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Daily Quant | 2015 | May
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2015 May

Friday, May 29, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-05-28.2

Month of May ends and market holds its breath for GDP…

No Market Thunder show today. We will see you on Monday…

The first quarter final GDP update is expected to show a -0.8% decline which had previously been reported as +0.2%. There have been inaccuracies in a number of the government reports of late so it will be interesting to see what type of weight market participants put on this number.

From a technical viewpoint, momentum continues to stall. The market has traded around this 2121 level several times before.  Yesterday’s close at 2120.79 sets the tone for the market to retrace back toward support between 2116/2111. It will take a close above the 2135.90 level to signal higher prices for next week. A close below 2099.60 will signal a negative tone.

The most likely outcome is that it will continue in the sideways range, possibly retesting the higher end of the range at the 2135 level.

Today is also the final day of the month of May. A close over 2118.80 will keep an upward bias for the month of June. As I’ve discussed many times, I believe somewhere between June and the end of September we will see a major high in the markets.

While there are still probabilities for the market to move into higher levels, overall momentum is continuing a topping pattern.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2130.25 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2139.70
R3 2135.20
R2 2130.25
Resistance R1 2125.25
Prior Close 2120.79 -2.69
Support S1 2116.35
S2 2111.35
S3 2106.35
SX 2101.90

 

 

 

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-05-27.2

Yo-yo market continues…

Yesterday’s action mimicked many of the days of the past as the market traded down 1% on Tuesday followed by a day up nearly 1% on Wednesday. The market was able to close over the critical pivot number of 2121.90 with the close of 2123.48. This indicates that the market should continue higher today toward the resistance between the 2132.40/2137.05 levels. However, the pattern that has unfolded for so many days is that we will reverse and close slightly lowered today, remaining in this sideways chop.

There is some economic news coming out today that could trigger a more positive sentiment and move the markets back toward some of the upward objectives I discussed in the past of 2148/2163. While this is still a probability, without some substantial news or event to drive the market, we are likely to continue in the same pattern.

Nothing has changed since Monday’s Market Thunder show. But as we near the end of May, it is becoming more obvious that we will finish the month on the upside, closing above 2085. This suggests that we could see higher highs in June.

As the market continues to chop around, there doesn’t seem to be any excesses on the downside or the upside to play off of for market sentiment to change from its current expectations which is no change.

The key level on the downside today is 2114.60. Penetration of this level would suggest the market would move back toward the 2105/2099 levels. Currently, there is only a 30% probability for this level to be penetrated.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2127.70 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2141.25
  R3 2137.05
  R2 2132.40
Resistance R1 2127.70
Prior Close   2123.48 +19.28
Support S1 2019.30
  S2 2114.60
  S3 2109.90
  SX 2105.70

 

 

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Posted by | Uncategorized | No Comments
2015-05-26.2

Market fails again!

I have been proclaiming over the last several sessions that it is critical that the market close above 2135.90 to confirm the higher price objectives generated by the new high close. There was a combination of technical factors that led to yesterday’s sharp selloff. One was the low level of the VIX at the 12.15 level. This was the lowest level since December 2014. The second was the penetration of the 2116 level which triggered liquidation orders pushing the market all the way down to 2099.18 before a low was established.  

In past situations it has been difficult for the markets to follow through after a sharp up or down day. Typically they have bounced back in the opposite direction. Should we get a further close under the 2096.95 level today then this would suggest that a further decline toward the 2090 pivot level is likely.

The configuration suggests that a rally is likely to unfold early in the session. It will take a penetration of 2011.50 to signal a minor reversal. Currently there is a 40% probability for this to occur. A penetration would suggest a move back to the key pivot zone between 2118/2121. However, the most likely event would be a penetration of the 2096.95 level. Should this occur, it will suggest that a move toward the 2090 level. A further penetration would suggest a decline to 2062.40.

