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Daily Quant | 2014 | September
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2014 September

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2014-09-29.2 

Support Holds Ahead of Economic Reports

Yesterday’s early decline tested the 1970s/1964 levels that I mentioned in Monday’s commentary. The configuration suggests that we are likely to get a 2 to 3 day rally should the 1972.40 level hold early in the session today.

These support levels did hold and we saw a sharp rebound with the market closing lower on the session but in the upper 60% of the range. This has signaled a minor reversal pattern that is likely to last at least two sessions and should trade toward the 1989/1991.45 levels during this period.

However, should the 1972.40 level be penetrated, expect to see a retest of the 1966.35/1964.40 levels. A penetration of 1964 will suggest a further move toward 1954.90/1951.60. There currently is only a 30% probability for this to occur today.

Should the market close above 1991.45, we could see a further rally toward the 1995.30/2000.70 levels. There currently is only a 30% probability for the market to close over 1991.45.

Market participants are likely to be on hold until we see the ADP numbers on Wednesday, the jobless claims on Thursday and the employment situation revealed on Friday before the open before any major moves occur. We did see the average three day range contract slightly and I expect that this will continue to move back toward the 15 level from the current level of 22.90.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1972.40 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2000.70
R3 1995.30
R2 1989.25
Resistance R1 1983.20
Prior Close   1977.80 -5.05
Support S1 1972.40
S2 1966.35
S3 1960.30
SX 1954.90

 

The Weekly Brief: Monday, September 29 2014

Posted by | The Weekly Brief | No Comments

Market Overview
2014-08-25 YTD

YTD Performance S&P 500 Pacing2014-08-25 SPPacing

Market bounces but… Huge week ahead!

With just two more sessions to go in the month of September, should we close below the 1978.60 level it will signal much lower prices for the month of October. September has been a turbulent month as we have traded into historical highs at 2019 only to reverse sharply lower. The expectations for October are likely to be a continuation of the downside volatility that we saw begin midmonth in September. The VPM models continue to see a deterioration as we have declined down to a 34.19% bullish percent.

As we end the month of September and begin October we will be faced with some of the biggest news for the next quarter. The calendar will be full on mostly about employment and housing. On Monday we will see Pending Home Sales released. Tuesday has the Case Schiller Index, Consumer Confidence, and Chicago PMI. Wednesday will have the ADP Employment Report which is expected to show a 205,000 increase. On Thursday Jobless Claims and Factory Orders. And then on Friday the Employment Situation with expectations of a 215,000 increase and the unemployment level to remain unchanged at 6.1%.

Historically, October has been a very weak month. But it also has been a month where we have seen bottoms form. The growing problem in the stock market is that there is becoming fewer and fewer reasons to own the market from a fundamental standpoint. While it is generally accepted that the economy will continue to expand, most market participants are assuming that further expansion will equate into higher stock prices. It is likely once the economy continues to grow that we will see the market began to discount forward earnings.

Should continuing nervousness occur over the next two weeks, we could see a substantial decline in the markets as risk-averse assets are likely to come more into favor. We’ve already seen a slight rotation into defensive type assets. The key element that continues to happen is that the market breath or the bullish percent continues to contract as the market has made new highs. 

This sets the tone for ultimately a collapse in prices as the final leg of most bull markets are led by the large caps which is the only segment of the markets that have remained reasonably bullish throughout the last four months. The small-cap market continues to deteriorate which is likely to keep market sentiment continuing to get more negative over the weeks to come.

By the Box

YTD Performance

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes1

Performance Divergence

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 09/22/2014

2014-08-25 PriorWeek

2014-08-25 PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week

Monday
The market began the trading week on a defensive note as it opened lower and continued to trend lower for most of the session. The S&P finished down 0.80 % with all 10 sectors finishing in the red. Some of the reaction came from China as the finance minister suggested that there would not be a continuing stimulus package delivered to the economy. Meanwhile, in Japan it was rumored that the government will remain on track for another consumption tax hike which has already flattened their economy substantially.

Tuesday
The market began on a weaker note but rallied back to the unchanged level. However, it was unable to rally into positive territory as the market began to sell off into the close, gradually finishing down 0.58%. Rumors about the proposed new rules by the Treasury Department on inversion deals were pressuring the market for most of the session. By the end of the session it was no longer rumors as the Treasury had announced some new rules moving forward on tax inversion. This could affect the M&A deals substantially moving forward.

