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Daily Quant | 2015 | January
uk writings

2015 January

Friday, January 30, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-01-29.2

Random trading range continues…

While Apple could not save the market on Wednesday, Janet Yellen could on Thursday. It appears that Chuck Schumer, a democratic senator, was the messenger this time as Yellen had a partisan meeting suggesting there was no interest rate increases in the near future. This was enough to trigger massive short covering and the market moving from a negative position to closing near the highs of the session.

With today being both a weekly close and a monthly close, there is a lot of significance to the value that the markets end at today. As I have discussed in great detail on the Market Thunder show, a close below 2067.65 today will signal the beginning of a 3 to 4 month topping pattern that is likely to signify a major top. A close below 2051.80 will confirm a further test of the key pivot number at the 1988.40 level.

Yesterday’s action traded down to 1989.18, just short of the support level where the short covering began and was further supported by the leak of the comments by the Federal Reserve chair. The key level on the downside today is 2003.85. A penetration would suggest a retest of yesterday’s low. There currently is only a 30% probability for that to occur.

On the upside, a penetration of 2029.45 will suggest a further rally toward 2038.65/2047.85. The three-day volatility indicator continues to suggest that we will have approximately a 31 handle range for today. This suggests that should the support range between 2013/2003 hold, it would indicate a move toward the 2038.65 level with the potential of going as high as 2047.85.

Overall the market continues to be locked in this trading range of 1990/2065. However, today’s close, should it be below 2018.35 or above 2051.80, will indicate the direction of next week’s range. There is a higher probability for the negative pattern to be signaled with a close below 2018.35 today.

The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2029.45 level today.

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2056.05
R3 2047.85
R2 2038.65
Resistance R1 2029.45
Prior Close 2021.25 +19.09
Support S1 2013.05
S2 2003.85
S3 1994.65
SX 1986.45

 

 

 

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-01-28.2

Apple couldn’t even save the day

Yesterday’s action broke through all support levels, sending the market down to the 2002 level. A combination of earnings and crude oil pressured the markets down.

Crude oil finished into new low territory while supplies grew by 9 million barrels as the oil glut continues to grow. There seems to be no bottom in sight. Meanwhile, the Fed had nothing of substance to counteract the markets’ downward movement.   

Central bankers seem to be panicking. First with the Swiss, then the Indian and Canadian, followed by the UK and the ECB. The US Fed continues to discuss the stronger US economy with weaker international growth.  The puzzle gets more and more confusing as it seems we are just one decision from disaster.

The configuration suggests that if the market declines below the 1995.40 level today then we should see a test of the 1988 lows of just two weeks ago. And should this level be penetrated, there are further implications to the intermediate trends.

It will now take a daily close above the 2037 level to turn this month into a neutral pattern. With only two sessions to go in this month, it is looking more likely that the monthly close will trigger the beginning of a larger topping pattern.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2016.45 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2030.70
  R3 2023.95
  R2 2016.45
Resistance R1 2008.90
Prior Close   2002.16  -27.39
Support S1 1995.40
  S2 1987.90
  S3 1980.35
  SX 1973.60

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-01-27.2

Earnings, Durable Goods crush market but after hours Apple saves the day!

As I mentioned yesterday, it appeared that the trading range was going to continue. It was critical for the market to penetrate the 2062.40 level.  The decline has signaled a continuation of the range as there is very little probabilities for a major decline at this time.

Concerns from Europe triggered a lower open.  Next, earnings form CAT and others set the tone for lower markets early on.  Lastly, Durable Goods orders were released and missed sharply which triggered a full blown sell off. 

The early penetration of the support levels at the 2051.80 level signaled a decline toward the extreme low projection of 2034.65. However, this level was unable to hold as the low of the session was 2019.91. The market was able to recover a bit to settle at the 2029.55 level. 

The release of Apple’s earnings has triggered some short covering combined with pre Fed jitters.  Overnight the markets rebounded suggesting a good portion of the sell will be erased. There is plenty of week left. Should the market recover above the 2039.05 level then a minor upward reversal could unfold. 