The recent high at 2134.72 represented a test of the R2 resistance level projected for May at 2134.52. The market exceeded this level by only $.20 before the reversal occurred. This suggests that should the market close down below 2085.51 then a month downward reversal will be signaled. This would suggest further deterioration in the months of June and July of the secular bull market that has been unfolding since 2009.

This suggests that the next several days will be extremely important for the next several months of activity as we close out the month of May.

We could finally be at a tipping point for the markets to begin the final topping phase. As I have mentioned on the Market Thunder show, the VPM bullish percent is at 50%. This suggests that the market is vulnerable to further declines should the bullish percent decline below 42% in the next several weeks.

The lack of participation has been a primary feature in this rally. We have not been able to get a substantial amount of stocks to trend upward as the rally has been very narrow in nature which is typical of the final run in a bull market.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2111.50 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2118.75
  R3 2115.30
  R2 2111.50
Resistance R1 2107.65
Prior Close   2104.20 -21.86
Support S1 2100.75
  S2 2096.95
  S3 2093.10
  SX 2089.70

 

 

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Posted by | The Weekly Brief | No Comments

Market Overview
2014-08-25 YTD

YTD Performance

GDP to go negative!

This week will be focused on Friday’s upcoming GDP report.  Expectations are for the first quarter to move to a -0.8%. What will this mean to the market participants? It means that the Fed will not lower rates. While most market participants anxiously waited for Janet Yellen to speak on Friday, they found out nothing new but got more of the same. As I have discussed many times in the past, the Fed has nothing but rhetoric to offer the markets any longer.

The massive buildup of debt has finally come to an end as the Fed wants to move on. There’s quite a bit of economic news coming out today with Durable Goods leading the way, followed by the Case Shiller Housing Index, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Fed Manufacturing Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey. After this barrage of reports is released, market participants will be focused on the GDP and what it means for the markets.

As we have seen for most of this year, markets have gyrated in a trading range for most of the previous five months. While they are beginning to show signs that they want to move higher out of the zone, it doesn’t appear to be driven by economic news or even expectations. As the days and months unfold, it is becoming more difficult to come up with an explanation for the current levels of the stock market.

As I have mentioned over the past several weeks, everything continues to be centered on the treasury market. But with the market closing above the 2.18% level at 2.215%, this sets the tone for further advances to move toward the 2.30% pivot zone. A close above this level this week will suggest a further move toward the 2.54/2.74% level over the next 12 to 18 weeks.

As I have discussed in the past, it appears that the Fed is way behind the power curve as far as raising rates. While many are looking at current economics for guidance, the reality is that if the interest rates were not being held down an artificial level then they would be much higher based upon current economic activity. I strongly believe that market participants will continue to drive the long end of the yield curve up over the next several months. There appears to be very little that the Fed can do to counteract this evolving trend.

By the Box

YTD Performance

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes1

Performance Divergence

2014-08-25 StyleBoxes2

SP 500 for the week of 05/18/2015

2014-08-25 PriorWeek

2014-08-25 PriorWeekLevels

Looking back on last week

Monday

Markets started off the week on a flat note but were able to move higher through the session as the S&P closed up 0.30%. The NASDAQ composite led the way up as it rallied to close up 0.6%. The markets continued to trade higher in general rendering new historical highs. While tech was certainly a leader, heavily weighted financials were up 0.5% and healthcare was also up 0.5%, keeping a solid bid in the market into the close.

Tuesday

Tuesday’s session was very choppy as the S&P 500 settled flat on the session, down just 0.06% while the Dow Jones was up 0.1%. For the most part we traded in a five-point range right into the close. We saw a bounce midsession to extend the range 29 points before settling flat on the session. This was the second day healthcare and financials lead the way up 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.

Wednesday

Markets traded in a very choppy session again with the midweek session finishing down 0.09% on the S&P. The NASDAQ composite also closed unchanged as the market spent the first half of the session near the flat lines with a slight spike toward the end of the session only to see it settle negative. There were no real featured news or any events that affected market sentiment.