Wednesday

After two sessions of declines the market finally found some traction and rallied throughout the day to close up 0.78% basis the S&P 500. This rally was in spite of a slightly lower opening. The market tested the 40 day moving average at 1978.50. There was a sharp short covering in the last two hours of trading, pushing the market back to the 1998 level by the end of the session. Just about everything rallied including crude oil which was able to tack on 1.6% and move back to 93.03 per barrel.

Thursday

The market started on a lower note and sold off sharply in the first two hours of trading as the market penetrated through the 40 day moving average at 1978.50 and continued down toward the 1965 level before finishing down 1.62% on the session basis the S&P 500. In the end it was difficult to find any reason for the decline other than market sentiment had continued to deteriorate when the 1978.50 level was penetrated and the “buy the dippers” didn’t show up. Everything that rallied on Wednesday was down on Thursday.

Friday

Friday’s action traded down and tested Thursday’s lows and held as the market traded in a sideways pattern for the first several hours. In the last two hours the market began a rally with the S&P finishing up 0.86% on the session, but closing down 1.3% on the week. Overall it was a tough week for all the indices with the Russell leading the way down by 2.4%. The small-cap sector continues to be the weakest component of the markets and is likely to keep sentiment from changing much over the next several days.

 

S&P 500 for 09/26/14

2014-09-26.2
The configuration suggests that the market is likely to test the 1977.15 level early in the session. Should this level be penetrated, there is a 60% probability a decline toward the 1970.75/1964.35 level will be signaled over the next 2 to 3 sessions.
The key number on the upside is 1994.95. If this level is penetrated then a full retracement back to the 2007.10 level will be likely. There currently is only a 30% probability for this to occur. 

The three day VPM volatility range indicator has spiked back to 24.2. I expect this to start to contract over the next two days as the markets are likely to go on hold prior to the release of the unemployment levels on Friday.

Most of the markets continue to be quite complacent from a volatility viewpoint as the VIX spiked to 16.69 briefly but finished the week at 14.85. While the market was able to rally back and close just above the 1978.50 level, this will continue to be the critical level as the month ends on Tuesday. A close below this level on Tuesday will suggest much lower prices for October and point toward a confirmation of a major high.

However, it will take a penetration and close below 1904.50 on a weekly basis to confirm a top at the 2019 level. This is not likely to happen in the month of September but could occur sometime in the first two weeks of October. If this occurs, then expect to see a major top signaled and a decline began toward the 1763 level over the next 2 to 3 months.

The weekly chart suggests that there is substantial support at the 1904 level. But should this be penetrated, there is no support until we get to the 1763 level.
Also, as mentioned earlier, we did see a decline to the 34% bullish level which suggests that the VPM database is likely to continue to liquidate toward the 28% to 22% level before this decline will be completed.

Tune into Market Thunder at 12 noon Eastern Time to get a full breakdown of the technical patterns as well as the internals of the VPM database.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1988.60 level today.  

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 2019.80
R3 2011.05
R2 2001.30
Resistance R1 1991.60
Prior Close   1982.85 -27.55
Support S1 1974.15
S2 1964.40
S3 1954.65
ES 1945.90

Today’s Key Levels

ER 2007.10
R3 2001.35
R2 1994.95
Resistance R1 1988.60
Prior Close   1982.85 +16.86
Support S1 1977.15
S2 1970.75
S3 1964.35
ES 1958.65

Friday, September 26, 2014

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2014-09-25.2 

Market reverses and plummets…

Yesterday’s action saw an extreme selloff going through all support levels on the VPM Price Projections. The extreme low was projected to be 1981.00 while the low of the session, which was also the close, was 1965.99.

The configuration has further signaled that the market is likely to go toward the 1960.85/1955.15 levels over the next two sessions. A penetration of 1955.15 will suggest a further decline toward 1949.40/1944.30.

The markets have clearly broken down and are signaling much lower prices in the pattern. A close below 1978.50 today will suggest that there will be a retest of the 1905 level rendered last month. As I discussed over the last several months, this has a huge implication for the longer-term trend. This suggests that we would likely see somewhere between a 10% and 18% decline over the next several months.

A complete breakdown of the details will be covered in the Market Thunder show at 12:00 noon Eastern Time today. Make sure that you tune in to watch the show.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/vpm-partners

While one pundit after another shows up on CNBC to tell you that it’s all okay, it isn’t. It is clear that there is a shift in sentiment. Yesterday’s decline never saw one opportunity to even try to rally as the market sold off into the lows of the session at the close. This is not the type of market that is looking for any type of bounce. The buyers have become very squeamish suggesting that a buying strike is on. We should see these lower prices unfold.