The critical level on the downside is the 2020.05 level. A penetration of this level would signal a decline toward the 2010/2006 level.  There currently is only a 30 percent probability for this to occur.

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remains above the 2020.05 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2048.60
  R3 2044.10
  R2 2039.05
Resistance R1 2034.05
Prior Close   2029.55 -27.54
Support S1 2025.05
  S2 2020.05
  S3 2015.00
  SX 2010.55

 

 

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-01-26.2

Trading range continues…

Yesterday’s action held the key support and was able to close moderately higher on the session. The configuration suggests that if the market is able to penetrate through the 2062.40 level then we will see a test of 2074.25/2079.55. A penetration and close above 2079.55 will signal a retest of the historical highs at 2093.55.

Expect to see the 2062.40 level tested early in the session setting the tone for the balance of the day and trailing into Wednesday’s Federal Reserve release.

Intermediate charts continue to have an underlining bullish tone suggesting that the market will continue higher in this pattern if it can break out and close above 2079.55. The critical level on the downside today is 2051.80. Should that level be penetrated then a decline toward the 2039.95/2034.65 levels will be signaled.

The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2051.80 level today.  

 

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2079.55
R3 2074.25
R2 2068.30
Resistance R1 2062.40
Prior Close 2057.09 +5.27
Support S1 2051.80
S2 2045.85
S3 2039.95
SX 2034.65

 

 

 

Monday, January 26, 2015

Posted by | The Weekly Brief | No Comments

Market Overview
2014-08-25 YTD

YTD Performance S&P 500 Pacing2014-08-25 SPPacing

Europe again…. And the Federal Reserve talks…

As we begin this week markets will be focused on the elections in Greece which went to the Liberal party which has defied the European austerity rules that were applied for the financing they have received over the years. It would appear that this will put them directly in conflict with many of those aspects. This will challenge the ECB to change standards or to negotiate with the new government. Either way there will be adjustments that need to be made. Currently, world markets are negative after the elections waiting to see or hear anything from the ECB.

Meanwhile back in the US it’s all about earnings as we go through the next phase of releases. And of course there is the FOMC meeting that happens beginning Tuesday followed by the announcement Wednesday afternoon. It will be interesting to see if the Fed discusses oil prices and other aspects of the situation in Europe that continues to unfold.

Meanwhile the VPM database continues to illustrate that there are very huge trends that are guiding the market at this time. Should the bullish present drop below 28%, currently at 32%, this would suggest a weakening of the overall trend.

By the Box

YTD Performance

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes1

Performance Divergence

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 01/19/2015

2014-08-25 PriorWeek

2014-08-25 PriorWeekLevels

Tuesday

With the holiday shortened week the market started off on a shaky start on Tuesday with markets declining into the midsession only to rally back with the S&P finishing higher by 0.15%. Most of the weakness during the midsession of the day was driven by the crude oil market which continued to be under pressure. A handful of sectors were able to hold off the selling enabling a slightly higher close. There was continuing international news with the International Monetary Fund as they cut their 2015 global growth to 3% from 3.5%. This continues to reflect a lot of the turmoil that is happening primarily in Europe at this time.

Wednesday

The markets enjoyed their third consecutive advance on Wednesday as the S&P was able to finish 0.47% higher. Wednesday’s action was filled with central bank related stories as the Bank of Japan got the ball rolling with lowering its inflation outlook to 1% from 1.7%. This boosted the yen. The Bank of England was next which decided to hold interest rates instead of the rumored hikes that were expected. Not to forget the bank of Canada who lowered rates in response to the lower crude oil prices trying to offset some of their economic losses.

Thursday

Markets continued higher as the S&P was able to close up 1.53% erasing the losses for the year and reclaiming some key levels on the charts. The big news of course was the ECB’s announcement of the $60 billion QE program. Initially the market had a lack luster response but as the day wore on, the market started to move sharply higher.