Thursday

Markets opened flat, rallied early in the session, and then traded in a choppy sideways zone to finish up 0.23%. Most of the advance was triggered by the slightly better than expected home sales report. Also, the treasury market moved down to the 2.19% level as many market participants continued to expect the Fed to maintain the current rate.

Friday

Equity markets opened slightly lower in reaction to the core CPI up 0.3% which was a little higher than expected. This is the largest monthly increase since January 2013. This lead to some speculation that the uptick in inflation would provide ammunition for an argument favoring a rate hike in the near term. The markets remained in a sideways zone waiting for Janet Yellen’s testimony which gave no new insights to anything. However, it did rally the market back to unchanged before it faded to close down 0.22% for the session but higher for the week by 0.16%. In the end there was nothing that was likely to affect the markets from a fundamental standpoint prior to the long Memorial Day weekend holiday.

S&P 500 for 05/22/2015

2015-05-08.2

Friday’s action was very choppy, finishing the week slightly up but with no real features other than we continue to eke out slightly higher highs moving the markets into historical territory.

The configuration suggests that the market is likely to continue to move slightly higher with a minimum objective of 2148. It is critical during the next two weeks that the market remains above 2108. A close below this level would suggest a minor pattern failure suggesting a decline back toward the 2074 levels. However, there is currently only a 30% probability for this to occur.

The short-term has offered little insight into movement as the intermediate charts suggest that the market is likely to continue to move to this minimum objective of 2148. Should the market close above the 2135.90 level, it will confirm a move to 2148 with the possibilities of moving toward the 2179/2198 levels over the next 6 to 8 weeks.

As I mentioned last week, it is critical that the market trades above the 2135.90 level over the next several days or risk yet another pattern failure. The VIX has closed at the lowest level on a weekly basis since December 2014. This suggests that we are dangerously close to a potential high unless the market can move through these resistance levels I mentioned above.

The VPM models saw some slight selling again pushing the bullish percent back under 50% to the 49.64% level. As I have discussed before, there seems to be nothing to get an expansion in the number of stocks that are participating in this lackluster rally that we’ve seen this year. With expectations of negative GDP numbers, there doesn’t appear to be anything likely anytime soon that will trigger a substantial rally based upon economic considerations.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2121.15 level today.

This Week’s Key Levels

ER 2161.40
R3 2153.10
R2 2143.75
Resistance R1 2134.40
Prior Close   2126.06 +3.33
Support S1 2117.70
S2 2108.40
S3 2099.05
ES 2090.70

Today’s Key Levels

ER 2135.90
R3 2133.60
R2 2131.00
Resistance R1 2128.40
Prior Close   2126.06 -4.76
Support S1 2123.75
S2 2121.15
S3 2118.55
ES 2116.20

Friday, May 22, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-05-21.2

Markets move higher, waiting for Yellen to speak…

Yesterday’s action was able to push the S&P 500 into a new closing high but has failed to penetrate the key 2135.35 pivot number. It is still critical that we close above this level today to signal higher prices. However, the configuration and a higher close yesterday has signaled some new targets with a minimum of 2171 and extreme of 2190/2202. While we have not seen an extreme acceleration out of this range, the bias continues to be to the upside for the next several days.

The critical level on the downside is the 2122.70 level. A penetration of this level would suggest a fall back to the 2111 level but there is only a 30% probability for that to occur.

The big story that has given some room to the upside is that the 10 year treasuries have declined below the critical 2.24 level, closing at 2.185 yesterday. If the market remains above 2.16 at the close today, it will keep a positive tone for the next several days, otherwise suggesting that interest rates will continue to increase back toward the 2.24/2.30 levels.

The treasuries continue to be the key to the market movement over the next several weeks. It will take a close above 2.30 to signal higher levels. Should this occur, the first minimum objective is 2.40 with the extremes now of 2.62/2.81 that this will not be confirmed unless we get a close above the 2.30 level on a weekly basis. There currently is only a 30% probability for that to occur this week. This suggests that the market will continue to trade between 2.14/2.30 for the next several days.