On the upside, the key number for today is 1976.85. A penetration of this level would suggest a minor rally and a higher close. There is only a 30% probability for that to occur at this time.

Europe began on a flat to higher note and then saw the German market see some heavy selling again right off of the opening. Prior to the open today the GDP numbers will be released. If these numbers have any negative surprise we could see a massive selloff as we go into the weekend.

For full coverage, be sure to tune into Market Thunder show at 12 noon Eastern Standard Time.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 40 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 1976.85 level today.  

 

Today’s Key Levels

RX 1987.70
R3 1982.60
R2 1976.85
Resistance R1 1971.15
Prior Close   1965.99 -32.31
Support S1 1960.85
S2 1955.15
S3 1949.40
SX 1944.30

 

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2014-09-24.2

Two steps backwards one forward…

In the last three sessions we’ve seen -16.11, -11.52, +15.53. I haven’t discussed this for a while but the trading range between 1980/2020 continues to be intact. Yesterday’s short covering rally retraced 50% of the decline so far. Should we move toward the 2002.40/2003.70 levels, it would represent a 61% retracement which is a typical retracement before the market would resume to the downside.

If you ask “What has changed in the last three days, or the last three weeks?” the answer is “nothing.” This is why the market continues to be locked in a range in spite of a housing report that was positive today. Most of the reports coming out of the economy continue to be mixed. Some good, some bad. But in the end, more signs of a slowing down economy. Not just here in the US, but across the globe.

The configuration suggests that typically after a three day decline of the magnitude that we experienced, we should get two days up, and another 3 to 5 sessions down. The key number that I discussed over the past several days was the 1978.50 level. The low yesterday was 1978.63. The market bounced sharply off this level triggering an outside reversal day up. Should today close higher, then it’s likely we could see a further retracement. But there’s extreme resistance between 2006.95/2011.50 over the next two sessions.

Should a close be rendered above 2006.95, this would suggest that a further rally toward the 2011.50/2015.60 levels would be indicated. The historical high is 2019.26. There’s currently only a 30% probability for that level to be penetrated.

The configuration further suggests that the market should complete the two day rally today and then resume the downtrend as we move into Friday and early next week. There still is a 60% probability that the 1978.50 level will be tested in the next 5 to 8 sessions again. A penetration would suggest much lower prices in the pattern. But for the time being, it appears that we are locked in the trading range until we get a penetration of 1978.50 or a close above 2019.26.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 40 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2002.40 level today.  

 

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2015.60
  R3 2011.50
  R2 2006.95
Resistance R1 2002.40
Prior Close   1998.30 +15.53
Support S1 1994.20
  S2 1989.65
  S3 1985.10
  SX 1981.00

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Wednesday, September 24, 2014

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2014-09-23.2

Market declines for the third session…

The markets continued the decline yesterday as we saw the Dow Jones down over 100 and the S&P down 11.52 at 1982.77. Furthermore, we saw not only the Russell 2000 decline sharply but also the transportation index which is somewhat of an ominous sign for the economy.
The configuration suggests that a lower close today would indicate another 2 to 5 sessions lower, potentially moving the markets down toward the 1968/1964 levels.

However, if the market holds 1979.35 for the first two hours and rallies above 1990.00, then there’s a possibility of a two day rally. This rally should remain below the 1997.25 level and then reverse to retest Tuesday’s lows toward the end of the week.

It appears that the markets will open a bit firmer in the morning in response to a minor recovery rally that is unfolding in Europe.

As I have been discussing for many weeks now, the US recovery appears to be slowing down along with China and Europe who are also showing signs of further weakness. Many major institutions have lowered their estimates for China. It is likely that we are going to see further declines from the negative market sentiment this is generating.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 40 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1979.35 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 1997.25
  R3 1993.80
  R2 1990.00
Resistance R1 1986.20
Prior Close   1982.77 -11.52
Support S1 1979.35
  S2 1975.55
  S3 1971.70
  SX 1968.30

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2014-09-22.2 

Russell 2000 collapses leading markets lower…

Yesterday’s action saw an extreme selloff in the Russell 2000 as it was down 1.53% on the session. The S&P 500 was off by .80% closing at 1994.29. The configuration suggests that we should continue to move lower. The key level for today on the downside will be 1991.15. A penetration of this level will suggest a further decline toward the 1987.60/1986.60 level.

The monthly price objectives suggest that we should test the S1 level at 1986.60 as we have already reached the R1 level at 2020.15 with an intraday high of 2019.26. This is where the market reversed on Friday. Now, we are about to test the S1 level. Should we penetrate 1986.60, then a further decline toward the 1978.50 level is likely. 