Friday

The market capped a solid week with a shaky Friday session as the S&P 500 lost 0.55%. Friday’s losses were primarily disappointments over earnings from UPS as the stock declined sharply in reaction which triggered a negative sentiment throughout the day. Most of the selling came in the last two hours as market participants were squaring up books ahead of the Greek elections. There was more caution leading into the weekend then there was optimism.

S&P 500 for 01/23/2015

2015-01-16.2
Friday’s action saw some backfilling as the market sold off due to missed earnings with UPS and hedging prior to the weekend’s elections in Greece. The configuration continues to be in a sideways pattern as I have discussed several times in the last two weeks. The trading action suggests that a continuation of this pattern is likely for at least one to two weeks.

Also the consolidation has caused upward targets for the market to be readjusted on an intermediate basis. Previously there was expectations of the 2200/2300 levels. Because of the contraction of the pattern, we are expecting to see the move toward the 2109 level with extremes of 2155 and 2183. This is a drastic change from the pattern that was unfolding several weeks ago.

This week will be a critical week in the pattern as there is a monthly close coming and we will finally find out whether or not the PPM 1 will close under the 1% level. Should this occur it will start the clock ticking for a 1 to 4 month pattern high that could represent a major hiatus pattern. However, should it finish above the 1% level, this will suggest a continuation of the pattern that we’ve been watching for the last 12 to 14 months.

On the downside today, the critical level is 2038.95. A penetration would suggest that the market would continue down toward the 2026/2018 levels suggesting that this sideways trading range will continue.

There seems to be little to change this pattern and with the pressure coming in from Europe it is likely to cause a continuation of the elongated sideways trading pattern that we entered into seven weeks ago.

The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2057.90 level today.  

 

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 2118.80
R3 2103.00
R2 2085.30
Resistance R1 2067.63
Prior Close   2051.82 +32.40
Support S1 2036.00
S2 2018.35
S3 2000.65
ES 1984.85

Today’s Key Levels

ER 2077.50
R3 2071.40
R2 2064.65
Resistance R1 2057.90
Prior Close   2051.82 -11.33
Support S1 2045.75
S2 2038.95
S3 2032.20
ES 2026.15

Friday, January 23, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-01-22.2

It’s all about central banks…

Finally the ECB and Mario Draghi have gotten their wish. Beginning in March, they are going to be buying $60 billion of sovereign bonds which, by the way, includes some programs that are already in place. So, not all of this is new.

Its sole purpose? To create inflation!

It’s not to create jobs. It’s not to improve the economy or anything else. It’s just for inflation. Deflation scares the central bankers because there’s such a massive buildup of debt on their balance sheets that they realize that it will never get paid down. This program may truly indeed be the final tipping point. The final hurrah.

The markets response yesterday was pretty robust to say the least. And as I’ve been discussing over last several days, I thought that the S&P would run back up into the 2060/2070 levels. This has occurred on the back of yet another bailout. But what we don’t know is whether it will work. After the honeymoon is over, what will happen to the markets?

So once again, we have seen the beginnings of maybe another V bottom after a 5% decline. This will only be confirmed by closing above 2093.55, which is a current historical high on the S&P 500. I know I have proposed this question before, but what are they really trying to achieve? Or is it that they see no way out but to continue on this bizarre escalation of debt and printing of money? I really don’t claim to know what is going to happen, but I can’t imagine the end will end well.

We will have this discussion on the Market Thunder show tomorrow and explore some of the possibilities that could unfold.

Yesterday’s action was able to close back above the 2052 level which was a key pivot area in the pattern. This suggests that the market is likely to continue toward the 2077.95 level. There is substantial resistance at this level and we could see the market react to the downside if we are unable to get over 2070.15 today. It’s going to be critical that we close above 2070.15 today and this be followed by a penetration of 2077.95. Otherwise, the market could fall back into the pattern and we could see us trading back between 2040/2033.