The market should open flat to higher with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2122.70 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2141.50
R3 2138.95
R2 2136.15
Resistance R1 2133.35
Prior Close 2130.82 +4.97
Support S1 2128.30
S2 2125.50
S3 2122.70
SX 2120.15

 

 

 

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-05-20.2

Markets continue in lackluster mode…

The Fed revealed that they have no intention of raising rates in June. Market participants found some enthusiasm to rally the market briefly, but it quickly faded into a negative close again as the selling came in in the last hour. It will be critical that the market gets above the 2135.35 level in the next two sessions or there is a risk for a move back down toward the 2111/2099 levels.

As I’ve mentioned several times in the past, There is very little fundamental news or impetus for the markets to sustain a move higher. It would appear that the market’s only hope is that the Fed would say something that would help to stimulate more buying.

But in the end it is clear that there is a continuation of risk in the debt markets. The 10 year notes continued to trade just above the 224 pivot number. Should we close above that level on Friday then we are likely to see a surge in yields next week. The key pivot on the 10 year is now the 2.30% level. A penetration will suggest a surge of yields towards the 2.54% level.

While these higher yields that I’m suggesting, should they get triggered, do not necessarily mean that the stock market will decline, there is quite a bit of vulnerability in the current pattern that is unfolding. The three-day VPM rangefinder is currently just above 11 which has increased from 9.15 yesterday. While this is helpful in keeping the general trend in place, there still is a vulnerability to the downside should the 2120.45 level be penetrated today.

Should this occur, it would signal a move down to the 2115.05/2111.45 levels. There currently is only a 40% probability for this to occur. Most likely we will remain in a narrow range between the 2131/2120 levels.

The market should open flat to lower, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2134.10 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2136.65
  R3 2134.10
  R2 2131.25
Resistance R1 2128.40
Prior Close   2125.85 -1.98
Support S1 2123.30
  S2 2120.45
  S3 2117.60
  SX 2115.05

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-05-19.2

Could Meredith Whitney be right? Is a muni bond meltdown on the way?

Back in 2011 bank analyst Meredith Whitney talked about the huge meltdown in the municipal bond market that was going to occur. Often times in making the calls like this the timing is very difficult.

Back in the days of my trading floor exploits, my nickname was Dr. Given. I would often make calls that were inevitable to happen and the bulk of the times I was right. However, I was always cornered on the timing when it would happen. That is where the vulnerability in the calls come in.

Recently, the VPM models have been dumping just about anything that looks like a municipal bond. The municipal bond market has actually done quite well over the last three plus years since Whitney’s call was made. But now there are several issues starting to show up.

Chicago may be the potential tipping point as it’s been downgraded more than Greece lately. Many of the rating agencies have them rated as negative to junk. Due to recent rulings in the Illinois courts they have made it impossible for counties and other municipalities to file bankruptcy. It will take the legislature to change the laws for these counties to be able to file bankruptcy like Detroit did. 

Chicago is just the tip of the iceberg of what potentially lies out in this marketplace for potential disaster in the municipal and high-yield corporate debt markets. The patterns that are showing up across the board in interest rates are continuing to suggest that the markets will see a readjustment of how they have been structured over the last six years during the recovery from the great recession.

As I have discussed many times on the Market Thunder show and in commentary, I believe that the initial rise in interest rates is not likely to cause any material negative effects to the stock market unless they rise too fast triggering concerns with liquidity in the bond market.

I believe it will be very important to watch the developments in these secondary debt markets such as high-yield, corporate, and municipal bonds. This readjustment in interest rates is long overdue. Interest rates have been artificially held down. As I’ve discussed several times in the past, I believe that the dog is finally going to wag the tail. In other words, market participants are going to decide where the interest rates will go next, not the Fed.

