Market lifts off…

Reminder there will not be a Market Thunder show today. The next show will be on Monday the 22nd. Also, there will be no commentary next week, just the Market Thunder show on Monday. Happy holidays everyone and we’ll talk to you on Monday.

Wednesday’s rally was pointed to that fact that crude oil may have found a low and folks became optimistic after the dovish comments from the Federal Reserve. But yesterday was much different. Crude oil went down and yet markets went up even more. This goes back to the question of whether crude oil really is the issue for what is driving these markets in this frenzy of volatility that we been seeing. The three-day volatility indicator is up to 43.20 and continues to suggest that we are likely to have an increased volatility for several more days.

With prospects that a Santa Claus rally will occur, we could see a new high above the 2079.47 level as early as today and certainly by Tuesday of next week if the market just remains in the current range of volatility.

The markets have had several V bottoms this year and potentially we’ve just witnessed another one. When we declined to 1820 back in October, we saw a sharp reversal for the market trading high as 2072. The market declined down to 1972 in a route that seemed to be about deflationary scares and defaults of Russia and then in an instant all of that doesn’t matter any longer.

It appears that the ongoing accommodative stance by the Fed is the only thing that really matters in the end.

The key number for today on the downside is 2051.05. Penetration of this level would indicate a decline as low as 2039.65. On the upside, a penetration of 2071.45 will set the tone for a new high pushing toward the 2082/2094 levels.

The pattern that’s unfolded over the last several days certainly has been very dynamic from a range perspective. But from a configuration, it suggests that there is now a 60% probability that we will see a new high in this market in the next 3 to 5 sessions.

Today is a weekly close and a close above 2028.25 will keep the bullish tone for next week, suggesting that we will see a further rally and the possibility of a new high by Christmas. There is also other elements coming into play that will suggest that the market can move through 2100 by the end of this month.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2051.05 level today. 

Fed announces liftoff

Oversold conditions prevailed yesterday as the market saw a very sharp rally to the upside. Most of the rally came before the fed FOMC meeting but after the meeting we saw further rallying as the market was up 2% by the end of the session. While the sharp rally was impressive, there’s still a lot of work to do to get the market back in a position to move higher from a trending view. The three-day volatility indicator is at 50.99. This is one the highest levels that I’ve seen for this indicator over the past several years. This suggests that we will get additional heavy volatility days for at least two more sessions to end this week.

The configuration suggests that it is critical that the market closes above 2022.65 today and remains above 2003.15 on the downside. If we can close above the 2022.65 level today it will suggest a further rally towards 2044/2063 that should unfold by early next week.

In the Fed statement yesterday, Janet Yellen made it quite clear that there would most likely be an increase in rates, what she referred to as the liftoff, two meetings from now. This would suggest that at the April meeting we would start to see an increase in the federal funds rate. It’s expected to be a very gradual rate but there are expectations now being built into the markets.

There was a lot to digest today from the Federal Reserve minutes meeting as well as some of the movements in crude oil which finally found what appears to be a minor bottom. Crude was able to bounce back above the $56 level which is the key pivot in the pattern. As long as it remains above 56 we should see a continuation of the rally moving toward 60 to 62 over the next several days. As you would expect, this market is very oversold. It is likely to have more buying interest than selling at this time because of the market sentiment issues.

Should the 2003.15 level not hold today, it would suggest that we would move back down toward 1992.25 which is the key pivot levels in this pattern. At this time there is only a 30% probability for this level to be penetrated.

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2003.15 level today

Crude oil continues its dissent signaling major deflationary forces… Brent crude under $60… Russia panics!

Yesterday’s action was a wild ride as the market declined 1% and then rallied up 1% only to finish back near the lows at 1972.74, down .85%. This close was below the weekly S3 support at 1973.20. This suggests that the market could decline toward the 1954.30/1952.50 levels. There is some minor support at the 1964.05 level. However, a penetration of this level will confirm this move down to this support.

The market action is déjà vu only this time it is declining and won’t stop going down. For a brief period yesterday crude oil bounced off its lows. In response, the market saw a sharp short covering rally trading as high as 2017 before sliding 45 handles to close at the lows of the session. Most of the negative market sentiment was driven by the close of Brent crude oil at the $60 level. In overnight trading, Brent crude is trading at 59.14, down 1.45% as the onslaught continues.

With Russia panicking the night before last, raising their rates sharply to protect the ruble, there are many that are concerned that they are trying to engineer some sort of controlled default. They don’t have a lot more than the interest rates to try to support their currency which worked fairly well. But the Russians and everyone else are wondering the same thing, “Where’s the bottom in crude oil?”

As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, if we were able to close below the $56 level on WTI for the second session, it would signal much lower prices. We’re now looking at a minimum of 52 to 48 on the next leg down. The real question is what happens to the stock market and other financial markets such as high-yield etc. when we reach these levels.

By the close today we will hear from the Federal Reserve and will we hear anything about the general collapse in commodity prices, specifically crude oil and its effects. I think everyone is wondering if the Fed has something up their sleeve to support the crude oil market. They’ve supported every other asset on the planet. Why not crude oil?

But in the end, it’s hard to find anything they could do to support this market. And this is so far out of the box, why would they even consider it? The answer in my opinion is that they will have nothing to say about this particular event other than maybe mentioning a continuation of the extremely low inflation.

There is a lot that can be said about this subject and you can go into a lot of speculation on the details, but in the end it is about what happens to prices. Should crude continue to the 52 to 48 level, it is likely to have further effects on the stock market. The extreme that I can see in the pattern right now is 1937.80/1927.15.

Today will be a pivotal point on several levels. The big news will be around the Fed meeting and also to see where crude oil closes. Unless it closes higher today, I believe the market will continue this downward trek across the board. As we saw yesterday, sharp short covering rallies can occur at any moment and any uptick in crude oil or any sign that there might be an interim bottom will be enough to rally the market back toward the 2020/2040s levels.

Expect continuing volatility as the three-day range indicator is now at 45.61. This is similar to what we saw when the market was rounding from 1820 up to the 2070 levels. This suggests that were likely to see a continuation of these highly volatile sessions trading for the next three sessions as the market continues to probe for some sort of oversold bottom and set up a short covering recovery rally.

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1964.05 level today. 

Market probes for a bottom…

Today marks the beginning of the FOMC meeting. We are not likely to get any news from this meeting until the typical announcement on Wednesday.

Yesterday’s action continued the route as the market declined another 12 handles, pushing the market down to the 1989.63 level. The configuration suggests that the market is likely to reach a bottom between the 1982.25/1973.95 levels.

Yesterday’s low was 1982.26 which has a 60% probability to be the low of this pattern if a higher close is rendered today. It will be critical that the market holds 1982.26 otherwise we will see a further decline toward the 1973.95 level before there will be another opportunity for a low to be formed.

The story in the markets continue to be about crude oil. It closed under $56 yesterday at $55.91. This suggests that there is a further probability for this market to decline if it closes for the second day below this level suggesting that a move toward the 52/48 level is likely.

Today will be the pivotal day in the pattern. If this market does not hold we could see another 2 to 3 sessions of lower prices which in the end will pressure the markets down toward the lower end of expectations for the S&P 500 to the 1973.95 levels.

With two weeks to go in the year, if there is going to be any sort of a U-turn, window dressing is likely to begin sometime between Friday and next Tuesday.

The markets have declined about 3 ½% off their most recent highs. If the support levels mentioned above hold, we could see a firming toward the end of the year. While overall this year has been a rough year for most participants, there could be an emergence of tax selling which would act as keeping a lid on the market for the rest of the year.

The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 1982.25 level today.