I am still not convinced that we have entered into a new upward trend. It will have to remain above the 2056 level today to maintain the positive slope.

Should the 2056 level be penetrated, this will signal a move directly back to the 2040/2033 levels

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2056.15 level today.

 

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2092.80
R3 2085.80
R2 2077.95
Resistance R1 2070.15
Prior Close 2063.15 +31.03
Support S1 2056.15
S2 2048.30
S3 2040.50
SX 2033.50

 

 

 

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-01-21.2

Canada panics… Lower rates…

The drop in crude oil prices has caused the Bank of Canada to lower its rates in an effort to offset the impact to their economy of the lower income from crude oil. But as usual, the central banks lowering rates and stimulating the economy is viewed as a bullish event.

And of course everyone’s waiting for the conference call by the ECB talking about their QE program which is proposed to be $50 billion per month. Market participants are looking for how long it’s going to go on and the types of assets that they’re going to be buying. Also, it’s already been announced that there is an emergency fund in place for the Greece banks for the election on Sunday so they are preparing for an event there and letting everyone know that they’re going to back the banks.

While all of this excitement is going on, everything points to fractures in the ECB and the European Union in general as there appears to be continued advances that suggests that folks want to get away from the euro zone. Whether or not this results in some material market action or not we will have to wait and see. It’s very difficult to predict any such activity.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s commentary, I expected that there would be a continuation of the bottoming pattern that has been unfolding for the last four sessions. The expectation is for the market to continue to move up toward the 2045 to 2062 level over the next 2 to 3 sessions. The critical level on the downside today is 2018.30. The three day volatility indicator is suggesting that we’re still likely to have about a 30 point range in today’s action.

As mentioned earlier, it’s all about the central banks right now, both in Canada and the ECB, as they have already made moves to indicate a loosening of policy in Canada and a QE program for Europe. The big question is will it work at all. We will have to watch for the reaction by market participants to see how market sentiment acts in the next several days. The general expectation is that it will be positive and we should see the world markets continue to move higher.

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2018.30 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2059.80
  R3 2053.30
  R2 2045.95
Resistance R1 2038.65
Prior Close   2032.12 +9.57
Support S1 2025.60
  S2 2018.30
  S3 2010.95
  SX 2004.45

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-01-20.2

Bottom forms…

Yesterday’s action traded down to the key support at 2004 and reversed from that level to close slightly higher on the session, signaling a minor reversal pattern. As I discussed in the Market Thunder show on Tuesday, the expectation is for the market to move up to the key pivot levels between 2044/2051. A close over 2051 will signal further rally toward 2067.

Markets will be focused on earnings over the next several days as it appears that the European situation will take a backseat at this time. We did see crude oil decline sharply but that had little effect on the overall market sentiment.

If the market can remain above 2008.10 today, we should close higher again pushing toward the 2037/2044 levels.

A penetration of 2008.10 would suggest a retest of yesterday’s low and the possibility of trading down to 1993.65. There currently is only a 30% probability for that to occur.

The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2004.05 level today

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2051.45
  R3 2044.65
  R2 2037.00
Resistance R1 2029.40
Prior Close   2022.55 +3.13
Support S1 2015.75
  S2 2008.10
  S3 2000.50
  SX 1993.65

 

 

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

Market Overview
2014-08-25 YTD

YTD Performance S&P 500 Pacing2014-08-25 SPPacing

Slipping and sliding.

Last week continued to be about the continuing decline in crude oil. While it appears that the crude oil may have put in a climactic bottom, there will still be several days before we’ll know if a low has been printed.

While crude oil is continuing to be under pressure as this week begins, we are fair way from the lows of the pattern. This week will be dominated by over 300 earnings reports that will be released. It is likely that we will get back to business as usual, barring any complete surprises from the international scene.