There seems to be very few market participants that don’t agree that rates are going to rise. Most of these people are focused on the actions of the Federal Reserve. We have been conditioned over the last six years to think that the Fed is driving the yields and that this is the way it will be from this point forward. In the past this has not at all been the way that the markets unfold. I strongly believe that the market forces will come into play to push yields higher and you’ll start to see a dislocation of capital occur as this happens.

Many have pointed out that even though interest rates are rising, the stock market was able to move higher. But during this period of time, the stock market was much lower in price and configured much differently than it is today. With markets at historical highs, the possibility of the continuation of a strong US dollar, interest rates moving higher, and other adjustments that are occurring in the economy, we are likely to be at a point in history where a substantial turning point can occur.

From my viewpoint, I see a continuation to the upside for stocks in the short run. But in the long run, we are approaching the ultimate top in the stock markets. With municipal bonds currently leading the way on the downside, we are seeing liquidation across the board when it comes to all aspects of the credit markets. One thing VPM is very good at is detecting large shifts in the secular and intermediate trends. It has definitely been telling us a lot about the credit markets for vulnerability in the past several weeks.

While there continues to be probabilities for the stock market to move higher, there seems to be very little probabilities for the continued appreciation in the credit markets. This sets the tone for the final stage of the secular trends as we work through the second quarter of this year.

Yesterday’s action in the stock market was very lackluster as we saw the market move up toward key resistance for the week at the 2137 level with an intra-day high of 2133.02. The markets faded after reaching these new highs to close slightly lower on the session as it traded in a very sloppy sideways pattern into the close.

The configuration suggests that it is critical that the market gets above the 2134.80 level today or risk the probability for a decline back toward the 2118.70 level. Penetration of this level will suggest that the markets will decline further towards 2111/2099.45.

Also, the three-day volatility indicator has dropped below 10. Typically when this occurs we see volatility increase in the next 2 to 3 sessions with the volatility on the downside. The VIX index has traded back down to the low 12 handle at 12.33. This also points to a potential resistance point on the markets.

This being the case, it will be incredibly important for the market to move out of this range and move toward the minor objectives that I’ve talked about between 2154/2166 levels. Failure to get through this level will set the tone again for a decline back toward the previous trading range that we were stuck in for several months.

The market should open flat to higher with a 60 percent probability to close lower should the market remain below the 2134.80 Level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2136.96
  R3 2134.80
  R2 2132.40
Resistance R1 2129.95
Prior Close   2127.83 -1.37
Support S1 2125.70
  S2 2123.25
  S3 2120.85
  SX 2118.70

 

 

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-05-18.2
When will bad news be bad news?

As the markets unfold, sentiment is continuing to be affected by the expectation that poor economic news will keep interest rates low and therefore markets rising. While this continues to be counterintuitive, at some stage the weakening economy will ultimately affect topline corporate growth as well as earnings multiples as we move forward. This will eventually put downward price pressure on stocks. It appears as though this logic will not come into play for a while until there is some sort of surprise in the markets. 

Expectations that there will be a deal with Greece is pushing Europe higher. Consequently, this is keeping overall market sentiment across the planet positive. There seems to be little that will shake the secular bull market out of its current upward trek.

Yesterday’s action saw a continued follow through on the upside as the market was able to move to the 2129.20 level on the closing basis. This was the third day in a row for historic highs. The patterns that are emerging suggest that we should continue at least to the 2154/2166 levels over the next 3 to 5 sessions. However, it will be critical that the market remains above 2115.90 for the next two sessions to keep this pattern intact.

While we’re not seeing a massive acceleration on the short term charts, we are continuing to see a surge in the intermediate momentum suggesting that the market will continue higher for the next several weeks. 

The markets shrugged off the rise of treasuries yields back to the 2.23% level. As I’ve discussed several times in the past, it will take a move above the 2.33 level to signal a negative reaction in the stock market. For the moment, it appears that treasuries will remain locked between 2.18% and 2.28% for the next several sessions.