This level is a key pivot point in the pattern. If it’s penetrated, then a minimum objective of 1967.45/1954.60 will be targeted.

On the upside, the 2007.65 level will need to be penetrated to signal a reversal and higher prices. There’s currently only a 30% probability for that to occur.

The configuration further suggests that there should be at least another 3 to 5 sessions of lower prices. Yesterday’s action did confirm these lower prices by closing below the 1997.30 level.

The market should open flat to lower with a 60 percent probability to close lower should the market remain lower the 2000.95 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2007.65
R3 2004.50
R2 2000.95
Resistance R1 1997.45
Prior Close   1994.29 -16.11
Support S1 1991.15
S2 1987.60
S3 1984.10
SX 1980.95

 

The Weekly Brief: Monday, September 22, 2014

Posted by | The Weekly Brief | No Comments

Market Overview
2014-08-25 YTD

YTD Performance S&P 500 Pacing2014-08-25 SPPacing

Has the Fed become irrelevant?

As I mentioned in Friday’s commentary, the bond market had a much different read than stocks did on the Feds lack of change. The bond participants heard the Hawks and the equity participants heard the doves. In the end, it is becoming more obvious that the Fed’s so-called transparency has finally just caused confusion and its ability to convey any level of confidence in the market appears to have been lost.

Meanwhile, there’s plenty of economic news out this week to drive the markets. On Monday, Existing Home Sales will be the key report. On Tuesday, the Red Book, FHFA Housing Price Index, and the PMI Manufacturing Index. On Wednesday, New Home Sales and several Fed presidents are speaking, Thursday has Durable Goods and Jobless Claims. And finally on Friday, GDP and Consumer Sentiment. While most of these reports are minor, the markets will be focused on the housing reports and the GDP on Friday. I believe the most significant one will be the GDP on Friday as it is likely to have a material effect on market sentiment.

On Friday we saw yet another new historical high but the market reversed after printing those highs to close slightly lower on the session. This is a sign of a lack of follow-through as we saw the largest IPO in the history of the markets with Alibaba. The reality of this offering is that it was priced at the high end of the expectations. The demand was heavy but we saw a massive turnover in the stock as 271+ million shares traded. The market makers are going to have their hands full to keep the stock above 90 in the days to come. A close below 90 will signal a capitulation and likely to have implications across the stock market.

By the Box

YTD Performance

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes1

Performance Divergence

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 09/15/2014

2014-08-25 PriorWeek

2014-08-25 PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week

Monday

The week began with a mixed session as the large cap market continued to lead the way as the high beta names were underperforming. In the end, the S&P 500 finished down 0.7%. The markets were negative for most of the session as we saw a brief rally toward unchanged and then finished slightly lower with the Dow Jones finishing up 0.3%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 both lost 1.1%. Most of the caution early in the session was due to weakness reported in China overnight.

Tuesday

Tuesday’s session began on a lower note but was able to stage a substantial rally as the S&P 500 closed up 0.75% on the session. Once again the markets were led by the large caps as the Russell could not keep the pace and was up only 0.3%. In the first two hours of trade the markets traded in a flat pattern but we saw a short covering rally ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes as rumors started to flow that there would be no change in their statement. Everything centered on the words “considerable time” being taken out of the statement.

Wednesday

Stocks began the session slightly higher and drifted down to unchanged just before the FOMC meeting minutes being released. The market saw a spike in volatility as initially it sold off and then rallied, testing the historical highs before selling off to close up 0.13% on the S&P 500. As expected, the Fed continues to drop its asset purchases by 10 billion and will complete the program by the end of October. But in the end, the phase “considerable time” was left in the statement. The bond market responded by rates moving higher toward the 2.62% level as the bond participants continued to respond to news differently than stocks.

Thursday

Thursday’s action started with an initial rally pushing up about one half a percent and remaining in that flat line for most of the session. The financial sector led the session as it was up 1.1% providing substantial support for the second day in a row, pushing the September gain to 1.9% for the month. Also, technology and healthcare were up 0.7% and 0.8% respectively which also helped market sentiment.

Friday

The market saw a sharply higher opening in response to the Scottish vote and the reaction in Europe overnight. We saw the S&P 500 spike to the 2019.26 level but then began to sell off for the balance of the session pushing down into new lows to the 2006.59 level to close slightly lower at 2010.40.