Last week the SNB (Swiss National Bank) announced the removal of the peg to the euro which caused their currency to rally over 10%, which has decimated several Forex firms as well as just about every Forex trading desk on the planet has millions of dollars of losses. This week the international scene will have all eyes on Greece on Friday as they hold an election. Rumors are the party that is ahead wants to exit the euro. All of the euro proponents continue to say that an exit is not possible for the Greeks. However, if they decide to exit the euro, they may just test the courts.

Markets have also been focused on the ECB with the potential beginning of a quantitative easing program. There is still one more court case to be ruled upon. But typically the ruling that came out last week is how the major Supreme Court is likely to go suggesting that some sort of QE will come into Europe.

Volatility is likely to continue for the next several weeks as these news stories, earnings, and other events continue to unfold. The big day on an economic standpoint will be Thursday and Friday of this week which also holds the biggest release of earnings. Expect plenty of volatility around these events.

By the Box

YTD Performance

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes1

Performance Divergence

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 01/12/2015

2014-08-25 PriorWeek

2014-08-25 PriorWeekLevels

Monday

The market began on a defensive note as the S&P declined 0.81% on the session. The Russell and the Dow Jones outperformed but were still negative on the session. The energy sector was the big laggard as we saw it decline 2.8% as it was responding to the weakness in crude oil. WTI crude finished down 4.9% at 46.07 per barrel.

Tuesday

The market started stronger on Tuesday and it looked like a big turnaround was in the making. However, the absence of any new buying interest turned to selling and the market continued to decline into the close, finishing down by 0.26%. Once again, the commodity sectors kept the pressure on the markets with energy down 0.7% and metals down 1.2%.

Wednesday

The markets opened lower for the fourth consecutive decline as the S&P finished the day lower by 0.58%. The NASDAQ was down slightly less than 0.5% as growth concerns were cited throughout the session, keeping downward pressure on the markets for the entire session until the last two hours when there was a rebound from much worse levels.

Thursday

The market continued what was turning into a big down week as the lows of Thursday was retested at the 1988.12 level. In the end, the S&P finished down 0.92% on the session. The big news overnight was the Swiss bank taking off the peg to the euro dollar at 120, which caused a massive rally in the Swiss franc, literally destroying currency hedges across the planet. This action happened on a surprise meeting that caught everybody flat-footed. Meanwhile crude oil began a rebound rallying up to $51, but then faded as we came into the close toward the $46.57 level.

Friday

Friday the market began on a weaker note by actually printing a new low for the week at the 1988.12 level. The S&P 500 then reversed for the balance of the session, rallying to close up 1.34%. This erased some of the previous declines for the week as the S&P finished down 1.24% for the week. Most of this action was generated by the stabilization of the crude oil market which helped to trigger a more positive market sentiment. The big movers were the discretionary sector, up 1.3% as financial, industrial and technology all finished up around 1% or more for the session. This set a positive tone and a solid bid into Friday’s close.

S&P 500 for 01/16/2015

2015-01-16.2
 Last week’s action saw the market trade down below the 1992 level to 1988.10. The configuration suggests that the short-term objectives were negated suggesting that we are back into a trading range which is likely to remain below 2050.80 this week. However, should we break above 2050.80 then we could see a further rally toward 2067.40.  There is only a 30% probability for that to occur at this time.

The intermediate charts continue to show a slight underlying trend to the upside suggesting that were likely to attempt this 2050.80 level early in the week.

The intermediate/longer-term objectives of 2231/2330 continue to be valid. It will take a penetration of 1972.60 to negate that upside target.

The VPM database continued to see some selling across the board from an individual stock standpoint as the database has moved back to the 32.4% bullish level. As I have discussed over the past several months, it will take a move back above the 42% invested level to get into a bullish mode. As it stands, many of the stock portfolios have a fair amount of cash between 40 to 60%. This is likely to continue if we see these choppy markets unfold for the next several weeks.

This week will be a pivotal week suggesting a bias to the upside for the first 2 to 3 sessions. The critical level on the downside today is 2004.05. A penetration would suggest a move down toward the 1995.95/1988.15 levels.

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2004.05 level today.  

