session as did the NASDAQ with the S&P 500 up 0.25%. The market traded in a narrow range for most of the session while market participants waited for the FOMC meeting minutes from the July session. There was a reference that the committee was becoming more convinced that the recent job gains could bring forward a sooner than expected rate hike.

Thursday

Thursday’s action started on a slightly positive note and climbed into the last hour of trading where it lost some ground to close up 0.29%. The markets were able to reach a new all-time high close at 1992.35 as the markets stayed positive throughout the slow session. Overall the market was somewhat mixed with financials leading the way up 1.1% and technology second with 0.5%.

Friday

The major averages saw a mixed performance on Friday but the S&P was able to finish the week with a gain of 1.71% even though it finished lower on the day by 0.20%. Most market participants were hoping to hear some new insight from Fed chair Janet Yellen. The speech was a disappointment to those that were looking for clues about the Fed’s policy and the course in the near-term. The market traded in a lackluster session overall finishing near the lows of the session.

S&P 500 for 08/22/14

2014-08-22.2

Market action on Friday was able to punctuate a 1.71% gain for the week. While the close was unable to maintain above the 1991.30 level, it did render a historic weekly close. The configuration continues to suggest that there is a bias to the upside but it will be necessary to finish above 1995.45 today to keep upward momentum expanding on a short-term basis.

A failure to close above this level would suggest some consolidation just under the 2000 level. With the overnight action in Europe, it appears that the markets will be in position to challenge some of these key numbers between 1995.45 and 1997.60.

A penetration will suggest a further advance toward the 2001/2008 levels. The extreme in this pattern for now is 2012. Penetration of this level would have further implications that this zone should supply a substantial amount of resistance.

The intermediate charts are showing reemergence of trending characteristics in the S&P 500 as PPM one has reached .27, just above the trend level. This does suggest that the intermediate objectives of 2034/2072 basis the S&P 500 are valid and could be reached within the next 6 to 8 weeks. The configuration suggests that it is critical that the market remains above the 1970 level this week to maintain this bullish stance.

The VPM database did not see a lot of new rotation and there are still thousands of broken trend patterns which suggests that the market breath is likely to remain narrow. As a result, it appears that this leg up will be the final leg of the rally.

The market trek continued for the 10th day in the pattern and the fifth day up in a row. The market closed above the old high at the 1991.30 with the close of 1992.37. The market would appear to be set for a new breakout but we are not seeing a surge in upward momentum. In fact, there are many death crosses occurring today where the 10 period moving average goes through the 40 period moving averages on the upside. 80% of the time this signals a minor top of the pattern suggesting a 3 to 5 day decline. As I have discussed over the last several days, the target zone of 1991/1999 is a likely point for this market to form a top.

The fact that the market has made a new high does not mean a new trend has begun. In fact, on a weekly basis we are not seeing any real acceleration in the trend. While other indices such as the midcap and the small-cap indices have rebounded, they are off their highs and are not confirming to this new high in the market. As I’ve discussed many times, the final leg of the market is usually led by the large cap stocks which is the case at the moment. This suggests that we are growing ever closer to an intermediate top. Also the VPM 3-day range indicator has declined to 9.56 which typically suggests that the market volatility will increase in the next 2 to 3 sessions. Normally it is in the adverse direction of the trend suggesting that we should see some downward action.

It is interesting reviewing our Global Equity Strategies as the old standard ETF DI is only long SPY and EEM. The rest of the indices are flat from a position standpoint and all of them are off their highs. EFA is substantially off its high.

What does this all mean? Tune into Market Thunder in the morning for a complete overview as it would take pages and pages to cover this in detail.

The intermediate charts continue to be longer-term bullish with the short-term in a neutral mode. In spite of this new high, we are not seeing any acceleration as well.

Three weeks ago we had generated a substantial exits in our database. A general review of those symbols will reveal that this trend that is currently unfolding is a very narrow driven trend where there are not a lot of stocks rendering new highs in the pattern. This is typical as it was in 2007 and also in 2000. When the major tops were rendered, fewer and fewer stocks were participating.

The critical level on the downside today is 1987.60. A penetration would suggest a minor pattern failure and a further decline toward 1982.80/1978.45.

A close above the 1991.30 would give a further impetus toward higher prices early next week. There currently is only a 40% probability for this to occur

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1983.80 level today. 

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 2025.20
R3 2016.50
R2 2006.80
Resistance R1 1997.10
Prior Close   1988.40 +33.34
Support S1 1979.70
S2 1970.00
S3 1960.30
ES 1951.65

Today’s Key Levels

ER 1997.60
R3 1995.45
R2 1993.00
Resistance R1 1990.60
Prior Close   1988.40 -3.97
Support S1 1986.20
S2 1983.80
S3 1981.35
ES 1979.20

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Friday, August 22, 2014

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2014-08-21

New highs but…

 

The market trek continued for the 10th day in the pattern and the fifth day up in a row. While the market closed above the old high of 1991.30 with the close of 1992.37, the market would appear to be set for new breakout but we are not seeing a surge in upward momentum. In fact there is a death cross occurring today where the 10 period moving average goes through the 40 period moving averages on the upside. 80% of the time this signals a minor top of the pattern suggesting a 3 to 5 day decline. As I have discussed over the last several days, the target zone of 1991/1999 is a likely point for this market to form a top.