In hindsight, most of the action that we saw from Wednesday on was mostly related to the quadruple expiration that occurred on Friday. This kept an underlying bid as many of these trades were being unwound in the first 2 to 3 hours of Friday session. Once this was done we saw the market unwind. Also the drawback after the rally in Alibaba added to the weakness. At the close the S&P was down 0.5% but finished the week higher by 1.25%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ composite and the Russell declined at the end of the week by 0.3% and 1.3% respectively.

 

S&P 500 for 09/19/14

2014-09-12.2
Friday’s action saw a new high being rendered only to be met with heavy selling, pushing the market from 2019.26 down to 2006.59. The market closed slightly lower, signaling a minor reversal pattern. This suggests that the market will trade back to the minor support levels between 2000.35/1997.30.

The configuration suggest that if the market closes lower today, then we will see a further decline toward the 1995.60/1987.80 levels.

However, the action last week on the short-term charts has generated a new upward objective of 2084. This coincides with the intermediate objectives of 2034 to the 2072 levels. The existing pattern will remain intact and the upward targets will be valid as long as the market remains above 1978.50. A penetration of this level will negate the upward targets and signal further declines toward the 1954/1924 areas.

There continues to be a struggle to remain above 2000. As of the writing of this commentary, the futures are indicating that the markets could open sharply lower and challenge the support between the 2003.85/2000.35 levels. A penetration of the 2000.35 level will indicate a further decline toward the 1997.30/1995.60 levels.

As I mentioned earlier, there is a substantial amount of news coming up this week. Based on the current pattern, it appears that it is going to be difficult for the market to continue higher this week if we close lower on Monday’s session.

A higher close today above 2013.50 will signal a further move toward the 2020.45/2023.55 levels. There currently is only a 30% probability for this to occur.

The VPM database continues to remain below the critical 42% range at 39.80. This suggests that the market will continue in a corrective phase in spite of the spike in prices last week.

As I have mentioned before, the market is being led by the large cap stocks and the higher momentum and small-cap stocks are continuing to be under pressure.

Be sure to tune into the market thunder at 12 noon Eastern standard Time for a complete recap of database and index expectations.

The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2013.50 level today.

 

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 2040.00
R3 2033.00
R2 2025.20
Resistance R1 2017.40
Prior Close   2010.40 +24.86
Support S1 2003.40
S2 1995.60
S3 1987.80
ES 1980.80

Today’s Key Levels

ER 2023.55
R3 2020.45
R2 2016.95
Resistance R1 2013.50
Prior Close   2010.40 -0.96
Support S1 2007.30
S2 2003.85
S3 2000.35
ES 1997.30

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Friday, September 19, 2014

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2014-09-18.2 

The Scots say No!

The results are in and the Scottish people have decided to stay with the UK. This has generally stimulated a rally across most markets. But in the end you have to ask yourself, “What does the Scotland vote have to do with corporate profits in America?” The answer is clearly, “Nothing.” Currently, the futures are up at the beginning of the European open. I expect as US traders come in that this current fluff in the market will fade.

Yesterday, we did see a penetration of the old highs and a close into historical highs. But once again the markets continue to show a very narrow participation. As I have discussed many times over the last several months, this rally is primarily a large Growth rally which continues to move forward. The Russell 2000 and the Mid-Cap indices continue to lag substantially.

I discussed that a close over 2007 would signal a new high and the possibility of going to 2034. This is highly likely that we will reach this level. The extreme in the pattern that is allowed now is 2070. However, it will be critical that the market remain above the 2007 level on a closing basis today. A close below this would signal a negative connotation to the lack of follow-through on the rally. A move toward the 2017.80 today would be a test of the S2 on the weekly bars. This level is likely to represent a major resistance zone.

A complete breakdown of the details will be covered in the Market Thunder show at 12:00 noon Eastern Time today. Make sure that you tune in to watch the show.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/vpm-partners

While there is no new information from an economic viewpoint that would propel the markets higher, it appears to be just more status quo with market participants continuing to remain optimistic due to the lack of change in the Fed as they continue to pick and choose very selectively what stocks they are willing to own at these levels.

On the downside, should the market penetrate through 2003.05, this would signal a pattern break down which would suggest a further decline to 1994.70.

 

The market should open higher with a 60 percent probability to close higher should the market remain above the 2007.45 level today.  

 

 

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2028.00
R3 2024.10
R2 2019.70
Resistance R1 2015.30
Prior Close   2011.36 +9.79
Support S1 2007.45
S2 2003.05
S3 1998.65
SX 1994.70

 

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