 

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 2082.20
R3 2067.40
R2 2050.80
Resistance R1 2034.25
Prior Close   2019.42 -25.39
Support S1 2004.60
S2 1988.05
S3 1971.45
ES 1956.65

Today’s Key Levels

ER 2050.15
R3 2042.80
R2 2034.80
Resistance R1 2026.70
Prior Close   2019.42 +26.75
Support S1 2012.15
S2 2004.05
S3 1995.95
ES 1988.70

Friday, January 16, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-01-15.2

Did the Swiss just burst the bubble?…

As I was preparing today’s commentary, I couldn’t stop thinking about the Bear Stearns situation back in 2007. From that experience we know it doesn’t take the largest bank to have an issue. It just takes one of them to expose the rest of the marketplace and its issues.

I believe the Swiss have made a complete rejection of the entire euro project. They no longer want to be part of it as it was destroying their economy overall. While they maintained their own currency, in the end it may play out to be the smartest thing that they have done.

When writing Thursday morning’s commentary the Indian central bank had lowered rates and triggered markets into a sharp rally. At around 5 AM EST the announcement came from the Swiss to drop the peg to the euro. When that happened, the market dropped over 22 handles and continued to decline after the open here in the US.

Many thought I was crazy when I said the Bear Stearns incident was the beginning of something much larger as it was obvious there were systemic issues that were going on. If you look at the move by the Swiss and now there are reports that there are runs on banks in Greece, which has been rumored to leave the euro themselves, it appears that the whole project is beginning to unwind.

I think the Swiss move is also timely in that the ECB is about to start a QE program and the Swiss seem to be rejecting it as well along with the great Keynesian experiment. Maybe it’s the first time that a central banker is finally stepping out against these insane policies that we have been watching over the last several years, knowing intuitively that it could not be good building debt at the level that we have seen.

There’s many aspects of these events to discuss. I will cover that in the Market Thunder show on Friday at 12 noon.

As I discussed in Monday’s commentary, I believed that this week was going to be a huge pivot week. I believed that we were going to find out what the reality of this market was going forward, or possibly a trend failure revealed this week.

Wednesday’s penetration of the 1992 level negated the upward objectives that I discussed toward the 2113/2159 levels. It is likely that we could challenge the key pivot number on the intermediate basis, which is the 1972.55 level. A penetration of this level will negate the intermediate to long-term objectives of 2231/2320. Should this penetration occur, it will set the tone and suggest that we will begin a decline toward the 1924/1900 levels. This is likely to be a prelude to a retest of the 1820 lows and the possibility of trading down to 1640. This is all hinged upon the 1972.55 level. A penetration of this level anytime in this pattern in the next 2 to 3 weeks will confirm a retest of the 1820 lows and a major top.

As we’ve all known for many months, at some point in time there will be a historical high printed in this market. It could be several years before we see another record set. I continue to argue that even though it was not part of the mainline discussion, when the national debt went over the 18 trillion mark is when the markets have witnessed increase volatility. We’ve seen massive deflation due to the crude oil market collapsing along with many other commodities.

The key level on the downside today is 1984.15. If this is level is penetrated then expect to see a move directly to 1974.60/1972.55. The answers to all of the probabilities mentioned above could be known early in the session today.

Today could be a very ugly session just due to the potential mass liquidation in front of a long weekend. Does anyone really want to stay long with the potential of unraveling in Greece or Europe itself from a currency perspective? You have to ask yourself, why are US treasuries at 1.77 percent? Why is all of the money flowing into a safe haven investment? Is it potentially the smart money getting into the place that they think is the safest? We will soon find out!

It would take a move over 2028.85 to signal any type of rally today. There currently is a 20% probability for that to occur.

The market should open lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2020.75 level today.  

 

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2028.85
R3 2020.75
R2 2010.75
Resistance R1 2001.20
Prior Close 1992.67 -18.60
Support S1 1984.15
S2 1974.60
S3 1965.05
SX 1956.50

 

 

 

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