The market should open flat to higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2115.90 Level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2142.50
  R3 2139.35
  R2 2135.85
Resistance R1 2132.35
Prior Close   2129.20 +6.47
Support S1 2126.05
  S2 2122.55
  S3 2119.05
  SX 2115.90

Friday, May 15, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-05-14.2

Market participants focused on the bond market…

Yesterday’s action saw the 10 year notes decline in yield to the 2.239% level. As I have discussed over the last several sessions, the support is around 2.17 and we did spike up to 2.33. It is likely to consolidate in this range for the next several days. With today being a weekly close, if yields close above 2.24, it will suggest that we will see a continuation of higher yields for the next 2 to 3 weeks. The key pivot point on the yield is at 2.05. It will take a penetration of this level to negate the upward bias.

The dollar continued to slide as well yesterday as it is quickly approaching major support at the 91.17 level. Should it breach this level, then we are likely to see a substantial bounce from that level back to around the 94.30/96.75 levels. As I’ve discussed on the Market Thunder show many times, I expect to see a consolidation between the 91/96 levels before the market can move higher toward the 104/108 levels.

Meanwhile, the stock market surged sharply higher as it penetrated the key resistance at the 2106.30 level early in the session. This triggered sharp short covering, pushing the market into a new historical high close above the 2121 level at 2121.90. This suggests that the market should continue to the upside as this breakout has signaled a new price objectives on the upside with a minimum of 2135 with the extreme levels at 2154/2166.

The key level on the downside today is 2111.95. A penetration would suggest a decline back to the 2107/2102 level. There currently is only a 30% probability for this to occur.

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close higher, should the market remain above the 2111.95 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

RX 2139.30
R3 2135.05
R2 2130.20
Resistance R1 2125.40
Prior Close 2121.10 +22.62
Support S1 2116.80
S2 2111.95
S3 2107.20
SX 2102.90

 

 

 

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Posted by | The Daily | No Comments

2015-05-13.2

Bond rout continues…

Yesterday’s close on the treasury market at 2.28% is the highest close that we’ve seen for nearly 5 months. There continues to be an acceleration to the upside. The selling in Europe continues as well as the bund has climbed to .734%. Market participants are continuing to liquidate dollar holdings of treasuries moving money back to Europe as the Eurodollar is continuing higher as it trades up into the 115 level.

As I have discussed before in this current scenario, it is clear that the declining dollar and rising rates has everything to do with the unwind of the carry trade as nearly 34% of the 7 to 10 year maturity range is held by foreign investors. The Federal Reserve owns 36% of this maturity range and the balance is held by banks and other institutions.

This sets the tone for very low liquidity is it does not take much selling to move this market substantially. The dog is definitely wagging its tail now as the Fed continues to lose control over the market. With the bund market also moving from 0.2% to .73%, this shows that a combination of nervousness over a Grexit and the return of overseas money is boosting the Eurodollar which is putting a wet blanket on the ECB’s plans for QE. We could see the German Bund move as high as 1.5% to 2% before this move ends. This would pushed the treasury market toward the 2.55 percent level.

Meanwhile, activity in the US stock market continues to be lackluster with no follow-through on the upside after Friday’s big rally back toward the 2121 level. We’re seeing the market continue in a very flat pattern since that trade last Friday. It is likely to continue toward the 2086.60 level if the market trades below 2094.80 today.

There is some news coming out today with Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index. Producer prices are expected show a slight increase of 0.2%. Anything above that may be a sign that there’s some inflation coming back in which most likely will cause further movement in the treasury market to the upside in yield.

The market should open higher, with a 60 percent probability to close lower, should the market remain below the 2106.30 level today.  

Today’s Key Levels

  RX 2114.05
  R3 2110.40
  R2 2106.30
Resistance R1 2102.15
Prior Close   2098.48 -0.64
Support S1 2094.80
  S2 2090.70
  S3 2086.60
  SX 2082.90

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