The fact that the market has made a new high does not mean a new trend has begun. In fact, on a weekly basis we are not seeing any real acceleration in the trend. While other indices such as the midcap and the small-cap indices have rebounded, they are off their highs and are not confirming to this new high in the market. As I’ve discussed many times, the final leg of the market is usually led by the large cap stocks which is the case at the moment. This suggests that we are growing ever closer to an intermediate top. Also the VPM 3-day range indicator has declined to 9.56 which typically suggests that the market volatility will increase in the next 2 to 3 sessions. Normally it is in the adverse direction of the trend suggesting that we should see some downward action.

What does this all mean?

Tune into Market Thunder in the morning for a complete overview as it would take pages and pages to cover this in detail.

It is interesting reviewing our Global Equity strategies as the old standard ETF DI is long SPY and the EEM. The rest of the indices are flat from a position standpoint. All of them are off their highs and the EFA is substantially off its high.

The intermediate charts continue to be longer-term bullish with a short-term in a neutral mode. In spite of this new high, we are seeing any acceleration as well.

Three weeks ago we had generated substantial exits in our database. A general review of those symbols will reveal that this trend that is currently unfolding is a very narrow driven trend where there are not a lot of stocks rendering new highs in the pattern. This is typical as it was in 2007 and also in 2000 when the major tops were rendered, fewer and fewer stocks were participating.

The critical level on the downside today is 1987.60. A penetration would suggest a minor pattern failure and a further decline toward the 1982.80/1978.45.

A close above 1991.30 would give a further impetus toward higher prices early next week. There currently is only a 40% probability for this to occur

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1991.30 level today. 

 

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2001.95
R3 1999.70
R2 1997.15
Resistance R1 1994.65
Prior Close   1992.37 +5.86
Support S1 1990.10
S2 1987.60
S3 1985.05
SX 1982.81

 

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2014-08-20.2


Day 9… And counting

While the market has not been up every day in the last nine, it has been nine days from the lows that we saw at 1905. The configuration suggests that after nine sessions in a pattern that there is a 70% probability that a top will be rendered in the next two sessions.

This would suggest that the market could end the week on a negative note. The trigger points for this event would be a penetration of 1975.05. Should this occur, it would suggest a minimum decline to 1964/1958 over the next 3 to 5 sessions.

On the upside there is a clustering of objectives which usually also suggests that the pattern is reaching an extreme. The range for the top of this pattern now is 1991.30/2002.50. These levels represent the Resistance 3 and the Extreme Resistance on the weekly projections. A failure to get above 1991.30 followed by a lower close would also indicate a minor topping pattern.

Should a close be rendered over 1991.30, it would indicate an extension toward the 2002.50 level.

The three day volatility range has contracted back to 11.44. Should this go below the 10.0 level, it would lend further evidence for a possible top by Friday. Thursday’s activity will be key on several levels to determine how the balance of the week will play out.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1991.30 level today. 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1997.95
  R3 1995.25
  R2 1992.25
Resistance R1 1989.20
Prior Close   1986.51 +4.91
Support S1 1983.80
  S2 1980.80
  S3 1977.75
  SX 1975.05

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

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2014-08-19.2

Markets surge continues…

The market continued to surge as we closed above the 1978.60 level signaling a test of the historical highs at 1991.40. The minimum target now is for the market to move toward the 1989.30/1991.40 levels over the next two sessions.

The three day VPM range indicator has continued to expand slightly to 15.34 suggesting that it is likely to move above the 20 level again in the next two sessions. Due to the highly overbought state, it is likely that a downward reversal can occur setting up a retest of key support.

The short-term daily PPM has moved to +.3168 putting it in an uptrend mode. This suggests that the 10 week moving average that is currently at 1944.24 is rising approximately 4 points per day. This indicates that the key support level will be between 1957.05/1952.60.

Should the historical highs be penetrated, the upward objective is for a move to 1999.60/2002.40. While the market has rebounded sharply, it has been somewhat a narrow rebound with very low volume which is likely to fall to profit-taking once a peak value is determined.

Expect this trend to continue through today with the risk of a reversal should the 1973.95 level be penetrated. Otherwise expect the market to close higher again.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1973.95 level today. 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1996.95
  R3 1993.30
  R2 1989.30
Resistance R1 1985.20
Prior Close   1981.60 +9.86
Support S1 1978.00
  S2 1973.95
  S3 1969.90
  SX 1966.25

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